隨著高齡化的到來，慢性疾病與居家照護的需求日益增加，遠距健康照護儼然成為未來必然的趨勢。遠距健康照護產業由遠距健康服務接受者、醫護人員、系統廠商與裝置廠商彼此緊密合作提供遠距照護服務，然而在服務創新擴散過程中涉及許多複雜的動態關係，並涵蓋人口結構，社會文化，政府政策，健康保險等問題。目前的研究較少用系統動態學的觀點來探討台灣遠距健康照護產業的發展。因此，本研究透過系統動態學的方法來探討台灣遠距健康照護產業的發展。首先透過文獻蒐集以及專家訪談整理影響台灣遠距健康照護產業發展的驅動因子；根據這些驅動因子建立台灣整個遠距健康照護產業的系統結構，並根據台灣的現況做出情境分析，預測未來可能有哪些發生的情況。研究結果發現：使用者接受程度和政策合適度是影響台灣遠距健康照護產業生態系統發展的關鍵不確定因素；而系統廠商則在遠距健康照護產業扮演著重要的角色，影響整個產業的發展。另外我們也透過創新擴散理論在情境分析所預測之不同遠距健康照護產業情境中提出不同的策略建議。 本研究結果有助於台灣政府以及遠距健康照護廠商提出適當的策略來促進產業發展與創新擴散。

Due to the coming aging society and increased population of patients with chronic diseases, telehealth has become the inevitable trend of the future. The telehealth industry ecosystem, involving several different actors and complex dynamic relationships among them, has complicate issues including population structure, social culture, government policy, health insurance, and so on. This research develops a system dynamics approach to understand the system structure of the telehealth industry and to investigate adequate strategies for improving the innovation diffusion of telehealth services. This proposed methodology applies document analysis and industrial interviews to determine the important driving factors and system structure that affect the diffusion of telehealth industry. In addition, scenario analysis is used to identify alternative future developments and analyze their potential implications. Research findings identify two critical uncertainties including customer acceptance and policy adequacy in the development of telehealth industry and several strategic recommendations based on the theory of innovation diffusion are provided for different scenarios. The research findings may help Taiwan''s government and telehealth firms to develop appropriate strategies for improving telehealth innovation diffusion.

Content
摘要 i
Abstract ii
Content iii
List of Tables v
List of Figures vi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Research objectives 3
Chapter 2 Literature Review 5
2.1 The telehealth care industry 5
2.2 System dynamics 9
Chapter 3 Methodology 11
3.1 Research process 11
3.2 Focal issues, Document analysis and interviews 12
3.3 System dynamics model 15
3.4 Scenario analysis and strategy recommendation 16
Chapter 4 System thinking of Taiwan’s telehealth industry 18
4.1 Value network framework of the telehealth industry 18
4.2 Feedback structure of hospital adoption 22
4.3 Feedback structure of clinical staff adoption 24
4.4 Feedback structure of telehealth services receiver’s adoption intention 26
4.5 Feedback structure of device vendor’s adoption intention 31
4.6 Feedback structure of system vendor’s adoption intention 32
4.7 Overall system structure of telehealth industry ecosystem 36
Chapter 5 Scenario Analysis and Strategic Recommendation 38
5.1 Identifying the critical uncertainties 38
5.2 Scenario analysis framework 40
5.3 Scenarios description 42
5.4 Strategic recommendation in different scenarios 43
Chapter 6 Conclusion 48
6.1 Conclusion 48
6.2 Research Limitation and Future work 49
References 51

List of Tables
Table 1. Industrial experts in telehealth industry ecosystem…………………………...14
Table 2. Actors in the telehealth industry ecosystem…………….…………….……….19
Table 3. Key factors in telehealth industry ecosystem……….……….……….……….39

List of Figures
Figure 1. Research framework…………………………………………………………12
Figure 2. Simple casual loop diagram…………….…………….……………………...16
Figure 3. Value network in Telehealth industry ecosystem…………….………………21
Figure 4.Feedback structure of hospital adoption intention……….….………………..24
Figure 5. Feedback structure of clinical staff adoption intention…………….………...26
Figure 6. Feedback structure of telehealth service receiver’s adoption intention………………………………………………………………………..……….30
Figure 7.Feedback structure of device vendor’s adoption intention………………...…32
Figure 8. Feedback structure of system vendor adoption intention…………………….35
Figure 9. Overall system structure of telehealth industry ecosystem……………..……37
Figure 10. The scenario framework in Taiwan’s telehealth industry ecosystem……….41

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