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研究生:楊媛婷
研究生(外文):Yuan-Ting Yang
論文名稱:台灣政府支出結構與經濟成長關係之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Relationship between the Composition of Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Taiwan
指導教授:李顯峰李顯峰引用關係
口試委員:謝德宗羅光達
口試日期:2016-07-13
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:104
語文別:中文
論文頁數:57
中文關鍵詞:經濟成長政府支出結構向量自我迴歸模型向量誤差修正模型
外文關鍵詞:Economic GrowthStructure of Government ExpenditureVARVECM
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:6
  • 點閱點閱:380
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本文探討樣本期間自1962年至2014年,台灣政府支出結構與經濟成長的關係,其中台灣政府支出結構按政事別可區分為:一般政務支出、國防支出及經濟發展支出等。實證研究結果發現,教育科學文化支出長期對於經濟成長呈現正相關;經濟發展支出、國防支出及一般政務支出則呈現負相關。經濟成長與國防支出呈現短期正相關,可能是因為國防支出會有採購立即性的商品,將使得短期經濟成長;短期經濟發展支出與經濟成長呈現正相關,可能是因為在大量基礎建設的時代,對經濟成長有充分的影響,但現在台灣大型基礎建設都已完成,長期效果還是與經濟成長呈現負相關;教育支出短期呈現顯著負相關,是因為人力資本累積速度較慢,並不會有立即性影響,進而使得經濟成長與教育支出呈現短期負相關;社會安全與退撫支出,則是長短期皆無顯著相性。

This study analyzes the relationship between the structure of government expenditure and economic growth rate in Taiwan with the sample period from 1962 to 2014. Specifically, the structure of government expenditure could be divided into three categories: the expenditure on general government, the expenditure on national defense and the expenditure on economic development. The empirical results indicate that the economic growth rate is positively related to the expenditure on education, science and culture; on the other hand, the economic growth rate is negatively related to expenditure on the expenditure on general government, national defense and economic development. In the short term, the correlation between the economic growth rate and expenditure on national defense is positive because of the expenditure includes the spending on the purchase of instant commodities leading to the temporary economic growth. In addition to that, the expenditure on economic development also positively correlates with the economic growth in the short term. Possible explanation might be that a large number of infrastructure was constructed in the past and it consequently induced the fast-pace economic growth; however, most infrastructure had been completely established so that the situation provoked a negative correlation between the expenditure on economic development and the economic growth rate in the long term. Besides, the expenditure on education negatively correlates with the economic growth rate due to the slow accumulation of human capital having no instant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, expenditure on social security, retirement and relief have no significant effect on the economic growth rate.

目錄
口試委員會審定書………………………………………………………I
中文摘要………………………………………………………………….II
英文摘要………………………………………………………………….III
表目錄…………………………………………………………………….V
圖目錄…………………………………………………………………….VI
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與背景………………..…………………………..1
第二節 研究目的與架構…………………..………………………..4
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………...….6
第一節 凱因斯效果與Wagner法則……………………………..…6
第二節 政事別政府支出與經濟成長影響……………………….....7
第三章 研究方法
第一節 資料範圍來源及研究流程…………………………..…….12
第二節 資料檢定方法….………………………………...………...14
第三節 模型處理………..…………………………...……………..19
第四章 實證分析………………………………………...………………23
第一節 資料概述………..………………...………………………..23
第二節 變數檢定………..……………...…………………………..27
第三節 向量誤差模型………………………….………………......31
第四節 因果關係檢定………………………….…………………..34
第五節 衝擊反應分析………………………….…………………..35
第五章 結論與建議……………………………….…………………....37
參考文獻…………..……………………………………………………...38
附表1 向量自我迴歸估計….………………………………………......45
附表2 向量誤差修正估計……….…………………………………......55



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