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研究生:盧秉謙
研究生(外文):Ping-Chien Lu
論文名稱:民主意識與兩岸經貿:臺灣民眾貿易態度的分析
論文名稱(外文):Individual Preferences over Cross-strait Trade in Taiwan: The Impact of Democratic Values
指導教授:張佑宗張佑宗引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yu-tzung Chang
口試委員:黃旻華吳文欽
口試委員(外文):Min-Hua HuangWen-Chin Wu
口試日期:2016-07-20
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:101
中文關鍵詞:兩岸貿易態度自由貿易態度民主意識經濟自利符號政治
外文關鍵詞:Individual Preferences over Cross-strait TradeIndividual Preferences over Free TradeDemocratic ValuesSelf-interestSymbolic Politics
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本文的研究問題為,臺灣民眾為何會反對兩岸經貿?本文嘗試納入過去文獻所忽略的重要因素──臺灣民眾的民主意識,作為主要的解釋變項。本文認為,民主意識程度較高的民眾,在思考與兩岸經貿的議題時,由於中國大陸「威權政體」符號的作用,會比較容易產生負面的印象、喚起負面的訊息,因此根據符號政治途徑的解釋,會傾向反對兩岸經貿。除此之外,本文亦檢驗經濟自利途徑變數(如就業產業、技術能力、主觀經濟評估等)及符號政治途徑變數(國家優越感及光榮感、國家主權意識、文化保護意識、國族認同、統獨立場、政黨偏好、臺灣意識等)對於臺灣民眾兩岸經貿態度的影響。
為了驗證上述變數的作用,本文利用臺灣社會變遷基本調查6期4次國家認同組問卷進行統計分析。研究結果顯示,民主意識程度越高的民眾,的確越有可能反對兩岸經貿。此外,無論經濟自利變數還是符號政治變數都可以解釋臺灣民眾為何會反對兩岸經貿。最後,本文也發現民主意識是那些不反對自由貿易的民眾,之所以會反對兩岸經貿的獨特原因。
Why do some Taiwanese people disagree with the government on the trade policy with China? Do someone’s democratic values make an impact on his or her opinion about the trade issue with China? To answer this question, there are two main research approaches that we can adopt, i.e. “Self-Interest Approach” and “Symbolic Politics Approach”. From the viewpoint of the self-interest approach, people support the policy which might benefit them and oppose the policy which might hurt them.
On the other hand, from the viewpoint of the symbolic politics approach, people support the policy because the image of that policy acts in accordance with their long-term political identity.
On the basis of symbolic politics approach, my hypothesis is that those who have greater democratic values are more likely to disagree the policy of expanding the trade relationship with China. To examine the hypothesis, I use the survey data of Taiwan Social Change Survey (survey year: 2013, 6 round 4th year, survey topic: national identity).
The result shows that Taiwanese people who have greater democratic values do have a greater probability of disagreeing on expanding trade relationship with China. Moreover, this article shows that both self-interest approach and symbolic politics approach can explain the differences in individual preferences over cross-strait trade policy. In conclusion, those who have a positive view on free trade but a negative view on cross-strait trade tend to have greater democratic values. Based on these observations, we could say that when talking about trade issues with China, Taiwanese people care not only the profitability but also the democratic performance of China.
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻探討 7
壹、探討民眾政策態度形成的兩大研究途徑 7
貳、影響民眾對自由貿易態度的因素 8
參、影響臺灣民眾對兩岸經貿態度的因素 14
肆、本文觀點 15
第三章 理論假設 19
第四章 研究設計 25
壹、資料來源 25
貳、變數測量 25
參、分析模型 34
第五章 分析結果與討論 41
壹、臺灣民眾兩岸經貿態度初探 41
貳、民主意識與兩岸經貿態度 51
參、兩岸經貿與自由貿易態度之比較 63
肆、反對兩岸經貿的獨特因素 71
第六章 結論 77
參考文獻 79
附錄一 變數編碼方式一覽表 85
附錄二 職位編碼方式一覽表 87
附錄三 RCA指數 89
附錄四 以IRT測量之變數的選用題項 92
附錄五 使用IRT測量之變數的單向度檢驗 95
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黃旻華,2006,〈態度量表的心理計量學分析:2003年TEDS統獨態度量表的研究〉,《選舉研究》,13(1): 43-86。
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黃紀、王德育,2012,《質變數與受限依變數的迴歸分析》,台北:五南。
劉大年、盧鈺雯、許茵爾,2014,〈全球區域經濟整合與臺灣〉,陳添枝、劉大年(編),《由 ECFA 到 TPP:臺灣區域經濟整合之路》,台北:兩岸交流遠景基金會,頁5-32。
劉長萱,2012,〈古典測量理論〉,瞿海源、畢恆達、劉長萱、楊國樞(編),《社會及行為科學研究法(一)總論與量化研究法》,台北:東華書局,頁303-334。
劉碧珍、陳添枝、翁永和,2007,《國際貿易導論》,台北:雙葉書廊。
盧其宏、江淳芳、劉錦添,2014,〈臺灣民眾對貿易自由化的態度分析〉,「臺灣妳好嗎?國家、市場與公民社會的再形構」臺灣社會學年會暨科技部社會學門成果發表會(12月6日),新竹:國立清華大學人文社會學院。
謝復生,2013,《實證政治理論》,台北:五南。

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