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研究生:侯秀玉
研究生(外文):Hsiu-Yu Hou
論文名稱:台商投資大陸財務操作獲利之研析:以人民幣匯率機制改革的觀點
論文名稱(外文):A Study on Firm of Taiwan Invest in China Profit Gain Model Returns on Assets: Insight From RMB Reform Perspectives
指導教授:李命志李命志引用關係黃健銘黃健銘引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ming-Chih LeeChien-Ming Hua
口試委員:吳佩珊洪瑞成李命志
口試日期:2017-06-18
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系碩士在職專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2017
畢業學年度:105
語文別:中文
論文頁數:50
中文關鍵詞:人民幣匯率機制改革財務槓桿操作避險操作策略
外文關鍵詞:Reform of RMB Exchange Rate MechanismFinancial LeverageHedging
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本研究主要以赴陸投資的台商企業作為研究標的,探討2005年至2016年間資本結構變化,對於資產報酬率的影響,同時導入2005年至2016年人民幣匯率機制改革前、後匯率風險干擾因子對資產報酬率,針對不同波動性程度實證分析兩者變化之關聯性影響。實證結果發現在控制其他可能影響資本結構決定的因素後,資本結構變化及人民幣匯率變動對資產報酬率具有顯著相關性,顯示台灣廠商投資兩岸三地,利用美元、人民幣、新台幣間借、存款互為應用之財務槓桿操作不僅能達成避險的目的,同時亦可賺取可觀的 easy money。
本文擬以人民幣匯率機制改革作為樣本,預期人民幣匯率機制改革前、後,財務槓桿操作對台商企業資產報酬率所產生不同的影響,推論人民幣匯率機制改革後波動幅度加大,將造成廠商交易意願改變、匯率風險加劇及避險成本提高,進而改變公司管理當局與投資人預期報酬降低等現象,藉由本研究分析結果將可提供公司及投資人未來在考量匯率及利率波動度風險時,應如何進行全面性的避險操作策略。
This essay focuses on the investment of Taiwanese enterprises as the subject of research, to explore the capital structure change from 2005 to 2016, the impact on the return on assets , and import the 2005-2016 RMB exchange rate mechanism before and after the reform. The Impact of exchange rate risk interference factor on the relevance of return on assets and empirical analysis of different volatility. The empirical results show that the changes in capital structure and the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism have significant correlation with the return on assets and after the control of other factors that may affect the capital structure decision. It shows that the Taiwanese manufacturers invest in the China mainland use of financial leverage among RMB ,USD and NTD will not only achieve the goal of hedging, but also earn the easy money.
This paper intends to reform the RMB exchange rate mechanism as sample period, it is expected that before and after the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, the financial leverage operation will have different effects on the return on assets of the Taiwanese firms , and the volatility of the RMB exchange rate mechanism Increase, will result in changes in manufacturers'' willingness to trade, increased exchange rate risk and higher risk of hedging, and thus change the company management and investors expected to reduce the remuneration of the phenomenon, the results of this study will provide the company and investors in the future to consider the volatility risk of exchange rate and interest rate , to perform a comprehensive risk hedging strategy.
目錄
第一章 緒論..............................................1
第一節研究動機............................................1
第二節研究目的...........................................10
第三節研究架構與流程.....................................12
第二章 文獻探討.........................................15
第一節資本結構與公司績效關聯性...........................15
第二節匯率波動、自由現金流量對公司績效的影響.............18
第三節人民幣匯率機制改革歷程.............................20
第三章 研究方法 .........................................25
第一節變數定義...........................................25
第二節迴歸模型選取.......................................29
第三節實證模型的建構.....................................30
第四章 敘述性統計與實證結果分析.........................32
第一節資料來源與篩選標準.................................32
第二節敘述性統計.........................................35
第三節台灣地區2005年至2016年赴陸投資台商之三因子模型估計結果.......................................................37
第四節人民幣中心匯率幅度三次調整的估計結果...............39
第五節人民幣二次匯率機制改革的估計結果...................41
第五章 結論與建議.......................................43
參考文獻 .................................................46


圖目錄
【圖1】美國聯邦基金目標利率...............................4
【圖2】美元兌新台幣匯率及變動率...........................4
【圖3】臺灣、中國大陸、美國GDP成長率......................5
【圖4】中國人民銀行基準利率...............................6
【圖5】人民幣放款存款利差.................................8
【圖6】論文主要研究架構之流程圖..........................14
【圖7】美元兌人民幣匯率及變動率..........................24
表目錄
【表1】Fama and French 三因子模型投資組合分類表..........28
【表2】台灣對中國出/進口及美元兌人民幣匯率變動情形.......33
【表3】2005年到2016年敘述性統計..........................36
【表4】台灣地區2005年至2016年赴陸投資台商之三因子模型估計 結果.....................................................38
【表5】人民幣中心匯率幅度三次調整的估計結果..............40
【表6】人民幣二次匯率機制改革的估計結果..................42
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