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研究生:梁穎誼
研究生(外文):Leong, Yin Yee
論文名稱:人口流動模型的距離效應之探討
論文名稱(外文):A distance-based modification of spatial interaction model in modelling population movement
指導教授:余清祥余清祥引用關係
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:統計學系
學門:數學及統計學門
學類:統計學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:105
語文別:英文
論文頁數:100
中文關鍵詞:空間互動模型人口流動轉折點模型中間障礙因素距離遞減函數
外文關鍵詞:Spatial interaction modelPopulation movementChange-point analysisIntervening obstaclesDistance decay function
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  • 被引用被引用:1
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人口流動具有各種型態。其中包含了遷移、移動、以及通勤人口。在宏觀模型框架下,空間互動模型(簡稱SIM)對於測量人口流動扮演了重要的角色。距離遞減效應為空間互動模型中重要的因子。該效應描述了人口流動的頻率會隨著移動距離而逐漸下降。然而,從實證上,本研究發現人口流動與移動距離的函數,並非在距離上保有恆定的關係。
在本文中,我們提出了對此非恆定的距離遞減效應之修正方法。本修正法運用了轉折點模型的特點,套入了空間互動模型的距離函數上。本文首先運用了電腦模擬驗證了此方法的穩定性與有效性。接下來,研究將此方法應用在兩個人口流動資料。第一個是從台灣健保資料庫觀察出的民眾就醫地變化。健保資料庫包含了總人口的5%抽樣資料。由於在抽樣上瑕疵不大,因此健保抽樣資料具有了一定的代表性。第二個資料則是英國統計局所提供的人口遷移普查資料。在這兩個資料上,我們發現本研究所提修正法,相較於傳統的空間互動模型具有更好的模型配適表現。此改善程度在非都市地區尤其更為明顯。
Population movement encompasses various forms, such as migration, mobility, and commuting. Spatial Interaction Model (SIM) serves as an important tool to calibrate these movements in the sense of macro modelling. One of the important features of this model is that the number of migrants often decays with the distance. However, we found that this is not always the case in practice and the decay pattern may change with distance.

In this study, we propose a distanced-based modification to the SIM, via applying the techniques of change-point problem to construct distance functional form. Computer simulation is illustrated to validate the method and the empirical analysis of flow data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), and also England & Wales internal migration data also provides sound evidences to support the proposed approach. Note that the flow data from the NHIRD consists of a sample of about one million people and can be treated as a fine sample representative of Taiwan’s whole population (about 23 million people). Our results show that the modified approach is more adequate than the traditional SIM, especially for describing the movements of suburban areas in Taiwan.
1. Introduction 7
2. Population movement and literature reviews 10
2.1 Briefing on population movement 10
2.2 Migration data 14
2.3 Review on migration theories 16
2.3.1 Newtonian gravity model and Push-Pull theory 18
2.3.2 Neo-Classical approach 20
2.3.3 New economics of migration 21
2.3.4 Dual labor market theory 22
2.3.5 World systems theory 25
2.4 Definition of SIM in this study and recent development
26
2.5 Other flow models 32
3. Changing point in distance decay function 36
4. Change-point modelling approach to distance-decay effect 45
5. Simulation studies 54
5.1 Type I Error and Power 54
5.2 Accuracy and Precision 58
6. Empirical studies 65
6.1 Change of locations of hospital visit based on Taiwan NHRID 66
6.1.1 NHIRD data and data extraction 66
6.1.2 Model validation 73
6.2 England & Wales migration data 79
7. Conclusion and discussions 83
Reference 87
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