臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要探討對象為美國入選Institutional Investor(II) All-Star的分析師，以及分析師預測的公司為主體，透過IBES和CRSP資料庫取得盈餘預測的樣本，期間為2008年至2015年。探討All-Star頂尖分析師的盈餘預測品質是否與性別有關，並加入分析師發佈盈餘預測宣告日與公司實際盈餘宣告日的日期差距、分析師排名、金融機構聲譽、產業類別，以及公司市值等變數深入探討。期望本篇研究讓投資者更加清楚分析師業務能力上存在的性別差異，同時有助於男、女性分析師提高自我認同感與參與職業競爭的積極性，投資大眾和法人也可參考相關依據訂定投資策略。
本研究實證結果發現，從分析師盈餘預測偏誤的中位數趨勢圖中可得，女性分析師的盈餘預測偏誤趨勢線大部分週數都在男性分析師的趨勢線之下，由此可得知女性分析師的盈餘預測偏誤大部分時候低於男性分析師的盈餘預測偏誤。從分析師盈餘預測精準度的中位數趨勢圖則顯示，女性分析師的盈餘預測精準度在大部分的時候比男性分析師還高。隨著盈餘截止日的的到來，趨勢線呈現向下的趨勢，代表盈餘預測的準確度上升且漸趨保守，截止日之後便又漸漸向上攀升，盈餘預測的準確度下降且轉為樂觀。
本研究實證結果發現，迴歸模型四為顯著正相關，此迴歸表示女性分析師的預測較不準確，偏誤較高，與趨勢圖的結果相符。因此，投資人若僅針對財報數據上做分析，則分析師盈餘預測的偏誤和準確度則可參考模型四，以權益帳面價值為分母的盈餘預測偏誤與精準度的估計方法。

This study focuses on the US-based Institutional Investor (II) All-Star analysts forecast earnings, and also through the IBES and CRSP databases, sampling from 2008 to 2015. To explore whether All-Star's top analysts genders are related to analyst's earnings forecast bias, we add announcement date, company's actual earnings announcement date, analyst ranking, financial institution reputation, industry category, and corporate market value as variables. It is expected that this study will allow investors to understand more about the gender differences in the ability of analysts, and helping male and female analysts to improve self-identity and participation in professional competition. Investors can also refer to the relevant results then apply to their investment strategy.
The empirical results of this study shows that the female's median trend of analyst's earnings forecast bias is mostly below the trend line of the male analyst which imply that female analysts earnings forecast bias is lower than males. The median trend of forecast accuracy shows that female analysts' earnings forecast has higher accuracy than male analysts. With the arrival of the forecast period end date, the trend line shows a downward trend, which indicates that the earnings forecast accuracy rise and gradually become more conservative. After the forecast period end date, it will then gradually climb up, and the accuracy of earnings forecast decline and be more optimistic.
The regression model 4 shows that there is a significant positive correlation between gender and earnings forecast accuracy. The result imply that female analysts earnings forecast is less accuracy and with higher bias, which is consistent with the results of the median trend. Therefore, if investors are resort to financial statement analysis, then it would be possible to apply this model for references.

摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 III
目 錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VII
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 動機 1
第二節 研究目的和意涵 2
第三節 研究流程 2
第貳章 文獻探討 4
第一節 性別差異 4
第二節 盈餘預測偏誤 7
第參章 研究方法論 9
第一節 研究樣本與資料來源 9
一、樣本期間與資料來源 9
二、資料庫合併 10
三、樣本選取說明 11
第二節 盈餘預測偏誤之定義與估計方法 12
第三節 回歸模型介紹與估計方法 13
第肆章 實證結果分析 16
第一節 變數敘述性統計分析 16
第二節 盈餘預測偏誤趨勢分析 18
一、盈餘預測品質敘述統計 18
二、盈餘預測偏誤與精準度趨勢分析 26
第三節 迴歸分析 33
第伍章 結論與建議 39
第一節 研究結論 39
第二節 研究建議 42
參考文獻 43

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