臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

哪些因素的存在能夠讓一國貨幣成為普遍用於交易、計價與儲備之國際通貨(international currency)？昔日曾讓英鎊與今天讓美元成為國際通貨的種種原因，是否能夠在被它國仿效與達成後，讓該國發行之貨幣也同樣躍升為國際通貨？
藉由對英鎊、美元的觀察，本論文釐清美元與英鎊成為國際通貨之原因，發現此兩國在特定時空背景下所擁有之經濟、軍事等條件優於當時的其他國家。此外，兩國所採取的政策，例如浮動匯率、貨幣全面開放自由兌換、擴大海外貿易範圍，以及對外提供援助與投資等，均有助於其本國貨幣的國際化。
有趣的是，上述條件只是構成一國貨幣成為國際通貨之必要條件，卻並非充分條件。目前經濟崛起的中國縱使在這些必要條件上有越來越接近昔日英鎊或今日美元的趨勢，其所發行之人民幣要成為所謂的國際通貨仍不可期待。原因在於，國際通貨只能有一個，在決定國家實力與國際地位的關鍵性戰爭沒有爆發以前，既存國際通貨發行國的地位並不會受到其它國家的質疑，因此國際社會不會調整既有的國際通貨認知。毋寧，除非在可預見的將來爆發一場關鍵性的大規模戰爭，並且美國是戰敗國（或雖勝但損失慘重），人民幣才有可能成為國際通貨。

What condition(s) can make one country’s currency be an international currency that can be used as a medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value? The various reasons in the past that made the pound and the dollar to become the international currency, whether them can be imitated and achieved by other countries nowadays, so that their currencies could also become the so-called leading internatinal currency?
By inspecting the pound and the dollar, this paper clarifies the reasons why the dollar and the pound become international currency in the past, and finds that the economic and military conditions possessed by these two countries in both spatial and temporal qualities are superior to those that other countries had in the same period. In addiction, the similar policies adopted by these two countries, such as floating exchange rates, finacial deregulation, liberalization of free trade, and overseas aid as well as investment etc., contributed the dollar and the pound to be international.
Interestingly, the conditions mentioned above are only necessary to internationalize a currency, but not sufficient. For the time being, China’s emergence as a world economic power, many of its currency strategies are available to satisfy the Renminbi as same as what the UK and the US did. However, the internationalization of the RMB even in such case is still hard to imagine. The reason of that is because the so-called international currency exists as the world’s one and only can be single one. In this sense, power shifts with a war often plays a significant role, the status that the existing international currency issuer has will not be questioned untill the successful challenge raised by a revisionist. If that would not be the case, international society will not adjust their perspective of international currency. In short, the only case in which the RMB can become an international currency is that a critical total war comes off and the United States, the esisting international currency issuer, is defeated (or has a sort of Pyrrhic victory ).

目次
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題暨文獻回顧 4
第三節 研究設計：假設、途徑與方法 12
第四節 研究範圍與限制 14
第五節 研究架構與章節安排 16
第二章 美元國際化的背景與政策因素 19
第一節 美元國際化的背景因素 19
第二節 美國使美元國際化的政策 30
第三節 小結 34
第三章 英鎊—二戰以前的國際通貨 35
第一節 英鎊國際化的背景因素 35
第二節 英國使英鎊國際化的政策 37
第三節 英鎊的沒落 39
第四節 小結 45
第四章 美元貨幣權力的來源與影響 47
第一節 貨幣權力及其來源 47
第二節 美元貨幣權力之運用與影響 50
第三節 小結 55

第五章 人民幣—未來的國際通貨？ 57
第一節 人民幣國際化的背景因素 57
第二節 中國推動人民幣國際化的國家條件 59
第三節 中國使人民幣國際化的政策 64
第四節 人民幣國際化的進展與限制 77
第五節 小結 87
第六章 結論 89
第一節 回顧 89
第二節 研究發現 90
第三節 研究貢獻 91
第四節 前瞻 93
參考書目 95

壹、中文部分

一、專書

包宗和主編，蔡政文等著(2013)，《國際關係理論》。台北：五南圖書股份有限公司。
中華經濟研究院編撰(2011)，《2010年國際經濟情勢》。台北：行政院經濟建設委員會經濟研究處。
中國人民銀行(2014)，《2013年第4季中國貨幣政策執行報告》。中國北京：中國人民銀行。
行政院經濟建設委員會(2011)，《綜合規劃研究》。台北：行政院經濟建設委員會。 
沈中華與王儷容(2012)，《人民幣國際化，清算機制與台灣》。台北：台灣金融研訓院。
宋鴻兵(2015)，《貨幣戰爭5：後QE時代的全球金融》台北：遠流出版事業股份有限公司。
魯世巍(2006)，《美元霸權與國際貨幣格局》。中國北京：中國經濟出版社。
霍德明、莊西豐(2004)，《貨幣銀行學》。新北市：普林斯頓國際有限公司。
Daren Acemoglu, James Robinson著，吳國卿、鄧伯宸譯(2013)，《國家為什麼會失敗：權力、富裕與貧困的根源》。新北市：衛城出版。
Jeffry Frieden著，孫丹、劉東旭、王穎樑譯(2016)，《貨幣政治：匯率政策的政治經濟學》。中國北京：機械工業出版社。
Richard N. Gardner著，王琛等譯，(2014)，《英鎊美元外交：當代國際經濟秩序的起源與展望》。中國南京：鳳凰出版傳媒股份有限公司。
Robert O. Keohane著，蘇長和等譯(2001)《霸權之後：世界政治經濟中的合作與紛爭》。中國上海：上海人民出版社。
David Marsh, Garry Stoker等著，陳義彥等譯(2007)，《政治學方法論與途徑》。新北市：韋伯文化國際出版有限公司。
Robert A Mundell著，曹添旺等譯注(2007)，《國際經濟學》。台北：聯經出版事業股份有限公司。
Joseph S. Nye Jr.著，王吉美譯(2015)《論權力》。中國北京：中信出版社。
Keith Punch著，林世華譯(2005)《社會科學研究法：量化與質化取向》。台北：心理出版社股份有限公司。
Eswar S. Prasad著，羅耀宗譯(2015)，《美元，不得已的避險天堂》。台北：天下雜誌股份有限公司。
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff著，劉道捷等譯(2015)，《800年金融危機史》。新北市：大牌出版：遠足文化發行。
Stein Ringen著，薛青詩譯(2017)，《完美的獨裁》。新北市：左岸文化出版：遠足文化發行。
Michael G. Roskin著，鄭又平等譯(2010)，《各國政府與政府：比較的觀點》。新北市：韋伯文化國際出版有限公司。
Dominick Salvatore著，賀瑛譯(2007)《歐元、美元和國際貨幣體系》。中國上海：復旦大學出版社。
Joan Edelman Spero著，楊鈞池譯(2001)《國際政治經濟學》。臺北市：五南圖書出版公司。
Herman Schwartz著，徐佳譯(2008)，《國家與市場》。中國南京：江蘇人民出版社。
Robert Triffin著，楊承厚譯(1969)，《黃金與美元危機》。臺北市：台灣銀行經濟研究室。

二、期刊論文

王儷容、杜巧霞(2017)，〈匯率操縱國？川普的指控能成真嗎？〉，《經濟前瞻》，雙月刊第170期，頁27-33。
吳心琪、官德星(2011)，〈國際貨幣制度與政府主權債務〉，《法制論叢》，第47期，頁43-88。
黃志典(2014)，〈人民幣國際化的現況：路徑與策略分析〉，《問題與研究》，第3期，頁1-36。
趙文志(2011)，〈國際貨幣權力理論的應用：中國匯率政策改變的原因分析〉，《問題與研究》，第2期，頁143-167。
譚偉恩(2016)，〈論人民幣國際化:安全至上還是悲劇一場?〉，《全球政治評論》，第56期，頁95-128。
譚偉恩(2017)，〈論強權內政變遷對國際關係的潛在影響〉，《全球政治評論》，第57期，頁19-24。
盧世勳、羅雅萱(2006)，〈中國大陸匯率機制改革及其影響〉，《國際金融參考資料》，第五十一輯，頁1-6。

三、官方資料

中華人民共和國國家統計局(2016)，《中國統計年鑑》。

四、網路資料

丁學良，〈中國維穩體制是一個「次壞」選擇〉，《紐約時報中文網》（2017/5/7瀏覽），https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20121204/cc04dingxueliang/zh-hant/
王韜，〈李靜君：中國政府「花錢買穩定」的邏輯〉，《紐約時報中文網》（2017/5/7瀏覽），https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20141024/cc24lee/zh-hant/
中國金融信息網，〈人民幣國際化月報(2016年12月)〉，《新華社》（2017/5/13瀏覽），http://upload.xh08.cn/2017/0110/1484037784129.pdf
〈英媒：人民幣國際化—大潮回落〉，《BBC中文網》（2017/5/16瀏覽），http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/press-review-38287689
〈臺灣人民幣離岸市場之現況及未來發展〉，《中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網》（2017/5/14瀏覽），http://www.cbc.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=43202&ctNode=302&mp=1

貳、英文部分

一、專書

Huntington, Sameul(1968), Political order in changing societies. the United Kingdom: Yale University Press.
Narsey, Waden(2016), British Imperialism and the Making of Colonial Currency Systems. he United Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan.
Toynbee, Arnold (1934), A Study of History, Vol. III: The Growths of Civilizations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kirshner, Jonathan(1995), Currency and Coercion : the political economy of international monetary power. the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.

二、專書論文

Andrews, David M.(2006), “Chapter One: Monetary Power and Monetary Statecraft,” International Monetary Power. New York: Cornell University Press.
Preeg, Ernest H.(2003), “Exchange Rate Manipulation to Gain an Unfair Competitive Advantage: The Case Against Japan and China,” Dollar Overvaluation and the World Economy. Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Ragin, Charles(1994), “A qualitative comparative analysis of pension systems, ”in Thomas Janoski ed., The Comparative Political
Economy of the Welfare State. London: Cambridge University Press.
Williamson, John(1990), Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened.Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

三、期刊論文

Alexandre, Fernando, Mendes, Carmen, “Growth, competition and political stability in China.” NIPE Working Paper Series 28 (2011), pp.1-16.
Benassy-Quere, Agnes (2015), “The Euro as an International Currency,” G-MonD Working Paper, No.41, pp.1-20.
Bordo, Michael D., MacDonald, Ronald, and Oliver, Michael J.(2009), “Sterling in Crisis: 1964–1967, “ NBER Working Paper, No.14657, pp.1-23.

Brooks, Stephen G., Wohlforth, William C.(2016), “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China's Rise and the Fate of America's Global Position, “ International Security, Vol.40, No.3, pp. 7-53.
Cohen, Benjamin(2013), “Currency and State Power,” Back to Basic-State Power in a Contemporary World, Ch.8, pp.159-176.
Cohen, Benjamin(2012), “ The Benefits and Costs of an International Currency: Getting the Calculus Right,” Open Economies Review, Vol.23, No.1, pp.1-22.
Chitu, Livia, Eichengreen, Barry, Mehl, Arnaud (2014), “When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling as the Leading International Currency? Evidence from the Bond Markets,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol.111, pp.1-43.
Chinn, Menzie, Frankel, Jeffery(2008), “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency, ”National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w13909, pp.1-22.
Eichengreen, Barry, Flandreau, Marc(2008), “The Rise and Fall of the Dollar,
or When did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading Reserve Currency? ,” NBER Working Paper , No.14154, pp.1-30.
Eichengreen, Barry(2014), "International Currencies Past, Present and Future: Two Views from Economic History, " BOKWorkingPaper, No.2014-31, pp.1-24.
Horrod, Roy F.(1952), “The Pound Sterling, “Essay in International Finance, No.13, pp.1-42.
Herbert, Grubel (2005), “Small Country Benefits from Monetary Union,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.27, Issue.4, pp.509-523.
Kirshner, Johnathen (2014) , “Same As It Ever Was? Continuty and Change in the International Monetary System,” Review of International Political Economy, Vol.21. No.5. pp.1007-1016.
Kawai, Masahiro, Pontines, Victor(2014), “Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia?” ADBI Working Paper Series, No.467, pp.1-43.
McCauley, Robert (2011), “Renminbi Internationalization and China’s Financial Development,” BIS Quarterly Review, pp. 41-56.
Norrlof, Carla (2014),“Dollar hegemony : A Power Analysis,” Review of International Political Economy, Vol. 21, No. 5, pp.1042-1070.
Patnaik, Ila, Shah, Ajay(2010), ” Does the Currency Regime Shape Unhedged Currency Exposure? ” Journal of International Money and Finance
29, pp.760-769.
Posen, Barry R.(2003), “Command of the Commons: The Military of U.S. Hegemony, “International Security, Vol.28, No.1, pp.5-46.
Sekine, Eiichi(2015) “Aims and Prospects of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Proposed by China, “Nomura Journal of Capital Markets, Vol.6, No.4, pp.1-14.
Stokes, Doug(2014),” Achilles Deal Dollar Decline and US Grand Strategy After the Crisis,” Review of International Political Economy ,Vol. 21, No. 5, pp.1071-1094.
Seznec, Jean-Francois(2008), “Market Economy Without Democracy in the Gulf, ” Markets and Democracy, Vol13, No.6, pp.20-22.
Strange, Susan (1982), “Still an Extraordinary Power: America’s Role in a Global Monetary System,” in R., The Political Economy of Domestic and International Monetary Policy, pp.73-93.
Schenk, Catherine(2009), “The Retirement of Sterling as a Reserve Currency After 1945: Lessons for the US Dollar,” Copia mimeografiada, Universidad de Glasgow, mayo, pp.1-39.

四、官方文件

Bank for International Settlements(2013), “Triennial
Central Bank Survey Foreign exchange turnover in April 2013”
Bank for International Settlements(2016), “Triennial
Central Bank Survey Foreign exchange turnover in April 2016”
European Union(2016), ”Invoicing Currencies in International Trade-Drives and Obstacles to the Use of the EURO,”JRC Scientific and Policy Reports.
Ewe-Ghee Lim(2006), “The Euro’s Challenge to the Dollar: Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data, “IMF Working Paper
IMF working paper (2016), “Financial De-dollarization: A Global Perspective and the Peruvian Experience.”
Marc Auboin(2012), “Use of Currencies in International Trade: Any Changes in the Picture,”World Trade Organization Economic Research and Statistics Division.
National Intelligence Council(2012), “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,”
Office of the Secretary of Defense(2016), “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016, “United States Department of Defense.
UNCTAD(2017), “World Investment Report 2016 .”
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission(2014), “2014 Report to Congress.”

五、網路資料

BBC Business, “Government to Pay off WW1 Debt, “BBC(2017/4/26), http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30306579
Bloomberg, “China Plans 2020 Deadline for Dismantling Capital Controls, “https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/china-said-to-weigh-pledge-for-opening-capital-account-by-2020-ig1sbvez
Bloomberg, “Times Have Changed Since U.S. Last Named China a Currency Manipulator, “https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-19/trump-lacks-leverage-from-last-time-china-named-fx-manipulator
Barboza, David, “China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy,” The New York Times(2017/5/7), http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/business/global/16yuan.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.

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