臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

有鑒於近年全球環境日趨動盪及區域經濟整合已為發展趨勢，單一的突發事件之發生就可能造成全球供應鏈斷鍊危機，因而全世界所有企業無一可置身在供應風險（Supply Risk）之外；在此多變且高度敏感的時代，有效風險管理已為全球課題：如何建置一套緊急應變計畫，讓供應鏈在突發事件發生時可在最短時間內復原，是全球企業提升競爭優勢的一重大利器。
本研究主要是在探討訂購交期長短造成供應鏈韌性（Supply Chain Resilience）差異，在突發事件發生時，供應鏈成員面對無預警的交期失敗的抵禦能力及適應能力。供應鏈韌性表現在本文分為四階段：突發事件的事前準備程度、事中應變能力、事後恢復速度及衝擊擴大程度，透過電腦模擬多階供應鏈之庫存動態，比較不同交貨期供應鏈在此四階段之表現優劣。研究結果主要發現如下：（ㄧ）交期偏長的企業有較好的災難初期抵禦能力，但其適應能力及復原速度則相對較弱。（二）交期較長的供應鏈之災情擴散程度（缺貨期長短）比交期較短的供應鏈高。（三）由突發事件導致的訂購量異常會拖累企業的應變能力及復原速度。

Supply chain disruption resilience is getting more attention due to its significant importance in increasing complex and competitive economies. However, the studies regarding the factors that affect the firms’ resilience performance remain sparse. This research aims to gain more insights about the impact of suppliers’ replenishment lead-time, one of the intrinsic supply chain network characteristics, on supply chain resilience upon unexpected disruptive events, e.g. shipment failure. By modeling supply chain system dynamics with multi-echelon design, we have acquired in-depth understanding on the system-wide effects resulted from upstream shipment failure within various supply chains characterized with different average lead-times. We examine the influence of lead-time on resilience performance based on four measurements, namely readiness, response effectiveness, recovery rate (firm level) and impact propagation (supply chain level). The simulation result shows that the supply lead-time is positively related to readiness, yet negatively related to response effectiveness and recovery speed. It also demonstrates that without any contingency strategy taken place, larger impact (stockout duration) exists in the supply chains with longer replenishment lead-time and propagates from upstream to downstream.

ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III
TABLE OF CONTENTS IV
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background. 1
1.2 Research Motivation. 2
1.3 Research Objectives. 3
1.4 Research Structure. 4
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT 5
2.1 Theoretical Background. 5
2.1.1 Risk Dynamics. 5
2.1.2 Supply Chain Robustness. 6
2.2 Literature Review. 7
2.2.1 Linking Lead-time and Enterprise Operation. 7
2.2.2 Linking Lead-time and Supply Chain Performance. 9
2.3 Hypothesis Development. 12
2.3.1 Understanding Supply Chain Resilience (SCRES). 13
2.3.2 Assessing Supply Chain Resilience (SCRES). 16
2.3.3 The Influence of Lead-time on Robustness of SCRES. 18
2.3.4 The Influence of Lead-time on Agility of SCRES. 19
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 24
3.1 SCRES Performance Metrics. 24
3.2 Simulation Framework. 27
3.2.1 Supply Chain Configuration. 27
3.2.2 The Discrete Events System Dynamics Model. 29
3.2.3 Supply Disruption. 33
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 36
4.1 Evaluating SCRES Performance on 3Rs. 36
4.2 Evaluating SCRES Performance on Impact Propagation. 40
4.3 Investigating The Changes of Order Rate After Supply Disruption. 42
4.4 Investigating The Effect of Order Amplification on SCRES Performance. 43
4.5 Investigating The Influence of Replenishment Lead-time on The Effectiveness of Contingency Plan. 45
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 48
5.1 Main Findings and Discussions. 48
5.2 Research Limitations and Future Research Directions. 49
5.3 Research Contributions. 50
REFERENCES 51
APPENDICES 58
Appendix A: Simulation Parameters Setting 58
Appendix B: The APVIOBPCS Block Diagram in Simulink© 59

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