臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

赫拉克利特：「沒有一個人在同一條河裡走過兩次」。萬物瞬息萬變，土地利用土地覆蓋變遷不斷，其演變影響著生態系統以及人類福祉。人類從生態系統所獲得的諸多益處被稱為生態系統服務，其中包含氮磷營養鹽、出水量、沉積物以及炭儲存等等，同時生態系統也提供生物多樣性。在台灣，土地利用變遷是探討生態系統服務暨生物多樣性不容忽視的重要因素。因此，本研究採用由1999年至2005年的六個時間點上研究區域的景觀、氣候、地理等資料，並分析其在生態系統服務暨生物多樣性變化上造成的影響。系統景觀保護規劃法，Systematic Landscape conservation planning (SLCP)，被運用於陳有蘭溪流域的生態景觀規劃模擬，藉由探討景觀結構、生態系統服務和生物多樣性以及人類福祉間的相互關係，以進行景觀保護政策的規劃。在研究當中，藉由InVEST模式模擬研究區域內生態系統服務暨生物多樣性，並進行LISA空間熱點分析，以期模擬並規劃保育地區。研究中規劃了六種不同的保育區劃設方式，運用SLCP來找尋最佳之保育方案，藉由不同保育情境下的近未來模擬結果，來分析適合實施的政策規劃。
首先情境B以六個時間點的歷史資料所模擬的生態系統服務暨生物多樣性熱點分布結果，進行生態系統敏感地區分析，並將敏感地區與玉山國家公園共同作為保育區域；情境C、D分別在玉山國家公園之外保育了最早的歷史時間點時營養鹽以及生物多樣性的熱點分布區域；而情境E、F將六個時間點所模擬的熱點分析結果帶入Zonation空間分布統計，取其重要區域並聯集玉山國家公園做為保育區；情境A作為對照組則單以玉山國家公園作為保育對象。研究中以土地利用變遷模式模擬CLUE-S各情境未來之土地利用狀況，並且以CLUE-S的未來土地利用模擬結果作為InVEST模式的輸入，以計算在不同情境的保育規劃下，生態系統服務暨生物多樣性的保育成果。
為分析比較不同保育情境下，生態系統服務暨生物多樣性的差異，我們以InVEST的模擬結果進行LISA熱點分析，並利用KAPPA來比較不同情境的熱點和最早的歷史時間點熱點分布的變化程度。藉此，研究發現6個情境中，我們所設計的情境B、D、E、F效果皆優於單純以玉山國家公園作為保育區的情境A和除了玉山國家公園外，同時保育了最早的歷史時間點時生物多樣性的熱點分布區域的情境C。由此結果可判斷不同情境的優劣，在達到系統景觀保護規劃法之目的的同時，此一方法也可運用於其他集水區，並可將保育區模擬的結果作為相關單位規劃保育政策的參考。

Heraclitus said that “no man ever steps in the same river twice.” Everything continues to change. Land use change will keep redefine itself and subject the Earth and humankind to collateral changes. Humankind benefits from ecosystem in many ways. The ecosystem provides people with nutrients, enriches soil with sediment, and sustains all living organisms with water; these benefits are known as ecosystem services. In Taiwan, land use change has impacted ecosystem and biodiversity on various levels. Thus, we took six land use scenarios from 1999 to 2005 in Chen Youlan river watershed as our case study, intending to observe the course of ecosystem and biodiversity changes and the cause of it. Systematic Landscape conservation planning (SLCP) framework can be adopted when designing land use policy to safeguard human interests and ecosystem. This study use SLCP to develop ecosystem services and biodiversity protection strategies. Several strategies were designed by using 1999 to 2005 data as provision to protect the intactness of future ecosystem services and biodiversity. This research explores the potential and possible impacts of different land use protection strategies in the future.
It is possible to identify the conservation priority of a certain region by using the Zonation meta-algorithm. This study selects the zonation critical protection area (Joint set of Yushan National Park) as strategy E and F. Strategy A takes Yushan National Park as a protected area; unstable hot spots in 1999/03 (Joint set of Yushan National Park) are selected as strategy B. In strategy C ,the biodiversity hotspots area are selected as protected area (Joint set of Yushan National Park)；In strategy D, the nutrients hotspots area are selected as protected area (Joint set of Yushan National Park).CLUE-S was used to simulate the landuse map in future in different strategies. The research put result of CLUE-S into InVEST model to simulate the ecosystem services and biodiversity change.
Next, we used LISA and Kappa statistical method to find the minimal ecosystem services change and biodiversity hotspots change of the six aforementioned strategies and compared with those from 1999/03. By the Kappa statistical method, we further prioritized the important conservation areas by strategy C, D, E and F in the future.
The results can not only serve as management reference for government agencies, but also develop an ideal trajectory of policy making as well as human-nature dynamics, leading to a sustainable future. We do not have to be subject to changes passively, instead, we can evolve ourselves and actively initiate the evolutionary path towards sustainable coexistence with nature.

第一章 前言 1
1.1 研究緣起 1
1.2 研究目的 1
1.3 研究流程 2
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 生態系統服務 5
2.2 生態系統服務量化 6
2.3 土地利用土地覆蓋變遷與模擬 8
2.4 土地利用改變對生態系統之衝擊 10
2.5 區域空間相關量測指標熱點分析 12
2.6 系統性保育規劃 13
2.7 系統性保育規畫決策工具模式 16
2.8 保育規劃應用於生態系統服務 17
第三章 研究方法 20
3.1 研究區域 20
3.2 系統景觀保護規劃法(Systematic Landscape conservation planning，SLCP) 22
3.3 生態系統服務暨生物多樣性評估模式(InVEST) 24
3.4 空間自相關分析方法(LISA) 34
3.5 系統性保育規劃模式(Zonation) 35
3.6 土地利用模式(CLUE-S) 38
3.6.1土地利用模擬情境設定 42
第四章 結果與討論 50
4.1 現況生態系統服務模擬與系統性保育區規劃分析 50
4.2 土地利用改變情境設定與分析 73
4.3 土地利用變遷對生態系統服務模擬影響 80
第五章 結論與建議 93
5.1 結論 93
5.2 建議 94
參考文獻 96

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