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研究生:張明如
研究生(外文):ZHANG,MING-RU
論文名稱:碳排放總量限制下的環境總體經濟政策研究---兼論IS-LM-EE模型的穩定性
論文名稱(外文):The Study of Environmental Macroeconomic Policy under Carbon Emission Constraint---Concurrently Discussing on Stability of IS-LM-EE Model
指導教授:李堅明李堅明引用關係
指導教授(外文):LEE,CHIEN-MING
口試委員:蕭代基黃宗煌張四立胡均立林師模李堅明
口試日期:2017-07-07
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:自然資源與環境管理研究所
學門:環境保護學門
學類:環境資源學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2017
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:125
中文關鍵詞:IS-LM-EE模型碳排放交易制度永續發展環境總體經濟學
外文關鍵詞:IS-LM-EE ModelCarbon Emission Trading SystemSustainable DevelopmentEnvironmental Macroeconomics
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我們生存的環境資源是有限的,如何利用有限的自然資源實現經濟與社會的永續發展是各國政府與經濟學家必須考慮的問題之一。溫室氣體造成的全球氣候變暖正在威脅到人類的生存與發展,國際社會共同努力進行碳減排勢在必行。在Daly提出環境總體經濟學概念後,Heyes運用IS-LM-EE模型探討自然資源限制下的環境經濟政策對經濟成長的影響。本文研究環境資本與物質資本之間是替代還是互補關係,分析IS-LM-EE模型的穩定性條件。本文在Heyes的IS-LM-EE模型基礎上,把廠商減排投資與碳排放總量控制分別引入到IS與EE曲線,構建具有自動調整機製的IS-LM-EE模型,比較碳稅與碳排放總量控制與交易制度的優劣。研究結果表明在碳排放總量限制下,碳稅制度對經濟成長影響較小,但是在現實社會中,更多的國家主張通過碳排放交易制度實現減排目標。本文研究在實行碳排放總量控制與交易制度的情況下,把社會碳排放總需求曲線引入到IS-LM-EE模型,建立跨地區的IS-LM-EE模型。研究碳交易市場連接中環境經濟政策變動可能造成的影響。本文利用更新核配原則對2017年中國各個省份的碳排放權進行了核配,研究發現,碳排放權核配的效率標準要優於公平標準。
The environmental resources are limited on the earth, the governments and economists must consider how to achieve sustainable economic and social development by using the limited natural resources. Global Warming is threatening the survival and development of mankind, thus, it is imperative to combat global warming by abating carbon emission with the concerted efforts of the international community. Heyes had investigated the effect of environmental economic policy on economic growth with the constraints of the natural resource by using IS-LM-EE model after Daly proposed the concept of environmental macroeconomics. This paper studies the substitute or complementary relationship between environmental capital and material capital and analyzes the stability conditions of IS-LM-EE model. The stability conditions of standard IS-LM-EE model is the IS curve being steeper than the EE curve when environmental capital and physical capital are substitute in production, or ,EE curve being steeper than the LM curve when environmental capital and physical capital are complements in production. The paper constructs the IS-LM-EE model with automatic adjustment mechanism by introducing the investment action of manufacturer's emission reduction into EE curves with total carbon emission constraint and compares the good and bad of the carbon tax system and the carbon emission cap-and-trade system. This paper also studies the influence of environmental economic policy on GDP in the international connection with carbon trading market. The research finds that the targets of carbon emission reduction will be effectively achieved through carbon emissions trading system, and the carbon emission property rights allocation with an endogenous mixed grandfathering rule and updated rule will achieve performance of cost effectiveness, environmental effectiveness and fairness.
目 錄

謝 辭………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ
中文論文提要………………………………………………………………Ⅱ
英文論文提要………………………………………………………………III
目錄…………………………………………………………………………Ⅳ
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………VII
表目錄………………………………………………………………………VIII

第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究背景及意義……………………………………………………1
一、研究背景……………………………………………………………1
二、研究意義……………………………………………………………7
三、研究目的……………………………………………………………8
第二節 研究方法、研究內容與研究框架…………………………………9
一、 研究方法……………………………………………………………9
二、 研究內容與研究框架………………………………………………10
第三節 主要創新點與不足之處…………………………………………12
一、 主要創新點…………………………………………………………12
二、 不足之處……………………………………………………………13
第二章 理論基礎與文獻綜述……………………………………………14
第一節 理論基礎…………………………………………………………14
一、 IS-LM模型…………………………………………………………14
二、 微分代數系統穩定性理論…………………………………………15
三、 碳稅理論……………………………………………………………18
四、 碳排放交易理論……………………………………………………20
第二節 研究綜述…………………………………………………………23
一、 永續發展理論 ……………………………………………………..23
二、 IS-LM-EE模型的演變……………………………………………26
第三章 IS-LM-EE 模型的穩定性………………………………………33
第一節 自然資本與人造資本的替代或互補關係研究…………………33
一、 引言………………………………………………………………33
二、 自然資本與人造資本的替代還是互補…………………………35
第二節 IS-LM-EE 模型的穩定性條件……………………………………38
一、 IS-LM-EE模型的建立……………………………………………38
二、 IS-LM-EE 模型穩定性研究………………………………………39
三、 Heyes與Decker和Wohar的IS-LM-EE 模型進一步分析……42
四、 環境限制下的經濟成長空間……………………………………53
第三節 小結………………………………………………………………55
第四章 碳排放總額限制下的IS-LM-EE模型……………………………56
第一節 碳排放總量限制下的IS-LM-EE模型比較靜態分析……………56
一、 引言………………………………………………………………56
二、 碳排放總量限制下的IS-LM-EE模型比較靜態分析…………58
第二節 跨區域的IS-LM-EE模型…………………………………………87
一、 IS-LM-EE模型下的碳排放權需求曲線…………………………87
二、 兩地區間不進行碳排放交易的IS-LM-EE模型…………………88
三、 兩地區進行碳排放權交易的IS-LM-EE模型……………………91
四、 兩地區具有獨立貨幣政策下的IS-LM-EE模型…………………94
五、 國際碳價固定下的IS-LM-EE模型………………………………95
第三節 小結………………………………………………………………98
第五章 碳排放總量限制下的碳排放權核配制度設計研究…………100
第一節 前言……………………………………………………………100
第二節 內生混合核配模型……………………………………………102
一、 內生混合核配原則………………………………………………102
二、 模型設定與求解…………………………………………………105
三、 先期減量獎勵誘因機制…………………………………………107
第三節 中國大陸省級碳排放權試行核配………………………………111
一、 情境設計…………………………………………………………111
二、 核配結果分析……………………………………………………114
第四節 小結……………………………………………………………116
第六章 結論與未來研究規劃……………………………………………118
第一節 結論……………………………………………………………118
第二節 未來研究規劃…………………………………………………120
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………122


圖 目 錄
圖1-1 研究思路架構…………………………………………………………12
圖2-1 碳稅與碳排放量………………………………………………………20
圖3-1 自然資本與人造資本間的替代或互補關係…………………………37
圖3-2 IS-LM-EE模型的穩定性條件………………………………………41
圖3-3 自然資本與人造資本替代下的財政貨幣政策……………………46
圖3-4 自然資本與人造資本互補下的財政貨幣政策……………………50
圖3-5 自然資本與人造資本替代下的技術進步對經濟政策的影響……52
圖3-6 自然資本與人造資本互補下的技術進步對經濟政策的影響……52
圖3-7 短期內資源限制下的經濟成長空間………………………………54
圖3-8 長期內資源限制下的經濟成長空間………………………………54
圖4-1 加入減排投資的EE曲線位置圖…………………………………70
圖4-2 垂直EE曲線下的擴張性財政政策………………………………74
圖4-3 垂直EE曲線下的擴張性貨幣政策………………………………75
圖4-4 垂直EE曲線下的環境政策………………………………………76
圖4-5 IS曲線比EE曲線陡峭情況下的擴張性貨幣政策………………77
圖4-6 LM曲線比EE曲線陡峭情況下的擴張性財政政策………………81
圖4-7 LM曲線比EE曲線陡峭情況下的擴張性貨幣政策………………82
圖4-8 LM曲線比EE曲線陡峭情況下的環境政策………………………83
圖4-9 LM曲線比EE曲線平緩情況下的的擴張性財政政策……………85
圖5-1  防制誘因彈性為負一情況下的混合核配原則之排放量比較…108
圖5-2  防制誘因彈性小於負一情況下的排放量比較…………………110
表 目 錄

表1-1 全球氣候評估報告要點及影響……………………………………5
表1-2 《聯合國氣候變遷框架公約》締約方會議統計表………………6
表2-1 特徵值、平衡點的類型和穩定性…………………………………17
表2-2 溫室氣體排放交易制度里程碑……………………………………22
表2-3 現有碳排放交易制度中的配額分配方法…………………………23
表3-1 擴張性財政政策與貨幣政策的成本收益分析……………………48
表4-1 矩陣 與 的代數餘子式符號……………………………………72
表4-2 不同制度設計下的財政政策、貨幣政策與環境政策……………86
表5-1 2010年-2014年的中國大陸個省份實際碳排放量……………112
表5-2 2017年大陸碳排放核配結果……………………………………115
表5-3 不同情境下的減排目標…………………………………………116


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