本文根據Becker (1960) 家庭論中提到的機會成本概念做為依據，研究影響台灣生育率的主要因素。由於台灣個主要六都新生兒人口約佔台灣七成新人生兒總人口且相關資料亦較完整，因此研究範圍聚焦在六都。首先針對六都生育率進行ANOVA分析，得到無法拒絕六都生育率並無差異假設之結果；但緊接扶老比與生育率相關分析中，得到於台中、台南、高雄三都有著顯著負相關的結果，另房價中位數與生育率相關分析中，亦得到部分負相關之結果。最後，本文根據Becker所提影響生育率機會成本的概念，加入女性勞動參與率、失業率、扶老比、房價中位數、每戶薪資所得、六都虛擬變數與部份交叉項做為解釋變數，進行影響生育率的完整回歸分析。

Abstract： This article according to the opportunity cost concept which the Becker (1960) family discusses mentioned to do for the basis, the research affects the Taiwan fertility rate the primary factor. Because the Taiwan six main metropolis main newborn population approximately composes the Taiwan 70% new life total population also the correlation data is also complete, therefore research scope focusing in six metropolises. First aims at six metropolis fertility rate to carry on the ANOVA analysis, obtains result which is unable to resist, expresses six metropolis fertility rate no discrepancy opposite sexes; But follows closely holds always compared to and the fertility rate correlation analysis in, obtains in Taichung, Tainan, Gaoxiong three all has the remarkable inverse correlation result, in another house price median and the fertility rate correlation analysis, also obtains result of the partial inverse correlation. Finally, this article according to Becker to propose the influence fertility rate opportunity cost the concept, joins the female to work the participation rate, the unemployment rate, holds always compared to, the house price median, each household salary obtained, six metropolis hypothesized variables and the partial cross term does is the explanation variable, carries on the influence fertility rate the integrity regression analysis.

第一章 研究背景、研究目的與研究動機 1
第一節 緒論 1
第二節 研究背景、研究動機 1
第三節 研究目的 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第三章 模型架構 9
第一節 經濟模型描述 9
第二節 計量模型設定與資料變數說明 10
第三節 敘述統計比對 12
第四節 單因子變異數分析比對 13
第五節 相關係數分析 13
第四章 計量模型修改設定與實證結果 16
第一節 計量模型修改 16
第二節 實證結果分析 18
第五章 結論 22
第一節 結論 22
第二節 研究限制與建議 23
第六章 參考文獻 23

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