臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

中文摘要：
本研究為使用財務分析法中的財務分析工具及公式，如: 資本資產定價模型(CAPM), 加權平均資本成本計算方法(WACC), 自由現金流量之淨現值法(Free Cash Flow Method with Net Present Value of BRK.A)等研究方法, 來研究分析華倫巴菲特之於美國已上市多年的控股公司: 波克夏海瑟威公司。
波克夏海瑟威為紐約證券交易所(NYSE)市場之公開發行股票之公司, 其公司旗下擁有許多富比士排行榜中之全球500大企業之股票並持有大量比例的股票, 如:IBM, 可口可樂, 艾克森美孚等知名的公開發行股票公司。波克夏海瑟威是一間全球性的控股公司, 總公司聘顧了相對於公司大資本額之比例較少的員工(不超過30名正職員工), 董事長兼執行長: 華倫巴菲特和副董事長: 查理孟格, 專注於大型企業的股票投資, 一同打造了波克夏海瑟威光輝的投資歷史紀錄, 並成為全世界之公開發行市場每一股最高股價的紀錄公司, 於2016年更達成每年平均淨值之高報酬之成長率: 19.2%(Book Value Compounded Annual Gain)長期超越美國大盤指數之一的標普500指數之每年成長率: 9.7%(S&P 500 Index)。
本研究發現, 波克夏海瑟威之不發股利的公司政策, 和華倫巴菲特優異的投資方式, 讓公司擁有許多稅後之保留盈餘(Retained Earnings)之資金用於投資股票和準備現金並將其成為封閉式的投資基金公司, 讓股東享受每年超越大盤的成長率, 以及波克夏海瑟威旗下之大型保險公司們大量的保險浮存金使波克夏海瑟威, 每年都有充足的低成本之現金用於投資於大型的世界級公司之股票投資, 並使波克夏海瑟威公司的淨值成長, 平均以每年高額成長的自由現金流量(Free Cash Flow Annual): 12.82%(使用2009~2013年之波克夏海瑟威之年度報告書)用於投資。
波克夏海瑟威更成為富比士財富500大公司之第4大公司, 和富比士全球500大公司之第14大公司, 是價值型投資者和股票投資人很值得學習和效法的個案分析之個案公司及極優的股票投資之選擇(同時波克夏A股和B股都是極優的投資標的, A股更為標普500信用評等為AA和穆迪Moody's評為: Aa2的信用評等)。而華倫巴菲特其優異且獨特管理方式更是MBA商管學生需努力學習的傑出典範。

This study uses a case method on Warren Buffett and his company “Berkshire Hathaway” with financial statement analysis by using financial analysis method of annual report from year (2009~2013) of Berkshire Hathaway Inc..
This study will focus on the financial method in researching on Berkshire Hathaway and also will mention about the philosophy about the Value Investing and intrinsic value, what Berkshire Hathaway biggest several succeed factors there are.
The research objectives are to discover how did the world highest stock price company make its perfect performance and how is Berkshire Hathaway’s financial status to provide a business model guidance and the case study learning of Berkshire Hathaway to MBA students.
The conclusion in this research we figure out that the investment strategies of Berkshire Hathaway are long-term holding many outstanding world’s top common stocks that enclosed holding fund with no dividend policy that making a compound interest machine, continuously buying back their treasury shares and common stocks policy and invest insurance company by using their floating money from several subsidiaries insurance company that build a huge Group of Berkshire Hathaway.

ABSTRACT................................................................04
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.........................................................05
CONTENT.................................................................07
LIST OF TABLES..........................................................09
LIST OF FIGURES.........................................................10
CHAPTER I. Introduction................................................11
I.1. Research Background and Motivation................................11
I.2. Research Objectives...............................................12
I.3. Research Content..................................................13
I.4. Research Focus and Limitation.....................................14
CHAPTER II. LITERATURE REVIEW..........................................15
II.1. The Father of Value Investing....................................15
II.2. Five Elements of Value Investing.................................17
II.3. Long-term Investment.............................................23
II.4. Intrinsic Value..................................................25
II.5. Margin of Safety.................................................28
II.6. Compound Interest Machine........................................29
CHAPTER III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY......................................30
III.1. Research Design.................................................30
III.2. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) Financial Statement Data Collection..30
III.3. Financial Empirical Analysis Methods............................31
CHAPTER IV. INDUSRTY ANALYSIS..........................................36
IV.1. Industry of investing............................................36
IV.2. 51 years of Berkshire Hathaway...................................38
IV.3. Porter’s Five Forces.............................................44
IV.4. S.W.O.T. Analysis of Berkshire Hathaway..........................44
CHAPTER V. CASE ANALYSIS...............................................46
V.1. Company Background of Berkshire Hathaway..........................46
V.2. Financial Empirical Analysis Methods of BRK.A.....................52
V.2.1. Dividend Growth Model Analysis of BRK.A.........................59
V.2.2. CAPM Approach Analysis of BRK.A.................................61
V.2.3. Free Cash Flow Method Analysis of BRK.A.........................64
V.2.4. Firm Multiples Method Analysis of BRK.A.........................68
CHAPTER VI. CONCLUSIONS................................................71
REFERENCES..............................................................75

REFERENCES:
1. Aczel, Michael (1988), “After The Crash: The Opportunities According To Benjamin Graham”, Templeton College, The Oxford Centre for Management Studies, pp.1~20.
2. Auxier, Alber L. (1994), “Happy Birthday, Benjamin Graham: A Century after his Birthday, his legacy lives on” on Barron's, and “Honoring Benjamin Graham: The Father of Value Investing”, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, pp.1~18.
3. Buffett, Warren E. (2015), “Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report 2015”, Berkshire Hathaway, Omaha, pp.2.
4. Buffett, Warren E. (1990), Forbes.
5. Buffett, Warren E. (1966), Letter to Partners (Buffett Partnership)
6. Easton, Thomas (1999), “8 investing rules that have stood the test of time Forbes”, Investment Guide Theory, pp.174.
7. Fisher, Philip A. (1958), “Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits”.
8. Greenwald, Bruce (2005), “Benjamin Graham”, “The September 2005 Issue”, “Harvard Business Review”
9. Graham, Benjamin and David, Dodd (1934), “Quantitative and Qualitative Factors”, “Chapter 2.: Fundamental Element in the Problem of Analysis”, Part 1.: Survey and Approach, Security Analysis, pp.27~32.
10. Hollowaya, Pedro and Ricardo Rochmana, Marco Laesb (2013), “Factors Influencing Brazilian Value Investing Portfolios”, Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science vol.18, University of Santa Polo, Brazil, pp.18~22.
11. Lowe, Janet (1994), “Rediscovering Benjamin Graham” (A learn& earn feature), “Benjamin Graham on Value Investing：Lessons from the Dean of Wall Street”, Better Investing, Dearborn Financial, pp.31.
12. Lowe, Janet (1999), “The rediscovered Benjamin Graham selected writings of the wall street legend”, ISBN: 978-0-471-24472-1, pp.304.
13. Ashworth-Lord, Keith (2011), “Pieces of Businesses Bought at the Right Price”, “Fact sheet commentaries”, Sanford Deland Asset Management Business Perspective Investors, pp.2 .
14. Irving, Kahn, “A Tribute to Benjamin Graham”, pp.1.
15. Loomis, Carol J. (1973), “A book on investment fundamentals”, Reviewing Stand, and Graham, Benjamin, “Mr. Margin of Safety”, The Intelligent Investor, Harper& Row, pp.318.
16. Henriques-de-Brito, Marcelo (2015), “Warren Buffett’s bet and Berkshire Hathaway’s Investment Skill”, Information Technology and Quantitative Management (Elsevier B.V. CC BY-NC-ND license), “Procedia Computer Science vol.55”, ScienceDirect.com, Brazil, pp.1193~1202., and pp.1877~0509.
17. The Heilbrunn Center for Graham& Dodd Investing (2014), Columbia Business School, “Summary of Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach”.

Website Sources:
Introduction:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett
http://fortune.com/fortune500/berkshire-hathaway-4/
http://fortune.com/global500/berkshire-hathaway-14/
https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-its-like-to-be-owned-by-berkshire-hathaway
https://hbr.org/2005/09/all-strategy-is-local
https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/research/schlossarchives/private
http://www.elsevier.es/jefas
http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/
http://www.sciencedirect.com
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%AF%8C%E8%B1%AA%E6%A6%9C
Berkshire Hathaway common stock percentage portfolio：
http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK
Chapter 2:
http://www.sanford-deland.com/pages/quality+of+business
http://www.sanford-deland.com/pages/valuation
http://www.sanford-deland.com/pages/investment+fund+details
http://www.sanford-deland.com/pages/about+us
Chapter 3:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_discount_model
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_asset_pricing_model
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_cash_flow
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valuation_using_multiples
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EV/EBITDA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_average_cost_of_capital
http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capm.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp?layout=orig
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/from-6000-to-67-billion-warren-buffetts-wealth-through-the-ages-2015-08-17
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/warren-buffetts-net-worth-over-the-years/
Chapter 4:
Introduction of Berkshire Hathaway:
http://fortune.com/2015/02/28/berkshire-after-50-years/
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/subs/sublinks.html
Chapter 5:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
http://www.gurufocus.com/stock/BRK.A
https://www.macroaxis.com
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1757025
http://www.stock-ai.com
http://www.wsj.com/asia
https://ycharts.com/companies/BRK.A/current_ratio
https://ycharts.com/companies/BRK.A/earning_yield
https://ycharts.com/companies/BRK.A/revenues