臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在瞭解氣候變遷衝擊下對集水區沖蝕量、產砂量及沖淤分佈之影響，本研究以高屏溪流域為研究對象，並應用所發展之地文性土壤沖淤模式(PSED)模擬演算現況(Baseline1980-1999)及氣候變遷情境A1B-S(2020-2039)不同降雨條件(2、5、10、25、50、100及200年之24小時降雨)下流域內之土壤沖蝕量、產砂量及沖淤分佈，並分析氣候變遷衝擊下對集水區沖蝕量、產砂量及河沖淤分佈之影響。首先以2009年莫拉克(Morakot)颱風進行逕流歷線之模擬演算，以高屏溪三水文站之觀測流量歷線與模式演算結果進行比較，結果顯示，模擬之高屏溪集水區之逕流歷線與現場觀測之流量歷線之洪峰發生時刻相近且歷線形狀大致相符，表示模式可合理模擬降雨逕流。應用各水文站歷年之懸浮載觀測資料建立各水文站流量及輸砂量之關係，以2009年莫拉克(Morakot)颱風及2012年蘇拉颱風2場颱洪事件所模擬之流量與懸浮載輸運率演算結果，所模擬之流量—輸砂量關係，在實測資料範圍內，因此所模擬之懸浮載濃度相當合理，且據此所估算之懸浮載輸運率亦屬合理。進一步分析氣候變遷衝擊下對集水區沖蝕量、產砂量及河沖淤分佈之影響。結果顯示，氣候變遷A1BS情境降雨所造成之沖蝕量及產砂量較大，A1BS情境除了重現期距2年及5年集水區之沖蝕量及產砂量呈現下降1.75~6.75%及3.07~16.49%，其他各重現期距年降雨事件之集水區沖蝕量及產砂量較現況之集水區之沖蝕量及產砂量分別約增加3~24%與10~65%。氣候變遷情境之集水區沖蝕及淤積深度均較現況基期為深，河道沖刷能力及河床淤積高度亦隨著流域高程及坡度的不同，且高屏溪流域淤積較嚴重的位置為河道。因此相關單位必須及早因應因淤積量遽增所導致之災害，並研擬對策。

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on sediment yield, and soil erosion and deposition distribution at a basin located in southern Taiwan. A numerical model, Physiographic Soil Erosion-Deposition (PSED) Model is verified and applied to simulate the above factors like discharge, suspended sediment transport rate, and sediment yield under baseline (1980 ‑ 1999), and climate change scenario A1B-S (2020 – 2039), for a 24‑hour design rainfall for 7 return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-year). The model was verified first to simulate with a good result, by using the rainfall and discharge data from typhoon Morakot (2009) in three stations distributed over the basin. Flow hydrographs and sediment graphs were in close agreement for the observed and simulated data under typhoon events (Morakot and Suza) at Kaoping River Basin. Besides that, the depth of erosion and deposition for the basin increase under climate change scenario A1B-S compare with baseline. The level of erosion and deposition depend on return period and distribution follow the elevation and slope steep. The maps could be used by the respective personnel for planning and management purposes in Kaoping River Basin. Finally, soil erosion and sediment yield is reduced by 1.75~6.75% and 3.07~16.49% under A1B-S, 2-year and 5‑year return period, respectively and increased by up to 3~24% and 10~65% for 10-, 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return period. So rainfall and sediment yield have benefit relationship under climate change.

Table of Contents
Abstract i
Acknowledgements iii
Table of Contents v
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 General 1
1.2 Statement of the problem 2
1.3 Objective of Study 4
1.4 Structure of the thesis 4
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 6
2.1 Climate change 6
2.2 Sources of sediment 7
2.2.1 Soil erosion 7
2.2.2 Sediment yield 10
2.2.3 Review of climate change effect on soil erosion, deposition and sediment yield 12
2.2.4 Previous application of Physiographic Soil Erosion-Deposition model 14
CHAPTER 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 17
3.1 Description of the Study Area 17
3.2 Data collection and Preparation 20
3.2.1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Data 20
3.2.2 Soil types 21
3.2.2 Land use/land cover data 22
3.2.3 River discharge and suspended sediment load 24
3.2.4 Rainfall and temperature data 25
3.3 Methods 27
3.3.1 Introduction 27
3.3.2 Physiographic Soil Erosion-Deposition model (PSED) 28
3.3.3 Simulation process of the PSED model 34
CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 37
4.1 Model Verification 37
4.1.1 Comparisons between simulation and measured discharge hydrographs 38
4.1.2 Comparisons between simulated and measured suspended sediment transport rates 41
4.2 The simulation of flow discharge for Kaoping River Basin 50
4.3 Soil erosion and sediment yield under climate change 58
4.4 Soil erosion and Deposition distribution 59
4.2.1 Soil erosion distribution 59
4.2.2 Deposition distribution 65
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 73
5.1 Conclusions 73
5.2 Recommendations 74
References 75
Appendix A. Kaohsiung average rainfall 82
Appendix B. Kaohsiung average temperature 84
Bio-sketch of Author 86

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