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研究生:黃盈如
研究生(外文):Ying-Ru Huang
論文名稱:經濟成長、二氧化碳排放、能源消耗、核能與再生能源消耗之實證分析-以台灣為例
論文名稱(外文):An Empirical Study on Economic Growth, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption, Nuclear Energy and Renewable Energy Consumption - A Case Study of Taiwan
指導教授:曾憲郎曾憲郎引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chin Shan-non
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2017
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:43
中文關鍵詞:能源消耗量經濟成長核能消耗量二氧化碳排放量再生能源消耗量因果關係
外文關鍵詞:energy consumptioneconomic growthcarbon dioxide emissionsnuclear energy consumptionGranger causality testrenewable energy consumption
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面臨全球氣候變遷,環保意識抬頭,節能減碳盛行,但當政府制定相關能源政策時,必須先了解能源消耗與經濟成長及二氧化碳排放之間的關係,本研究將採用低碳的核能及再生能源進行細部探討。
本研究利用EViews軟體透過單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量誤差修正模型及Granger因果關係檢定來探討分析台灣1990年至2015年期間的經濟成長、能源消耗量、二氧化碳排放量、核能與再生能源消耗量五者之間的因果關係。
實證結果表明,能源消耗量與二氧化碳排放量相互影響具有雙向因果關係;能源消耗量對於經濟成長有單向的因果關係;經濟成長與二氧化碳排放量之間具有雙向因果關係,表示經濟成長與二氧化碳排放量尚未脫鉤,若採取節能政策,必須有計畫性的控制能源使用,以避免反向影響經濟成長。
二氧化碳排放量會影響再生能源消耗量但再生能源消耗不會影響二氧化碳排放量,故二氧化碳排放量與再生能源消耗量有單向因果關係;核能消耗量會影響二氧化碳的排放量但二氧化碳排放量不影響核能消耗量,故核能消耗量對於二氧化碳排放量具有單向因果關係。再生能源消耗量與核能消耗量不影響經濟成長故無因果關係。
It is necessary to understand the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions when the government develops relevant energy policies. This study will discuss low-carbon nuclear energy and renewable energy sources in details.
In this study, EViews software was used to analyze the economic growth, energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear energy and renewable energy consumption of Taiwan from 1990 to 2015 through unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction model and Granger causality test.
The empirical results show that there is a two-way relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Energy consumption has a one-way causality for economic growth. There is a two-way relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. Economic growth has not been decoupled from carbon dioxide, a carefully-planned energy conservation policy is required to avoid slowing down the economic growth .
Carbon dioxide emissions will affect renewable energy consumption but renewable energy consumption will not affect carbon dioxide emissions, so carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy consumption has a one-way causal relationship; nuclear energy consumption will affect carbon dioxide emissions but carbon dioxide emissions do not affect nuclear energy consumption, so nuclear energy consumption for carbon dioxide emissions have a one-way causal relationship. Renewable energy consumption and nuclear energy consumption does not affect the economic growth so there is no causal relationship.
論文審定書 i
誌 謝 ii
摘 要 iii
Abstract iv
目 錄 v
圖 目 錄 vi
表 目 錄 vii

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 能源消耗、二氧化碳及經濟成長 6
第二節 再生能源與經濟成長 8
第三節 核能消耗與經濟成長 10
第三章 研究方法 11
第一節 單根檢定 11
第二節 共整合檢定 14
第三節 向量自我迴歸模型(Vector Autoregressive, VAR) 18
第四節 向量誤差修正模型(Vector Error Correction Model,VECM) 20
第五節 Granger因果關係檢定 21
第四章 實證分析 23
第一節 資料說明 23
第二節 單根檢定 23
第三節 最適落後期數 25
第四節 共整合檢定 25
第五節 向量誤差修正模型(VECM) 26
第六節 Granger因果關係檢定 27
第五章 結論與建議 28
第一節 結論 28
第二節 建議 30
參考文獻 31
參考文獻
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三、網站資訊:
1.行政院環境保護署http://www.epa.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=9958&ctNode=31350&mp=epa
2.行政院主計總處
https://www.dgbas.gov.tw/pointlist.asp
3.經濟部能源局
http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/ECW/populace/home/Home.aspx
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