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研究生:曹博凱
研究生(外文):Po-Kai Tsao
論文名稱:中國的多樣差序政府信任:一項基於第三波亞洲民主動態調查的分析
論文名稱(外文):Diverse Hierarchical Trust of China: An Analysis Based on the Third Wave of Asian Barometer Survey
指導教授:周嘉辰周嘉辰引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chia-Chen Chou
口試日期:2017-07-24
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:綜合社會及行為科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2017
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:97
中文關鍵詞:差序政府信任政治信任中國民眾政府表現評價政治價值觀
外文關鍵詞:hierarchical trustpolitical trustChinese peopleevaluation about government performancepolitical value
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中國大陸有別於一般民主國家,民眾對中央政府的信任普遍高於地方政府,這種信任模式被稱為「差序政府信任」(hierarchical trust)。然而,差序政府信任所代表的實質意涵仍有待進一步探究。民眾對中央政府表達高度信任的現象,無疑是對中共統治正當性的最好支撐,但是當民眾同時對地方政府表達相對較低的信任時,就未必再對中共的統治正當性有同樣的助益。近期的文獻發現,持有差序政府信任的民眾,其實對政體的滿意度是較低的。
為了釐清差序政府信任的真實意涵,本文認為有必要將差序政府信任進一步分類。本文依據民眾對中央和地方政府的信任與否,將差序政府信任分類成三種類型,分別為「均信任的差序信任」、「只信任中央的差序信任」和「均不信任的差序信任」,其中,前兩種是主要的差序信任類型,也將會是本文議論的重點。既有文獻大多將這三種類型歸為一種進行研究,而本文將其分為三種是因為,當民眾對地方政府的政治態度由信任轉向不信任時,很可能就是民眾對整個體制表達懷疑乃至不滿的開始,因此,若缺乏這個分類,將會錯估不同類型民眾的政治態度。
本文使用亞洲民主動態調查(Asian Barometer Survey)中國大陸第三波的調查資料,並主要從「對政府表現的評價」和「政治價值觀」兩項影響政治信任的因素來探究不同類型的差序政府信任。統計分析結果顯示,造成「均信任的差序信任」的主因是民眾對中央和地方兩種政府表現評價的差異,「只信任中央的差序信任」則是由各面向的政治價值觀所塑造而成。此外,本文也證明了兩種主要差序信任類型的最主要差異在於「只信任中央的差序信任」明確地表達了對政體的不滿。
The literature has long recognized that unlike in democracies, many Chinese people are more trustful in their central government than in local governments. This phenomenon is largely defined as “hierarchical trust”. However, what it really stands for requires further investigations. When citizens of China show high levels of trust in central government, it is without a doubt the best support for the legitimacy of CCP’s rule. But when citizens have lower trust in local governments simultaneously, the support for CCP’s legitimacy might decrease. Recent studies have shown that citizens who have hierarchical trust actually have a lower degree of satisfaction of the regime.
To clarify the concept of hierarchical trust, this thesis believes that it is needed to further categorize hierarchical trust into different types. I argue that among those who have hierarchical trust, some only trust the central government, while other trust both the central and the local governments, although the level of trust of the local governments is lower. Accordingly, the first type of hierarchical trust is “trust in both the central and the local governments”, the second type is “only trust in the central government”, and the third type is “distrust in both the local and the central governments”. This thesis focuses on the first two types as my empirical data shows that they are the major types of Chinese people’s hierarchical trust. While existing studies usually conflate these three types as one, this thesis finds that the division is necessary because when people start to distrust the local governments, they might also start to doubt the whole regime. If no distinction is made, we will easily misestimate the political attitude of different types of people.
This thesis uses the third wave of Asian Barometer Survey to illustrate the different types of hierarchical trust. In my model, “evaluation about government performance” and “political value” are the main independent variables. The regression analysis shows that the “trust in both central and local governments” mainly results from people’s different evaluations of the central and the local governments. In addition, people who “only trust in the central government and not in the local governments” usually have different political values. Besides of that, this thesis also demonstrates that the major difference between the first two types of hierarchical trust lies in the fact that the first type of hierarchical trust, namely “only trust in the central government” has an explicit dissatisfaction toward the regime, and the other type of hierarchical trust does not.
誌 謝 i
摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
第一章 緒 論 5
第一節 研究緣起與問題意識 5
壹、研究緣起 5
貳、問題意識 7
第二節 研究目的與主要研究問題 8
壹、研究目的 8
貳、主要研究問題 8
第二章 相關理論回顧與文獻探討 10
第一節 相關概念檢討 10
壹、政治信任 10
貳、政治信任的不同層次─普涵支持和特定支持 11
參、差序政府信任的現象 13
第二節 相關理論檢討 16
壹、影響政治信任的因素 16
貳、影響中國政治信任的因素及其對差序政府信任之作用 20
參、政治價值觀與差序政府信任 25
第三節 相關研究檢討 28
壹、將中央與地方政府的政治信任視為同層次信任的研究 28
貳、將中央與地方政府的政治信任視為不同層次信任的研究 29
參、小結 31
第三章 研究設計 32
第一節 研究途徑與研究方法 32
壹、研究途徑 32
貳、研究方法 33
第二節 研究架構與研究假設 33
壹、研究架構 33
貳、研究假設 35
第三節 概念界定、操作性定義與測量 37
壹、依變項─差序政府信任 37
貳、自變項 37
參、控制變項 39
肆、小結 41
第四節 研究對象與資料來源 43
壹、資料來源 43
貳、研究對象 44
第五節 分析工具 44
壹、描述性統計分析(descriptive statistics) 44
貳、因素分析(Factor Analysis) 44
參、卡方檢定與單因子變異數分析 44
肆、羅吉斯迴歸(logistic regression) 44
第四章 研究結果與發現 46
第一節 中國民眾政治信任的分佈狀況 46
壹、中央政府 46
貳、地方政府 46
參、差序政府信任 48
第二節 影響多樣差序政府信任因素之檢定 50
壹、對政府表現的評價與差序政府信任 55
貳、政治價值觀與差序政府信任 58
第三節 多樣差序政府信任之迴歸分析 62
壹、模型一:政府表現評價與多樣差序政府信任 63
貳、模型二:政治價值觀與多樣差序政府信任 65
參、模型三和四:政府表現評價、政治價值觀與多樣差序政府信任 67
肆、差序政府信任─民族主義與上訪民眾的縮影 71
第五章 結論 78
第一節 主要研究發現 78
壹、中國民眾政治信任的分佈狀況 78
貳、不同類型差序政府信任的內涵以及產生的原因 78
第二節 其他研究發現 83
壹、政治宣傳與媒體的影響 83
貳、中國傳統文化的影響 83
參、政治參與的影響 84
肆、人口社會學變項的影響 84
第三節 後續研究建議 85
壹、關於將差序政府信任分類的必要性 85
貳、關於自變項的改進 85
參考文獻 87
壹、中文 87
貳、英文 88
附 錄 94

表 1 差序政府信任的不同類型 6
表 2 中國四種信任模式的比較 13
表 3 中國農民政治信任變化 14
表 4 三種探究典範 32
表 5 變項界定和測量 41
表 6 民眾對中央政府的信任狀況 46
表 7 民眾對地方政府的信任狀況 47
表 8 四種政治信任類型之分佈狀況 49
表 9 差序政府信任分佈狀況 49
表 10 變項因素分析 50
表 11 各變項之描述性統計 53
表 12 國家經濟狀況評估的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 56
表 13 人均生產總值的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 56
表 14 家庭經濟狀況評估的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 57
表 15 生活滿意度的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 57
表 16 中央政府表現評估的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 58
表 17 地方政府表現評估的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 58
表 18 民族驕傲感與差序政府信任的交叉分析 59
表 19 政體支持度的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 60
表 20 政體滿意度的單因子變異數分析─差序政府信任的比較 60
表 21 相信中央政府的良善與差序政府信任的交叉分析 61
表 22 政治興趣與差序政府信任的交叉分析 61
表 23 多樣差序政府信任之多項式羅吉斯迴歸模型一 64
表 24 多樣差序政府信任之多項式羅吉斯迴歸模型二 66
表 25 多樣差序政府信任之多項式羅吉斯迴歸模型三和四 69
表 26 研究假設與發現之比較 81

圖 1 研究架構圖 35
圖 2 對中央和地方政府的信任之比較 48
壹、中文
一、專書
于建嶸(2010)。《抗爭性政治:中國政治社會學基本問題》。北京:人民出版社。
二、期刊論文
呂書鵬(2015)。〈差序政府信任:概念、現狀及成因─基於三次全國調查資料的實證研究〉,《學海》4:148-157。
呂書鵬、肖庸鏢(2015)。〈政府績效評價層級差異與差序政府信任─基於2011年全國調查資料的實證研究〉,《北京行政學院學報》1:29-38。
李連江(2012)。〈差序政府信任〉,《二十一世紀》13(1):108-114。
肖唐鏢(2005) 。〈從農民心態看農村政治穩定狀況—一個分析框架及其應用〉,《華中師範大學學報》44(5):10-17。
肖唐鏢、王欣(2010)。〈中國農民政治信任的變遷——對五省份60個村的跟蹤研究(1999—2008)〉,《管理世界》9:88-94。
胡榮(2007)。〈農民上訪與政治信任的流失〉,《社會學研究》3:39-56。
張厚安、蒙桂蘭(1993)。〈完善村民委員會的民主選舉制度推進農村政治穩定與發展─湖北省廣水市村民委員會換屆選舉調查〉,《社會主義研究》4:38-42。
盛治仁(2003)。〈台灣民眾民主價值及政治信任感研究─政黨輪替前後的比較〉,《選舉研究》10(1):115-169。
陳陸輝(2006)。〈政治信任的政治後果─以2004年立法委員選舉為例〉,《台灣民主季刊》2:39-62。
陳陸輝、陳映男(2012)。〈寧信地方,不信中央—政治信任的類型及其政治後果〉,《社會科學論叢》6(1):15-58。
黃信豪(2011)。〈民主態度的類型:台灣民眾二次政黨輪替後的分析〉,《選舉研究》18(1):1-34。
黃信豪(2014)。〈解釋中國社會差序政府信任:體制形塑與績效認知的視角〉,《政治科學論叢》59:55-90。
管玥(2012)。〈政治信任的層級差異及其解釋:一項基於大學生群體的研究〉,《公共行政評論》2:67-99。
三、網路資料
新唐人(2017)。〈投書:全國訪民聯名致習近平的九大建議報告〉。http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/b5/2017/03/06/a1314592.html。2017/06/22檢索。

貳、英文
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