臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究利用2004-2010年中國30個省份的縱橫資料，基於懸浮微粒2.5(PM_2.5.)的多門檻效果，闡明了化石燃料消費對健康的影響。我們首先估計煤消費量與PM_2.5 的因果關係。 結果表明，1%的煤炭消費量增加會導致人口加權的懸浮微粒2.5暴露增加0.23%。接著我們探討PM_2.5.與各種原因下的死亡率之間的統計學關係，發現PM_2.5對健康的影響有三個門檻值。
例如，我們發現當人口加權的懸浮微粒2.5暴露增加1%時，人們因心臟病而死的死亡率增加程度不同。在PM_2.5暴露低於26.2μg/m^3, 介於26.2μg/m^3〜34.27μg/m^3,介於34.27μg/m^3〜44.76μg/m^3, 以及44.76μg/m^3 以上時，死亡率分別增加0.25%, 0.42%, 0.53% 及 0.40%。
在呼吸系統疾病方面，當人口加權的懸浮微粒2.5暴露增加1％時，人們因呼吸系統疾病而死的死亡率增加程度也不同。在PM_2.5暴露低於37.95μg/m^3, 介於37.95μg/m^3〜38.06μg/m^3,介於38.06μg/m^3〜48.53μg/m^3, 以及48.53μg/m^3 以上時，死亡率分別增加0.38%, 0.97%, 0.57% 及 0.39%。
結合以上兩個步驟，我們發現，若是PM_2.5暴露高於34.27μg/m^3 (or 37.95 μg/m^3)，當煤炭消費量增加1％時，心臟病（或呼吸系統疾病）的死亡率將增加0.12%（或0.19%）。
我們還發現其他空氣污染物與公共衛生之間的重要關係，例如NO_2增加1%，心臟病死亡率和呼吸系統疾病死亡率分別會增加0.31%及0.33%; 而NO_2增加1%，心髒病死亡率和呼吸系統疾病死亡率分別會增加0.10%及0.42%。研究結果讓我們對於空氣污染造成相疾病關死亡情形更加瞭解，並可以在制定排放標準時進一步參考。另外我們發現，由於中國為了她在2008年舉辦的奧運提供更好的空氣品質，其2008年以後的PM_2.5比2008年以前低了14.5%。此外，氣象條件中，溫度和濕度與PM_2.5.呈正相關，而降水與PM_2.5呈負相關。

This study elucidates the health impacts from fossil fuel consumption based on multiple threshold effect of PM_2.5 in China, using panel data of 30 provinces in the period time 2004-2010. We conduct this by first estimating the causal relationship of coal consumption and PM_2.5. The result shows that a 1% coal consumption increase induces a 0.23% increase in population-weighted exposure to PM_2.5. We continue with developing a statistical relationship between PM_2.5 and cause-specific mortality which indicates that the health effects are dependent on the PM_2.5 range with triple threshold effect. For example, we find that increasing PM_2.5 causes mortality to increase when population-weighted PM_2.5 exposure is lower than 26.2 μg/m^3, between 26.2 and 34.27 μg/m^3, between 34.27 and 44.76 μg/m^3 and higher 44.76 μg/m^3, with the estimated increase in heart disease mortality being 0.25%, 0.42%, 0.53% and 0.40% when the population-weighted PM_2.5 exposure increases by 1%. In terms of respiratory diseases, the mortality increases by 0.38%, 0.97%, 0.57% and 0.39%, corresponded to 1% increase in population-weighted PM_2.5 exposure when PM_2.5 exposure is lower than 37.95 μg/m^3, between 37.95 and 38.06 μg/m^3, between 38.06 and 48.53 μg/m^3 or higher 48.53 μg/m^3, respectively. By combining these two steps, we find that the mortality in term of heart disease (or respiratory disease) will increase by 0.12% (or 0.19%) when the coal consumption increases by 1%, under the ranges of PM_2.5 exposure which is higher than 34.27 μg/m^3 (or 37.95 μg/m^3). Moreover, we also found significant relation between other air pollutants and public health, such as a 1% increase in NO_2 lead to 0.31% and 0.33% increase in heart disease mortality and respiratory, respectively; and a 1% SO_2 increase causes mortality of heart disease and respiratory disease increase by 0.10% and 0.42%, respectively. The findings of the study provide a better understanding of sources contributing to related-air pollution mortality and could be considered for further applications in setting emission standards.
In addition, we found that PM_2.5 in the period time 2009-2010 is lower than previous period about 14.5% owing to China’s efforts to provide better air quality for 2008 Olympic Games. This study also found that meteorological conditions including temperature and humidity are positively correlated with PM_2.5 while precipitation and PM_2.5 has a negative correlation.

Table of Contents
Acknowledgements i
中文摘要 ii
Abstract iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vi
Chapter I. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Motivation and Purposes 1
1.2. Research Process 2
Chapter II. RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEWS 4
2.1. Background of Air Pollution 4
2.2. Background of Coal Consumption in China 6
2.3. Background of Mortality of Heart Disease and Respiratory 7
2.4. Literature Reviews 8
Chapter III. ECONOMETRIC MODELS 13
3.1. Estimating the Environmental Impacts of Fuel Consumption in Air pollution 13
3.1.1. Data Description 13
3.1.2. Panel Multiple Regression Model 14
3.2. Estimating Multiple Threshold Effects for PM2.5 and Mortality 15
3.2.1. Theoretical Model 15
3.2.2. Data Description 19
3.2.3. Empirical Models 20
Chapter IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS 21
4.1. Estimated Effects of Coal Consumption on Air Pollution 21
4.2. Testing for Multiple Thresholds 23
4.3. Estimated Effects of Population-Weighted Exposure to PM2.5 on Cause-Specific Mortality 23
4.4. Two-stage Approach Results 27
4.5. Discussion 28
Chapter V. CONCLUSION 30
5.1. Contribution of the Study 30
5.2. Limitations of the Study 32
5.3. Recommendations for Further Research 32
Appendix 34
References 34

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