臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

颱風在海洋表面和上層海洋產生冷尾跡和湧升流，且容易受到颱風狀態、海洋上層結構以及海底地形的影響。本研究利用三維水動力模式SCHISM(Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model) ，設計一理想颱風於緯度20 度由西向東通過理想海洋，研究其產生冷尾跡和湧升流之機制，並有系統性地比較海洋在不同海底地形、颱風強度、移動速度、海表溫度、混和層深度和26度等溫線深度設定對颱風於海洋產生冷尾跡和湧升流之影響差異。其後，以凡那比颱風做為模擬的例子，並利用模式檢驗模擬結果是否與觀測現象符合。
研究結果顯示颱風對海洋產生冷尾跡之機制為：颱風在路徑右側因摩擦拖曳海水產生強流，使颱風後方水位降低，為恢復颱風造成之低水位，水流應從四周湧入，但颱風吹風方向為輻射向外，阻擋四周水流入，因此僅能從颱風下方補充，形成強烈的湧升流，而湧升流在上升的過程當中，會被颱風逆時針的風向帶至颱風路徑之右側，所以冷尾跡才會經常出現在路徑右側。另外，經分析經此等現象產生之颱風中心最大溫降和各海洋、颱風與地形等因子變化後，研究發現地形只在500公尺內的海域有影響，颱風強度和海表最大下降溫度呈現乘冪正相關，移動速度和26度等溫線深度設定呈現乘冪負相關，而混和層深度則和海表最大下降溫度影響相關程度不大。本研究利用高相關度的移動速度和最大風速假設其關係式，並利用試誤法推估出颱風產生冷尾跡後，在颱風中心能夠產生多少溫降之颱風中心模擬溫降回歸公式：
颱風中心模擬溫降〖∆T〗_core=〖10〗^(-10)×〖颱風移動速度〗^6.3×〖颱風近中心最大風速〗^(-1.4)
當颱風中心模擬溫降超過2.5℃，颱風強度便可能停止增強甚至是減弱。本研究模擬凡那比颱風結果在現象上相當不錯，發現到當颱風移動速度過慢或是颱風速度太強時，有可能產生更強烈的湧升流，導致海水上升速度更快，也因為颱風風速增強使得右側流速更快，就有可能將右後方的冷水團推至颱風前方，導致颱風遇上自己產生的海表冷卻，導致自身的強度受到影響，導致停止增強或是減弱。
研究將公式代入凡那比、天兔颱風等之資料，發現的確在超過大約2.5℃之後，颱風的強度即不再增強。但也發現此公式並非絕對，可能會有產生高估或低估的狀況，因本公式假設颱風是在平常的西北太平洋狀態，當前方出現冷暖渦，或是水深變淺時等其它可能會影響整個現象時，便有可能會產生誤差，因此，此公式仍有待改善，但已能做簡易之參考。

Typhoon usually produces cold and upwelling on the sea surface and upper ocean. They are easily effected by typhoon status, upper ocean structure and seabed. In this study, we design an idealize typhoon passing thought an idealize ocean at 20˚N by using three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model). We study for their mechanisms and using different depth of seabed, typhoon’s strength, typhoon’s speed, sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth and 26 degree isotherm depth setting to see what will the sea surface temperature at typhoon center difference between each case. Then, we try to simulation the typhoon fanapi to see the model effective.
The result shows that the mechanism of cold wake and upwelling by typhoon.
Because of the drag force, the strong wind generate a strong flow on the typhoon’s right path. It cause an low elevation on the back of typhoon. To balance the elevation, surrounding seawater must flow into this area. But the typhoon blows out. That makes only the subsurface cold water can comes up. So, the upwelling appeared. By counterclockwise horizontal flow, that makes the upwelling reach right hand side of typhoon’s path. In addition, the maximum decrease of sea surface temperature at typhoon center was analyzed with the factors we just talk about. Analysis shows the terrain affects only found within 500 meters of the sea. The typhoon intensity and sea surface temperature showing the maximum decline exponentiation positive correlation. Movement speed and 26 degree isotherm depth setting presented a power of negative correlation, while the depth of the mixed layer and the sea surface temperature has only a little effect on the maximum decrease of the temperature at typhoon center. In this study, the maximum wind speed and typhoon movement speed has a highly correlation with it so that we can assumed an equation to connect them. We use try error method to let the equation close to our idealize result. The equation following by:
the maximum decrease of the temperature at typhoon center(〖∆T〗_core)intensify=〖10〗^(-10)×〖typhoon movement speed〗^6.3×〖typhoon maximum wind speed〗^(-1.4)
The equation are very precise when we simulation the typhoon fanapi. We find out when the 〖∆T〗_core<2.5℃ , typhoon fanapi stop intensification because of it let it’s cold wake influence itself. When typhoon go too slow or intensify too strong, it will make the right side’s horizontal flow brings the cold wake to the front of typhoon and let it stop drawing energy from the ocean.
Keywords: typhoon strength, cold wake, upwelling, non-structural grid, hydrodynamic model

論文審定書………………………………………………………………………………i
謝誌 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract v
圖目錄 ix
表目錄 xiii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究問題與目的 3
1.3 研究流程 3
1.4 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
2.1 颱風生成發展與海洋條件 6
2.2 海洋對颱風之影響 11
2.3 颱風對海洋之作用 20
第三章 研究方法 30
3.1 前言 30
3.2 水動力模式：數值模式-SCHISM 30
3-2-1 控制方程式 32
3-2-2 模式特性 34
3-2-3 理想海洋場溫度設定 36
3.3 理想颱風模式 37
第四章 案例測試 39
4-1 前言 39
4-2 案例設計 39
4-3 案例分析 40
4-4 水深、地形變化 59
4-5 颱風風速及移動速度變化 62
4-6 海洋狀態變化 75
4-7 小結與回歸公式 77
第五章 實際颱風模擬 78
第六章 結論與建議 82
參考文獻 84

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