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研究生:王宣文
論文名稱:伊朗最高宗教領袖與核能政策演變關係之探討:2009年到2015年
論文名稱(外文):The linkage of Iranian supreme leader and the evolution of nuclear policy: 2009-2015
指導教授:劉長政
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:外交學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:國際事務學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:125
中文關鍵詞:伊朗最高宗教領Khamenei核能政策伊朗政治派系綠色運動JCPOA
外文關鍵詞:Iran Supreme Leader KhameneiThe nuclear policyIranian political factionsThe Green MovementJCPOA
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自2002年秘密運作的核能設施曝光後,伊朗的核能政策一直是國際爭點且令人費解。若要討論伊朗核能政策是如何產出及其未來的走勢,本文認為伊朗本身的動機才是決定核能政策的關鍵。
本文以「個人-國內政治-國際政治」三層次作為分析架構,首先討論核能政策的發展歷程及其對伊朗的意義;其次分析伊朗最高宗教領袖Khamenei及伊朗政治派系如何影響核能政策;最後聚焦於2009年綠色運動後至2015年JCPOA簽訂這段期間,伊朗最高宗教領袖Khamenei與核能政策演變的關係。
本文發現伊朗的政治菁英對核能政策有高度共識,認為發展核能政策代表著實踐伊朗的大國意識與民族尊嚴、經濟與能源多元化的自主發展以及安全上的保障。另外,從政治派系角度出發,核能政策也被視為派系鬥爭中的槓桿,是政治菁英獲得權力的工具。同時,基於伊朗特殊的政治體制--教法學家體系,最高宗教領袖Khamenei為伊朗權力體系中的第一人,其態度與政治取向決定了核能政策的走向。而在最高宗教領袖Khamenei決定核能政策的走向時,其必須將國內外政經局勢納入考量,並時時權衡當前的局勢是否會影響其作為最高宗教領袖的合法性。本文認為,若能繼續對最高宗教領袖Khamenei加以觀察,並分析其與國內政治派系的互動,將有助於未來對伊朗核能政策的了解並對伊朗政治帶來更全面的研究。
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題 3
第三節 文獻回顧 3
第四節 研究設計 16
第五節 章節安排 17

第二章 伊朗的核能政策:發展歷程與意義 19
第一節 巴勒維王朝時期的核能政策發展 19
第二節 革命前期的核能政策發展 24
第三節 核能政策引起國際爭議 27
第四節 核能政策對伊朗的意義 37
第五節 小結 40

第三章 伊朗最高宗教領袖、政治派系與核能政策 41
第一節 最高宗教領袖在伊朗權力結構中的地位 41
第二節 最高宗教領袖與伊朗政治派系鬥爭:權力是否受限? 48
第三節 伊朗最高宗教領袖在核能決策中的權力行使 59

第四章 2009年到2015年內外局勢下伊朗最高宗教領袖對核能政策之考量 67
第一節 2009年總統大選與綠色運動 67
第二節 2009年到2013年的伊朗政經局勢與核能政策 76
第三節 2013年總統大選到JCPOA 85
第四節 小結 98

第五章 結論 101
第一節 研究發現 101
第二節 研究貢獻與展望 104
參考文獻 109

圖目錄
圖 一-1 伊朗中央權力結構圖 11
圖 一-2 章節安排 18
圖 二-1 伊朗核能政策所代表的三個意義 37
圖 二-2 1965年至2015年伊朗石油產量、國內需求量及淨出口量 38
圖 三-1 伊朗核能政策決策單位 60

表目錄
表 三-1 伊朗三大政治派系 49
表 四-1 2010至2013年伊朗經濟指標 81
表 四-2 2009年至2013年伊朗核能政策發展進程 82
表 四-3 2013年至2015年JCPOA談判路徑 89
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期刊論文
丁工,(2010)。「從伊朗核問題看伊朗的地區大國意識」,阿拉伯世界研究,第4期,頁44-52。
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王海濱,(2010)。「能源安全視野中的伊朗核問題」,西亞非洲,第2期,頁61-64。
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宋學文,(民國97年)。「層次分析對國際關係研究的重要性及模型建構」,問題與研究,第47卷第4期,頁167-199。
李紹先,(2015)。「伊核全面協議的影響評估」,西亞非洲,第5期,頁4-18。
李意,(2008)。「核危機中伊朗外交政策解析」,西亞非洲,第11期,頁53-58。
汪波,(2009)。「海灣地區“什葉派新月帶”興起的宗教政治影響」,阿拉伯世界研究,第1期,頁68-73。
岳漢景,(2006)。「伊朗核問題的本質探析」,西亞非洲,第6期,頁18-23。
金良祥,(2015)。「伊朗的領袖治國模式爭議」,西亞非洲,第4期,頁41-56。
姜英梅,(2005)。「伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的政教關係」,西亞非洲,第5期,頁51-56。
高新濤,(2008)。「伊朗核問題決策的基本路徑與關鍵角色」,西亞非洲,第11期,頁42-47。
高新濤,(2010)。「伊朗對核不擴散機制的認知及其根源」,阿拉伯世界研究,第5期,頁27-34。
孫德剛、張玉友,(2016)。「中國參與伊朗核問題治理的理論與實踐」,阿拉伯世界研究,第4期,頁3-19。
陸瑾,(2013)。「魯哈尼政府外交政策與地區穩定」,西亞非洲,第6期,頁64-78。
陸瑾,(2015)。「試析魯哈尼“重振經濟”的路徑和制約—兼議哈梅內伊的“抵抗型經濟政策」,西亞非洲,第6期,頁127-143。
華黎明,(2010)。「伊朗核問題及其對大國關係的影響」,和平與發展,第2期,頁35-39。
覃輝銀,(2010)。「伊朗在核問題上與美國的抗爭解析」,西亞非洲,02期,頁48-52。
趙建明,(2009)。「伊朗和平利用核能策略解析」,西亞非洲,第11期,48-55頁。
趙建明,(2012)。「制裁、反制裁的博奕與伊朗的核發展態勢」,外交評論,第2期,79-94頁。
趙建明,(2013)。「魯哈尼當選對伊朗核問題的影響」,西亞非洲,第6.期,79-97頁。
劉慧,(2011)。「民族身分認同對伊朗核政策的影響」,阿拉伯世界研究,第4期,頁33-39。
蔣真,(2007)。「伊朗核強硬政策評析」,西亞非洲,第1期,頁5-10。
蔣真,(2010)。「伊朗核強硬政策的邏輯分析」,西亞非洲,第10期,頁5-11。
蔣真,(2012)。「當代伊朗政治現代化的困惑」,西亞非洲,第2期,112-127頁。
博碩士學位論文
陳慕璇(2014)。國際核不擴散與伊朗核問題分析:聯合國、國際原子能總署與P5+1。國立政治大學,外交學系,台北。
英文部分
書籍部分
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Alam, Anwar eds., (2009). Iran and post- 9/11 world order: reflections on Iranian nuclear programme, New Delhi: New Century Publications.
Arjomand, Said Amir, (2009). After Khomeini: Iran under his successors, New York: Oxford University Press.
Crane, Keith, Lal, Rollie, and Martini, Jeffrey, (2008). Iran’s political, demographic, and economic vulnerabilities, CA: RAND Corporation.
Dabashi, Hamid, (2011). The green movement in Iran, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
Ehteshami, Anoushiravan and Molavi, Reza eds., (2012). Iran and the international system, New York: Routledge.
Ehteshami, Anoushiravan and Zweiri, Mahjoob eds., (2008). Iran’s foreign policy from Khatami to Ahmadinejad, London: Ithaca Press.
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期刊
Abdolmohammadi, Pejman & Cama, Giampiero, (2015). Iran as a Peculiar Hybrid Regime: Structure and Dynamics of the Islamic Republic, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.42 No.4, 558-578.
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IAEA文獻
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2003/40),6 June 2003。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協(GOV/2003/75),14 November 2003。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2004/21),13 March 2004。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2004/60),3 September 2004。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2004/83),16 November 2004。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2004/90),29 November 2004。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2005/67),2 September 2005。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協(GOV/2005/77),24 September 2005。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2006/14),4 February 2006。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2006/15),27 February 2006。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2006/38),8 June 2006。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2006/64),14 November 2006。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2007/58),15 November 2007。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2011/54),2 September 2011。
IAEA,在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國執行與《不擴散核武器條約》有關的保障協定(GOV/2011/65),8 November 2011。
IAEA,法國、德國、伊朗伊斯蘭共和國和英國常駐代表 2004 年 11 月 26 日關於2004 年 11 月 15 日在巴黎簽署的協定的信函,1 December 2004。

聯合國文獻
聯合國安全理事會,第1696(2006)號決議,31 July 2006。
聯合國安全理事會,第1737號(2006)號決議,27 December 2006。
聯合國安全理事會,第1747號(2007)號決議,24 March 2007。
聯合國安全理事會,第1803號(2008)號決議,3 March 2008。
聯合國安全理事會,第1835號(2008)號決議,27 September 2008。
聯合國安全理事會,第1929號(2010)號決議,9 June 2010。
聯合國安全理事會,第2231號(2015)號決議,20 July 2015。
聯合國安全理事會,聯合全面行動計畫,16 June 2015。

網際網路
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「美中情局長警告川普 勿毀伊朗核協議」,中央通訊社,<http://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/201611300482-1.asp> (11月30日2016年)
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“40 million votes cast for Islamic System,” The Office of the Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei,< http://www.leader.ir/en/content/5594/40-million-votes-cast-for-Islamic-System>(June 16, 2009)
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