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研究生:林文敏
研究生(外文):LIN,WEN-MIN
論文名稱:財政規則對歐盟成員國財政赤字之影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Fiscal Rules on the Fiscal Deficit in the EU Member Countries
指導教授:黃瓊如黃瓊如引用關係何艷宏何艷宏引用關係
指導教授(外文):HUANG,CHIUNG-JUHO,YUAN-HONG
口試委員:梁景洋
口試委員(外文):LIANG,CHING-YANG
口試日期:2017-06-22
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:財稅學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2017
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:60
中文關鍵詞:財政規則財政赤字政府效能歐盟成員國追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型
外文關鍵詞:fiscal rulesfiscal deficitsgovernment effectivenessEU member countriesPVAR
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本研究使用1996年至2015年20個已開發歐盟成員國之追蹤資料,採用追蹤向量自我迴歸模型探討歐盟國家之財政規則對財政赤字之影響,並依照政府效能將變數分為兩群組,以分析財政規則之效果是否有所差異。實證對象依聯合國所公布的人類發展指數作依據,選取了20個已開發之歐盟成員國為全部國家組,再將其分出高政府效能組與非高政府效能組,共三組追蹤資料實證變數。
研究結果顯示,全部國家組中,財政規則與政府效能皆對財政赤字呈現負向影響,但無法顯著的讓財政赤字下降,而非高政府效能組之結果表示,財政規則與政府效能對於財政赤字具有正向不顯著之影響,亦即也未達成原本訂立財政規則欲降低財政赤字之預期。然而,根據高政府效能組之結果可以看出,財政規則與政府效能皆對財政赤字有負向且顯著之影響,換言之,當政府效能愈高,財政規則即愈能發揮其效果,達到降低財政赤字之目的。

In this study, we used Panel Vector Autoregression model to analyze the impact of fiscal rules on the fiscal deficit in the EU member countries. We select 20 advanced EU member countries over 1996-2015 period. And all of the variable would be decomposed into two groups, the high government effectiveness group and the other government effectiveness group, which is depending on their relative government effectiveness that we can analyze whether the effect of fiscal rules is different from the two groups.
The empirical results indicate that fiscal rules and government effectiveness have a negative effect on the fiscal deficit but no significant in all member countries group. The fiscal rules and government effectiveness have a positive effect but no significant on the fiscal deficit in the other government effectiveness group. However, fiscal rules and government effectiveness have both negative and significant effect on fiscal deficits. In other words, when fiscal rule combined with a high efficiency of government, the fiscal rules will have negative and significant effect on the fiscal deficit.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 10
第三節 論文架構與流程 14
第二章 文獻探討 15
第一節 財政規則與財政永續性 15
第二節 財政規則對財政政策影響之實證 18
第三章 實證模型 22
第一節 實證變數設定 22
第二節 實證對象 26
第三節 實證方法 30
第四章 實證結果分析 39
第一節 追蹤資料單根檢定結果 39
第二節 追蹤資料向量自我迴歸實證結果 44
第五章 結論與建議 51
第一節 研究結論 51
第二節 研究建議 53
參考文獻 55
一、中文部分 55
二、英文部分 55

一、中文部分
郎偉芳(2011),後金融危機財政赤字暴增與財政穩定政策探討,《經建會綜合規劃研究報告》,467-488。
許雅玲(2014),《財政規則之研究:新制度經濟學的觀點》,臺灣大學社會科學院政治學系碩士論文。
陳怡樺(2010),《所得不均度與經濟成長關係之探討:東協加六及台灣實證分析》,逢甲大學財稅學系碩士論文。
曾秀珍(2010),《歐洲經濟與貨幣政策探討》,中華民國國際關係學會年會會議論文。
黃建興(2004),歐盟財政法則之運用與啟示,《經濟研究》,5,165-185。
盧孟伶(2010),《公共支出與經濟成長相互關係之探討:以亞太十六國為例》,逢甲大學財稅學系碩士論文。
二、英文部分
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Ayuso-i-Casals, J. (2012). “National Expenditure Rules: Why, How and When,” European Commission, Economic Papers 473.
Ballabriga, F. and C. Martinez-Mongay (2003). “Has EMU Shifted Monetary and Fiscal Policies?” Monetary and Fiscal Policies in EMU: Interactions and Coordination, Cambridge University.
Baldi, G. (2015). “Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases,” Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(2): 185-194.
Bernanke, B.S. (2010, August 27). “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Retrieved from
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm
Bergman, M., M. Hutchison, and S. Jensen (2013). “Do Sound Public Finances Require Fiscal Rules Or Is Market Pressure Enough?” European Commission, European Economy, Economic Papers No.489.
Bergman, U. M. and M. M. Hutchison (2015). “Economic Stabilization in the Post-Crisis World: Are Fiscal Rules the Answer?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 52: 82-101.
Bergman, U. M., M. M. Hutchison, and S. Jensen (2016). “Measurement and Effectiveness of National Fiscal Rules and Governance in the European Union,” Macroeconomic Policy in Crisis, 9:115-130.
Budina, N., T. Kinda, A. Schaechter and A. Weber (2012). “Fiscal Rules at a Glance: Country Details from a New Dataset,” IMF Working Paper WP12/273.
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Claeys, P. (2008). “Rules, and Their Effects on Fiscal Policy in Sweden,” Swedish Economic Policy Review, 15: 7-47.
Calderón, C., R. Duncan, and K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2012). “Do Good Institutions Promote Counter-Cyclical Macroeconomic Policies?” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper No.118.
Dahan, M. and M. Strawczynski (2010). “Fiscal Rules and Composition Bias in OECD Countries,” CESifo Working Paper Series 3088.
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Debrun, X., L. Moulin, A. Turrini, J. Ayuso-i-Casals, and M. S. Kumar,(2008). “Tied to the Mast? National Fiscal Rules in the European Union,” Economic Policy, 23: 297-362.
Frankel, J., C. Vegh, and G. Vuletin (2013). “On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” Journal of Development Economics, 100: 32-47.
Foremny, D. (2014). “Sub-national Deficits in European Countries: The Impact of Fiscal Rules and Tax Autonomy,” Journal of European Political Economy, 34: 86-110.
Hallerberg, M., R. Strauch, and J. von Hagen (2007). “The Design of Fiscal Rules and Forms of Governance in European Union Countries,” European Journal of Political Economy, 23: 338-359.
Hughes-Hallett, A. and S. H. Jensen (2012). “Fiscal Governance in the Euro Area: Institutions vs.Rules,” Journal of European Public Policy, 19: 646-664.
Holm-Hadulla, F., S. Hauptmeier, and P. Rother (2010). “The Impact of Numerical Expenditure Rules on Budgetary Discipline over the Cycle,” Working Paper Series 1169, European Central Bank.
International Monetary Fund (2009). “Fiscal Rules-Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances,” IMF Policy Paper.
International Monetary Fund (2013). “The Functions and Impact of Fiscal Councils,” IMF Policy Paper.
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Kumar, Manmohan S. and Teresa Ter-Minassian (2007). “Promoting Fiscal Discipline,” International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
Larch, M., P. van den Noord, and L. Jonung (2010). “The Stability and Growth Pact. Lessons from the Great Recession,” European Economy, Economic Papers. 429, Brussels.
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Mathieu, C. and Sterdyniak, H. (2013). “Do We Need Fiscal Rules?” Revue de l'OFCE, 127(1): 189-214.
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Schaechter, A., T. Kinda, N. Budina, and A. Weber, (2012). “Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis – Toward the Next-Generation Rules. A New Dataset,” IMF Working Paper 12/187.
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Von Hagen, J. and Wolff, G. (2006). “What Do Deficits Tell Us about Debt? Empirical Evidence on Creative Accounting with Fiscal Rules in the EU,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(12): 3259-3279.

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