臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

全球暖化導致自然災害的頻率跟規模加劇，其中又以太平洋島國面對氣候變遷威脅的脆弱度特別高。氣候變遷所帶來其中一項不可忽視的災害──海平面上升，對人類造成生命及財產的損失，如：沿岸低窪地區的淹水、海水入侵、極端事件頻率增高而使洪水事件更加頻繁、以及濕地的消失等。區域海水面上升、風暴潮、極端高潮位、以及地表垂直變動都有可能導致暫時的或永久地表泛淹，因此，評估上述因子所造成的淹水潛勢對於海岸管理是一個很重要的課題。本研究以台灣為研究區域，結合數值地形模型、驗潮站以及衛星測高所重建的區域海水面變化、水準及GPS站觀測之垂直地表變形、以及最大天文潮模擬2112年沿岸靜態淹水情境。此外，本研究也利用聯合機率法分析驗潮站資料來模擬天文大潮及風暴潮所造成的極端海水面情境，再評估各區淹水之機率。為了避免對淹水潛勢造成高估，本研究採用以區域為分割基準的影像分割法──區域成長法，自地形模型萃取實際的海水淹沒範圍以產生淹水潛勢地圖，可供政府海岸以及土地管理部門制定因應全球氣候變遷相關災害的調適政策。

The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming that include more frequent and intense natural disasters. Seawater inundation, one of the most serious disasters, could damage human property and life, such as inundation of coastal low-lying area, saltwater intrusion, intense floods due to increasingly frequent extreme events, and loss of wetland. Regional sea level rise, storm surge, extreme high tide, and vertical land motions could result in episodic or permanent coastal inundation, so assessing potential flooding areas due to above mentioned factors is a critical task for coastal management. In this study, a simulation of static flooding scenario in Taiwan at the end of this century was conducted by using Taiwan DEM, regional sea level changes reconstructed by tide-gauge and altimetry data, vertical land deformation derived from leveling and GPS data, and ocean tides from models. In addition, extreme sea level scenario, which typically result from a high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. In order to avoid overestimation of inundation areas, a region-based image segmentation method was employed in the estimated future topographic data to generate the flood risk map. The risk assessment of flooding areas is potentially useful for coastal ocean and land management to develop appropriate adaptation policy for preventing disasters resulting from global climate change.

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Outlines 9
Chapter 2 Study area and Data 10
2.1 Study area 10
2.1.1 Geography of Taiwan 10
2.1.2 Rivers, Estuaries, and Wetlands 12
2.1.3 Typhoons 15
2.2 Data 16
2.2.1 Digital Elevation 16
2.2.2 Sea Level Variations 19
2.2.3 Vertical Land Motions 28
2.2.4 Highest Astronomical Tide 30
Chapter 3 Methodology 33
3.1 Static Flooding 33
3.1.1 Scenarios and Assumptions 33
3.1.2 Region growing algorithm 36
3.2 Extreme sea level 41
3.2.1 Probability of Exceedance and Return Periods 41
3.2.2 Tidal Analysis 44
3.2.3 Direct Joint Probability Method 46
3.3 Flowchart 51
Chapter 4 Results and discussion 52
4.1 Static Flood risk map for Taiwan 52
4.1.1 Scenarios results of inundation 52
4.1.2 Analysis of modified region growing algorithm 60
4.1.3 Wetlands loss 62
4.2 Extreme sea levels of Taiwan 65
4.2.1 Impact on urban areas 69
4.2.2 Land use assessment 71
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 74

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