臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以空間擴增引力模型為應用，探討影響全球旅遊的服務貿易出口因素。資料採用世界銀行 (The World Bank) 及國際貿易中心 (International Trade Centre, ITC) 自2005年到2014年的縱橫資料。解釋變數包含GDP、距離、市場潛力、實質匯率、顯示性比較優勢指數、服務業佔GDP比例、人均GDP、基礎建設指標，以及虛擬變數的金融海嘯與共同語言。同時，本研究利用BP-LM Test、Hausman Test及Over-Identification Test of the Hausman Taylor Model (HTM) 篩選適切的實證模型。
實證結果顯示，旅遊服務業出口存在夥伴國市場效應，表示夥伴國藉由提升經濟實力與環境，便能持續擴張旅遊服務出口。雖科技進步日新月異，地理距離仍是旅遊服務業貿易出口的障礙。對於母國與夥伴國來說，人均GDP的增加皆有助於提升旅遊服務業的出口，顯示出國民的收入高低與旅遊息息相關。另一方面，顯示性比較優勢指數也是母國與夥伴國皆具有顯著影響，表示所選的36個國家，確實在旅遊方面皆具有其優勢存在，足以代表整體旅遊服務業的概況。母國在服務業佔GDP比例部分有明顯的影響，表示母國經濟以服務業為主的結構對於旅遊服務業的增長是有正面幫助的。夥伴國的旅遊服務業出口則是具有明顯的市場潛力，可知夥伴國未來在旅遊服務業將扮演越來越重要的角色。而實質匯率與基礎建設指標則是對於旅遊出口有負面的影響，此與過去大部分的研究結果不同，顯示出一些影響短期與長期的效果不同和近年來旅遊出口的轉變。最後，金融海嘯與共同語言皆有助於旅遊出口成長，前者導因於轉向價格較低的開發中國家旅遊；後者則是因為能降低旅遊時的成本。

This study investigates the determinants of exports of travel services by utilizing a spatial augmented gravity model with data for 36 major exporting countries covering the period from 2005 to 2014. The empirical results of the FEM and Hausman-Taylor Model (HTM) are summarized as follows.
The empirical results related to GDP are emerged the same coefficients, and that indicates that economic development, condition and structure are the basic but critical determinates in travel services. First, the host countries’ GDPs have a significant positive impact on the exports of travel services. This means that the host countries could expand their exports of travel services by strengthening their economic performance and conditions. Secondly, for both the home and the host countries, per capita GDP is an important determinant of exports of travel services, implying that the income of the home and the host countries significantly influences the willingness to travel. Third, in addition, there is a significant positive relationship between the services in the GDP of the home country and the exports of travel services. This reveals that the economic structure of the home country is dominated by services, and that is helpful in terms of expanding its exports of travel services. Fourth, although the technology has been dramatically improved in recent decades, the geographical distance is still a barrier to travel services. Fifth, the revealed comparative advantage also has an obviously positive impact on the exports of travel services. This indicates that all of the sample countries indeed have a comparative advantage in travel services, so that they could represent the overall situation of travel services in the world. Sixth, the market potential positively affects the exports of travel services, pointing out that the host country will play a more and more critical role in travel services. Seventh, the results of the real exchange rate and the infrastructure are contrary to a number of studies, demonstrating that the effect of exports of travel services should be considered in the long-term. Finally, the financial crisis and a common language have a significantly positive impact on the exports of travel services. This reveals that people became more willing to travel to developing countries following the financial crisis, due to being affected by the cost of travel.

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Objectives 4
1.3 Research Framework 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 8
Chapter 3 Methodology 13
3.1 Sample Description 13
3.2 Description of the Variables 18
3.3 Empirical Model 34
3.4 Methods of Empirical Model Selection 37
Chapter 4 Empirical Findings 40
4.1 Testing for Multicollinearity 40
4.2 Empirical Model Selection 45
4.3 Empirical Results for Travel Services 47
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 52
References 56

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