美國國家籃球協會自1949年成立至今，始終是目前全球最高水準之職業籃球賽事，是所有愛好籃球朋友之最高殿堂，目前也是北美四大職業運動之一。隨著運動風氣的提升，加上不久前之林來瘋，籃球也是國人矚目的運動之一。然而，由於運動科學普及化及運動彩卷風氣的提升，不少人紛紛投入精力在嘗試找出勝負的關鍵因素。
正因如此，本研究欲以階層線性模式探討各球隊中之球員每年外在因素及整體攻防屬性對於各年勝率之影響效果為何，研究對象以美國職籃自1996-97球季至2015-16球季各球隊為例，並以各隊球員之外在因素為出發點，且總體層次之解釋變數將為其整體攻防特徵變數，以更完整地探討籃球比賽之勝率關鍵因素。
本研究結果顯示，球員球齡、狀元人數、球齡標準差、美籍球員比例與身高極大值對於球隊勝率具有顯著之影響，其中，球齡標準差及美籍球員比例為負向關係；且在長期情況下，球隊若能有效提高投籃命中率及籃板球的掌控，也具有正向之顯著影響效果。

The National Basketball Association(NBA) was established in 1949, and is widely considered to be the premier men’s professional basketball league in the world. The league has been the highest level for every player nowadays, and also one of the four major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada. Due to the promotion of the awareness of physical exercise and the big event, Linsanity, basketball games are also one of the fully-favored sports in Taiwan. However, the popularization of exercise science and health and the enhancement of interest of sports lottery make everyone love to figure out the impact factor of winning-ratio in basketball games.
Therefore, this study would love to find out how the external factor of players in each team and the overall attributes of offensive and defensive records impact the result of every game. The objects of study are each team in the NBA from season 1996-97 to season 2015-16. The external factor of players would be regarded as the intention of this study, and the explanatory variables of macro-level would be the characteristic variables. This study would explore the impact factors of basketball games more completely.

目錄
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 2
1.3 論文架構 3
第二章文獻探討 4
2.1 球員之外在因素影響 4
2.1.1 球員薪資 4
2.1.2 球員球齡 7
2.1.3 外籍球員之影響 8
2.1.4 球員選秀順位 8
2.1.5 球員身高與體重 9
2.2 球員技術表現因素 10
2.3 影響球隊勝率因素之相關研究結論 11
第三章研究方法 12
3.1 階層線性模型 12
3.1.1 階層線性模型之介紹 12
3.2 研究架構 13
3.3 變項設定 14
3.3.1 球員之外在因素 15
3.3.2 球員之技術表現 16
3.4 實證模型設定 19
3.4.1 零模型 19
3.4.2 具有隨機效果之共變數模型 20
3.4.3 脈絡模型 22
3.4.4 非隨機斜率模型 23
3.4.5 階層線性模型之分析方法 25
3.4.6 階層線性模型之配適性 27
第四章實證分析 28
4.1 資料來源及敘述性統計分析 28
4.1.1 資料來源 28
4.1.2 敘述性統計分析 28
4.2 實證分析結果 30
4.2.1 零模型 30
4.2.2 具有隨機效果之共變數模型 32
4.2.3 脈絡模型 35
4.2.4 非隨機斜率模型 37
4.3 模型之配適性 41
第五章結論與建議 42
5.1 研究結論 42
5.1.1 影響各球隊勝率之重要因子 42
5.1.2 球隊之勝率方程式 43
5.2 管理意涵 44
5.3 未來研究建議 45
參考文獻 46

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學位論文
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數據資料
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