隨著全球高齡化時代來臨，健康醫療產業將是未來全球最重要的發展趨勢之一，如脊椎退化、骨關節炎等骨骼肌肉系統退化病變，將進一步推升全球骨科醫材的市場需求。骨科相關手術的數量在前10大手術中佔比達到40%，是整體住院手術中的最大宗，其中脊椎相關手術又在骨科手術中排名第2，因此，在龐大需求下，越來越多公司相繼投入脊椎醫材，而全球創業投資業者也無法置身事外，勢必將持續投入大量資金投入於該產業。雖然投資創新脊椎醫材之新創公司至為重要，但過去少有妥善評價新興脊椎醫材的方法，而傳統的淨現值法(NPV)無法因應快速變動、且未來不確定的產業，因此，創投公司往往無法精確計算公司之價值，投資計劃往往失真。為修正傳統淨現值法的缺點，解決評價誤差的問題，提供創業投資業者新的評估方法。因此，本研究擬導入基於多準則決策分析架構之模糊實質選擇權(Fuzzy Real Option Analysis)法。本方法將可以改善淨現值法的缺點，精確地評估投資計劃的真實價值，分析該公司在面對如延遲(defer)、放棄(abandon)、縮小(contract)、擴大(expand)等不同決策選擇時，所創造之價值，以驗證該公司在不同決策選擇下確實存在彈性價值。本研究將以台灣新興脊椎醫材新創公司為例，評估其投資價值，研究結果除了能提供創投業者公司經營者投資決策的重要依據，分析架構也可由創業投資業者應用於其他投資案標的公司的價值評估。

With global aging era arriving, health care and biochemical industry become one of the most important developments in the near future. Spinal degeneration and other joint degeneration health concerns will play an important part of global market demand on bone related medical devices. Bone-related operations reaches 40% in top 10 operations has become the biggest portion of hospitalization operations of a whole. Spinal related operations come in second on the number of bone-related operations. Due to the enormous market demand, more companies successively pay attention to this industry. Surely the global venture capitalists (VC) will not ignore this current and will continuously bank heavily in this industry. As VCs all know that investment on innovative spinal related industry is a must, however, there is no valid and proper evaluation method on the market. The Net Present Value (NPV) method is not able to represent the reality of current ever changing industrial environment, thus it cannot provide a close to reality value to a company for an investment proposal. Venture capitalists are in need of a new method which eliminates the drawbacks of the Net Present Value (NPV) method. We believe through Fuzzy Real Option method, we can eliminate the drawbacks from NPV and will be able to evaluate the actual value on an investment proposal precisely. It will also evaluate the predicted values to the company when it is given different strategical options, such as defer, abandon, contract, and expand to prove the existence of flexible value when undergo different strategies. Fuzzy real option not only can provide the crucial piece of information for the CEO of the company when it comes to strategy making, but also can help VCs determine the value of the investment proposal of a potential investing candidate. This research will not only be focused on studying a newly established spinal medical device company and through fuzzy real option method to provide a piece of importance decision making information for the venture capitalists, but also can be used as an evaluation method for other investment projects.

摘要 i
Abstract. ii
Table of Contents vii
List of Table ix
List of Figure xi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Thesis Background 1
1.2 Thesis Motivations 3
1.3 Thesis Objectives 6
1.4 Thesis Methods 7
1.5 Thesis Framework 8
1.6 Research Limitations 10
Chapter 2 Literature Review 13
2.1 Venture Capital (VC) 13
2.2 Capital Budget evaluation methods 31
2.3 Real Option 39
Chapter 3 Research Method 49
3.1 Modified Delphi Method 49
3.2 Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) 53
3.3 DEMATEL based Network Process (DNP) 57
3.4 Fuzzy Real Options Valuation (ROV) 62
3.5 Evaluation criteria of investments project for VC 73
Chapter 4 Model Analysis 79
4.1 The Vertebral Compression Fractures (VCF) 79
4.2 Empirical Study Cases 86
4.3 Empirical Study 88
4.4 Fuzzy Real Option Value by Binomial Method 116
Chapter 5 Discussion 127
5.1 Analytic Results Based On the Experts’ Opinions 127
5.2 Future Research Possibilities 137
Chapter 6 Conclusion 139
Reference. 143
Appendix... 151

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