臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近幾年來，政府推出許多重劃區及大型造鎮計劃，使得建設公司有較多的機會可以取得大面積土地以進行分期開發。然而，在評估分期開發專案時，傳統評估方法大多將分期開發專案視為個別之專案分別進行評估，因此往往會忽略掉前後期實質選擇權間之交互作用影響。有鑑於此，本研究首先考量建設公司按照期初對於分期開發專案初步規劃開發各期專案的情況下，將建築投資分期開發各期專案視為一個整體之專案，以複合選擇權之概念將前後期之實質選擇權結合，建構建築投資分期開發專案之基本評估模式。
最後，考量在各期之決策時間點上，建設公司可以依據當時之市場狀況、政府政策等因素，延遲或是放棄該期開發專案時，基本評估模式該如何做調整以計算出建設公司在採取彈性的開發策略下，分期開發專案效益值以及前後期交互作用影響之價值，以做為建設公司在規劃分期開發策略時之參考依據。

Recently, construction companies have more opportunities to obtain large-scale land for phased development because of the government policy. However, most of the traditional evaluating method of phased development project values each stage individual and ignores the interaction values among the real options in the project. Therefore, this study is based on the concept of compound options, and regards each development stage as one completed phased development project to combine the options values embedded in the phased development project. First, this study proposes a general model to evaluate the situation that construction company follows the initial project planning which is set at the beginning. Then, consider the construction companies have the rights to defer or abandon the project at each stage based on the new arrivals information such as market condition and government policy, etc. The general model that this study proposed needs to be adjusted on the basic of flexible strategy that construction companies made. As a result, this study evaluates the value of the phased development project and the interaction among the real options correctly to let the construction companies establish a better phased development strategy.

第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機
1.2 研究目的與內容
1.3 研究流程與方法
1.4 論文章節介紹
第二章 文獻回顧
2.1 建築投資分期開發專案
2.2 實質選擇權
2.2.1 淨現值法與實質選擇權
2.2.2 實質選擇權理論
2.2.3 實質選擇權評價模式
2.3 複合選擇權
2.3.1 複合選擇權理論
2.3.2 實質選擇權交互作用影響
2.3.3 對數轉換二項式模式
2.4 相關文獻探討
2.4.1 建築投資分期開發相關文獻
2.4.2 複合選擇權相關文獻
2.4.3 複合選擇權於建築投資分期開發相關文獻
2.5 小結
第三章 建築投資分期開發初步模式之建構
3.1 建築投資分期開發決策特性
3.2 模式建構概念與程序
3.3 兩期開發價值基本模式建立
3.3.1 個別選擇權之求解
3.3.2 複合選擇權之求解
第四章 基本評估模式之延伸
4.1 基本評估模式之調整
4.1.1 延遲選擇權之調整
4.1.2 放棄選擇權之調整
4.2 多期開發之評估模式
4.3 模式應用說明及參數設定
第五章 案例分析
5.1 專案基地基本資料
5.1.1 專案簡介
5.1.2 專案法規檢討
5.1.3 專案財務計畫說明
5.2 模式參數分析
5.3 模式之應用與結果分析
5.3.1 淨現值法
5.3.2 一次性開發效益
5.3.3 基本評估模式之應用
5.3.4 基本評估模式彈性調整
5.4 敏感度分析
第六章 結論與建議
6.1 結論
6.2 建議
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