臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

運輸系統的建設與營運在一段時間後可能反饋於區域發展，並進一步衍生為場站和其周邊土地使用之間複雜的動態互動過程。然而，此一過程在現行運輸規劃中卻少有討論或相當程度地簡化。是以，本研究試圖探究軌道系統與區域發展在時空交互影響之下的動態關聯，並提出一兩階段計量經濟模型分析架構，分別採用考量變數內生性的聯立方程模型與捕捉區域異質性的追蹤資料分析進行實證分析。
本研究針對臺灣高速鐵路系統中位於郊區，且未與市中心傳統鐵路車站共構的五個站進行分析，期望捕捉軌道系統與區域發展互動的時間延滯效應，並同時界定出各場站的影響範圍。根據所估計的計量模型，本研究提出的三個理論假說經實證分析均成立，包含：(1)軌道系統與區域發展形成一正向互動關係；(2)互動中存在時間延滯效應；(3)各站之間的影響範圍存在差異，且可能跨越縣市界線。對於軌道系統與區域發展之動態互動過程，相較於過去研究的概念性敘述，本研究除了建構一計量分析架構以衡量此互動關係，並同時界定出各高速鐵路場站對於周遭的影響範圍。據此，後續臺灣高速鐵路之運量評估修正及相關車站特定區開發情況分析可基於本研究結果所顯示之軌道系統與區域發展動態互動關聯做更深入的探討。

This research seeks to explore the dynamics of spatiotemporal interactions between a high-speed rail project and the surrounding land-use patterns for high-speed railway stations, which is often lack of considering dynamics between the stations and surrounding areas. Thereby, it may provide insights into ridership forecasting and even regional development. An integrated framework is proposed to analyze the dynamic process of transportation-land-use evolution which involves spatiotemporal interactions in two-stage research, where a simultaneous equation model and a panel data analysis model are developed, respectively.
This study focus on the five Taiwan High-Speed Railway (THSR) stations located in suburban areas and try to capture spatiotemporal interactions with time-lagged effects and delimit influence scope for each station. Based on the results of model estimation, three hypotheses are verified: (i) the interactions between THSR facilities and regional development form a positive cycle; (ii) the time lag effects associated with the interactions exist; and (iii) the influence scope of a THSR station varies across different stations and can exceed the boundary of the associated city or county.
The research findings highlight the spatiotemporal dynamics of interactions between high-speed rail facilities and regional development and provide insights into THSR ridership forecasting and the relevant application contexts for urban planning.

口試委員會審定書 i
致謝 ii
摘要 iii
ABSTRACT iv
TABEL OF CONTENT v
LIST OF FIGURES viii
LIST OF TABLES ix
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Objective 4
1.3 Thesis Organization 5
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1 Travel Demand Forecasting 7
2.2 Regional Development Evaluation 8
2.2.1 Population and employment 9
2.2.2 Property price 9
2.3 Interaction between Transportation and Land-Use 10
2.3.1 Land-use pattern change 13
2.3.2 Accessibility 14
2.4 Summary of Literature Review 16
CHAPTER 3 METHODOGIES AND MODELING APPROACHES 19
3.1 Problem Statement 19
3.2 Conceptual Framework 22
3.2.1 Stage 1 - Research on interaction between THSR system and regional development 23
3.2.2 Stage 2 - Research on influence scopes of THSR stations 25
3.3 Research Design 27
3.4 Hypothesis 28
3.5 Methodology 29
3.5.1 Multiple regression model 29
3.5.2 Simultaneous equation model 31
3.5.3 Panel data analysis 32
CHAPTER 4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND RESULT ANALYSIS 35
4.1 Stage 1 - Research on Interaction between THSR System and Regional Development 35
4.1.1 Research scope 36
4.1.2 Data description and descriptive statistics 37
4.1.3 Correlation analysis 42
4.1.4 Model estimation 46
4.1.5 Discussion on Stage 1 56
4.2 Stage 2 - Research on Influence Scopes of THSR Stations 63
4.2.1 Research scope 63
4.2.2 Data description 63
4.2.3 Model estimation 66
4.2.4 Discussion on Stage 2 79
4.3 Summary of Findings 81
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK 85
5.1 Summary of Research Contributions 85
5.2 Limitations 86
5.3 Future Work 87
REFERENCE 89
APPENDIX 94

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