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研究生:陳明勇
論文名稱:以拔靴追蹤方法探討二氧化碳排放量與經濟成長的Granger因果關係:新興國家的實證
論文名稱(外文):Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth for the Emerging Countries
指導教授:陳宜清陳宜清引用關係彭元興彭元興引用關係
口試委員:劉豐旗曾慶瀛彭元興陳宜清余世宗魏漣邦
口試日期:2015-09-28
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:大葉大學
系所名稱:環境工程學系碩士班
學門:工程學門
學類:環境工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:83
中文關鍵詞:經濟成長二氧化碳排放量拔靴追蹤Granger因果關係檢定新興國家
外文關鍵詞:economic growthcarbon dioxide emissionsbootstrapping track Granger causality testemerging countries
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:142
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中文摘要

本文研究主要目的是以拔靴追蹤方法探討新興國家二氧化碳排放量與經濟成長的Granger因果關係。
過去研究文獻針對低度開發、開發中與已開發國家做探討,鮮少對新興國家做研究,基於考慮各國家之間的相依性與異質性關係,故運用拔靴追蹤Granger因果關係檢定方法並透過Wald檢定的拔靴臨界值,重新驗證二氧化碳排放量與經濟成長兩者之間的Granger因果關係。
本研究對象依相關地理位置分為四大洲22個新興國家非洲,埃及、摩洛哥、南非、尚比亞、奈米亞,亞洲,印度、菲律賓、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、泰國、南韓、中國, 歐洲,匈牙利、波蘭、俄羅斯、土耳其、捷克,美洲,巴西、墨西哥、哥倫比亞、智利、祕魯等國家取自世界銀行之發展指標統計數據1993年到2011年的經濟成長與二氧化碳排放量。
研究實證結果發現呈現CO2排放量單向領先影響GDP的成長率的國家主要經濟來源以工業機械製造和紡織為主。呈現GDP成長率與CO2排放量雙向影響之因果關係的國家經濟主要來源由非工業及多樣化服務業、農業。呈現CO2與GDP並無直接的相互影響之因果關係的國家經濟產業結構改變重工業已經超過輕工業,擁有現代化的工業成為帶動經濟發展的主要力量。

關鍵字:經濟成長、二氧化碳排放量、拔靴追蹤Granger因果關係 檢定、新興國家

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the bootstrap method to track emerging countries Granger causality carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth.
Past research literature for the low level of development, and the development of developed countries do investigate, rarely do research on emerging countries, based on consideration of the heterogeneity of dependency relations between the countries and, therefore the use of bootstrap method to track and Granger causality test accredited by Wald bootstrap critical value, revalidate Granger causality carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth between the two.
The study by relevance geographically into 22 emerging countries on four continents, Africa (Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Zambia, Naimi Ya), Asia (India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, China), Europe (Hungary, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Czech Republic), the Americas (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru and other countries from the development indicators statistical data from the World Bank from 1993 to 2011 economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions.
The empirical results presented study found that CO2 emissions affect the way leading the main source of national GDP growth rate of industrial machinery manufacturing and textile-based. The main source of the country's economic causality presents GDP growth rate and CO2 emissions by two-way influence of non-industrial and diversified services, agriculture. CO2 is not presented with the national economic structure GDP causality direct interaction of changes in heavy industry over light industry, with modern industry has become a major force driving economic development.
Key Words: economic growth; carbon dioxide emissions; bootstrapping track Granger causality test; emerging countries.

目錄

封面內頁
簽名頁
中文摘要 iii
ABSTRACT v
誌謝 vi
目錄 vii
圖目錄 ix
表目錄 xi

第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的與研究問題 2
1.3 研究範圍 2
第二章 文獻回顧
2.1 經濟成長與二氧化碳之相關文獻探討 4
2.1.1經濟成長與二氧化碳排放之相關文獻整理 13
2.2 各國背景說明與比較 16
2.2.1非洲(埃及、摩洛哥、南非、尚比亞與奈米利亞)國內生產毛額(GDP) &人均GDP 16
2.2.2亞洲(印度、菲律賓、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、泰國、南韓與中國)國內生產毛額&人均國內生產毛額 20
2.2.3歐洲(匈牙利、波蘭、俄羅斯、土耳其與捷克)國內生產毛額(GDP) &人均GDP 24
2.2.4美洲(巴西、墨西哥、哥倫比亞、智利與祕魯)國內生產毛額&人均國內生產毛額 28
2.2.5四大洲之經濟成長與二氧化碳排放量 32
第三章 研究方法
3.1 研究架構 38
3.2 研究方法 40
3.2.1 橫斷面相依檢定 41
3.2.2 斜率同質性檢定 42
3.2.3 追蹤因果性檢定 44
3.3 研究工具 46
3.4 研究範圍 49
第四章 結果與討論
4.1 橫斷面相依檢定 50
4.2 斜率同質性檢定 51
4.3 拔靴追蹤因果檢定 53
4.4 經濟成長與二氧化碳排放量之因果關係 73
第五章 結論與建議
5.1 結論 75
5.2 建議 76
參考文獻 77
附錄 1993年到2011年的GDP與CO2 80

參考文獻

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