臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文在驅動理論(Drive Theory)及自我定向理論(Self-Focus Theory)假設之下，以美國大聯盟1925 年起之總冠軍系列賽資料，實證進行負向觀眾聲援效果的存在性，並以此佐證運動心理學上對於主場關鍵時刻劣勢(Home Choke)的爭論與結果。
由總冠軍系列賽長度分配的差距出發，著重討論第六戰中趨使落後球隊追平的緣由，透過迴歸模型，為負向觀眾效果這項已由實驗證明，但在運動心理學實證上始終爭論不休的議題，提出有力的看法。
有別於大多數使用 Logit 模型處理比賽勝負的作法，使用得失分差代替單純的勝負結果，利用季賽勝率、投手自責分率、總冠軍經驗、場次壓力虛擬變數、場次觀眾影響虛擬變數…等，來預估比賽的勝負分差；另以比賽球隊距離，控制觀眾影響的存在。
結果顯示在第六戰的特定壓力下，領先主場球隊會因為觀眾聲援而產生表現下降的現象，但落後主場球隊亦因觀眾聲援伴隨表現上升的現象，兩相抵消之下，解釋了僅從主客場比賽勝率較難以辨明主場關鍵時刻劣勢的存在。

This research was under the assumptions of “Drive Theory” and “Self-focus Theory”, conducting an empirical research on home team disadvantage due to the existence of supportive audience. Using the data based on 1925-2016 MLB world-series with OLS regression instead of logic model, to predict each game’s lose points.
To focus on the audience effect, the below factors were set as control variables including wining-percentage in regular season, starting pitcher’s ERA in regular season, team experience for world-series, and dummy variable of pressure differences among games. Furthermore, define the existence of audience effect by distance between two teams.
This research proved the assumption of home team disadvantage due to the pressure from supportive audience in the 6th game in MLB’s world-series. A leading home team with just one more games to win suffered worse performance due to pressure from supportive audience.

1 緒論 1
2 文獻回顧 3
2.1 經濟分析 . ............................3
2.2 心理分析 . ............................4
3 研究方法 5
3.1 勝負預測 . ............................5
3.2 觀眾效果 . ............................7
3.3 估計模型 . ............................9
3.4 變數定義與說明 . .........................10
3.4.1 得失分差：y .......................10
3.4.2 球隊強弱：team.difference ................10
3.4.3 壓力虛擬變數：pressure .................11
3.4.4 聲援效果虛擬變數：audience ..............13
3.4.5 指定打擊規則虛擬變數：designated-hitter (Z).....14
3.4.6 氣勢虛擬變數：momentum(Z).............15
4 資料分析 16
4.1 資料來源 . ............................16
4.2 資料修訂 . ............................16
4.2.1 同城/非同城球隊 . . ...................16
4.2.2 指定打擊規則 . ......................20
4.2.3 場地熟悉度 . .......................20
4.2.4 季賽勝率 . ........................21
4.2.5 勝負場數相關變數 . ...................21
5 實證結果 24
5.1 考量觀眾聲援效果之估計結果 . .................24
5.2 穩健性測試 . ...........................29
5.3 Home Choke...........................30
6 結論 33

References
[1] B. Dean (2007),”Are Seven-Game Baseball Playoffs Fairer Than Five-Game Series When Home-Field Advantage Is Considered?”,
arXiv:math/0701651 [math.HO]
[2] A.E.CassutoandF.Lowenthal(2007),”The Economics Of The Duration Of The Baseball World Series”, College Teaching Methods Styles Journal, 3(1)
[3] C.FerrallandA.A.Smith(2006),”A Sequential Game Model of Sports Championship Series: Theory and Estimation”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4),704-719
[4] W.LevernierandA.Barilla(2007),”An Analysis of the Home-Field Advantage in Major League Baseball Using Logit Models: Evidence from the 2004 and 2005 Seasons”, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 3(1),1-22
[5] R.F.BaumeisterandA.Steinhilber(1984),”Paradoxical Effects of Supportive Audiences on Performance Under Pressure: The Home Field Disadvantage in Sports Championships”, Journal of Personally and Social Psychology, 47(1),85-93
[6] D.BarryandJ.A.Hartigan(1993),”Choice Models for Predicting Divisional Winners in Major League Baseball”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423),766-774
[7] W.H.DareandS.S.MacDonald(1996),”Generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets”,Journal of Financial Economics, 40,295-318
[8] TLUrban(2012),”The existence of serial correlation and its effect on the format of a championship playoff series”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 63,883–889
[9] Y. Hanin, G.Tenenbaum(2002),”Individual Zone of Optimal Functioning (IZOF):A Probabilistic Estimation”, Journal of Sport Exercise Psychology, 24,189-208
[10] A.Legaz-Arrese,D.Moliner-UrdialesandD.Munguía-Izquierdo(2013), ”Home Advantage and Sports Performance:Evidence, Causes and Psychological Implications”, Universitas Psychologica, ,12(3),933-943
[11] J.L.Butler,R.EBaumeister(1998),”The Trouble With Friendly Faces: Skilled Performance With a Supportive Audience”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75(5),1213-1230 [12] S.E.Taylor,T.E.Seeman,N.I.Eisenberger,T.A.Kozanian,A.N.
MooreandW.G.Moons(2010),”Effects of a Supportive or an Unsupportive Audienceon Biologicaland Psychological Responses to Stress”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 98(1),47–56 [13] R.C.Jackson1,K.J.AshfordandG.Norsworthy(2006),”Attentional Focus, Dispositional Reinvestment,and Skilled Motor Performance Under Pressure”, Journal of Sport Exercise Psychology, 28(1),49-68 [14] B.R.Schlenker,S.T.Phillips,K.A.BonieckiandD.R.Schlenker
(1995), ”Championship Pressures:Choking or Triumphing in One’s Own Territory?”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(4), 632-643
[15] J.M.Tauer,C.L.GuentherandC.ROZEK(2009),”Is There a Home Choke in Decisive Playoff Basketball Games?”, Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 21,148–162
[16] R.F.Baumeister(1995),”Disputing the effects of championshi ppressures and home audiences”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(4),644-648