臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　在全球貿易自由化及為達成氣候公約之目標下，碳洩漏問題已受到國內外學者的廣泛關注與研究。本研究利用歐盟所編製之世界投入產出表 (World Input-Output Tables, WIOTs)，搭配多國投入產出模型，分析各國最終消費中之碳排放來源，以探討碳洩漏的變化情形。此外，本研究也在多國投入產出模型的架構下，進一步透過結構分解分析，探討各國於不同期間因最終消費導致的碳排放變化之關鍵因素為何，並將研究分析結果彙整政策建議，作為決策單位制定相關措施之參考。
　　研究結果顯示，各國最終消費的CO2排放以國內排放為主，占比達70%以上，透過貿易活動產生之碳洩漏則占約30%；至於在影響各國最終消費CO2含量變動之因素方面，主要為最終需求量的增加及產業生產技術的調整，雖然各產業的CO2排放強度普遍呈現下降，但最終需求量的擴大及產業生產技術未能即時作出調整，仍使一國最終消費中的燃燒CO2排放增加，因此，各國除了應全面提升能源使用效率及革新生產技術，也應在貿易政策上有相應的調整，以減少碳洩漏的發生。

Global trade liberalization and climate agreement have stimulated a wide range of researches on carbon leakage in recent years. This thesis applies the World Input-Output Tables (WIOTs) developed by the European Union, together with a multi-country input-output model, to calculate the CO2 embodied in the final demand of the countries covered in the tables and analyze the possible carbon leakages of each of them. Furthermore, we perform a structural decomposition analysis, also under the international inter-industry framework, to examine the factors responsible for the changes in the CO2 embodied in the final demand for two periods. Our results indicate that, on average, over 70% of the CO2 embodied in final demand is from domestic sources, foreign sources account for less than 30%. In addition, structural decomposition results reveal that the key factors contributing to the increase of the CO2 embodied in final demand are the increase of trade volume and the slow pace in technology change. While the intensities of CO2 emission have generally fallen in industries of most of the countries, for countries to effectively reduce the CO2 embodied in final demand from both domestic and foreign sources, improving energy efficiency, advancing production technology, and adjusting trade policies to export and import less carbon-emitting products will be the key strategies to follow.

摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究流程 3
第貳章　文獻回顧 5
第參章 研究方法與資料說明 8
第一節 投入產出模型 8
第二節 結構分解模型 13
第三節 資料來源 15
第肆章　實證結果 17
第一節 貿易隱含CO2排放流向 19
第二節 結構分解分析 33
第三節 政策意涵 48
第伍章 結論及建議 49
第一節 結論 49
第二節 研究建議 50
參考文獻 51
圖表附錄 56

表目錄
表1　多國投入產出表架構 (以3國為例) 10
表2　WIOT 國家明細(1995-2009年) 15
表3　WIOT 產業明細 (1995-2009年) 16
表4　台灣1995-2017年對外貿易金額累計排名表 18
表5　各國燃料燃燒CO2排放量占全球之比例排序表 20
表6 各國1995-2009年燃料燃燒CO2排放量 21
表7　各國最終消費需求中隱含之CO2排放來源 23
表8　各國1995-2009年DEDS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放比例表 28
表9　各國1995-2009年DEFS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放比例表 29
表10　各國1995-2009年FEDS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放比例表 31
表11　各國1995-2009年FEFS占一國總燃料燃燒CO2排放比例表 32
表12　燃料燃燒CO2排放流向之結構分解結果：台灣 36
表13　燃燒燃料CO2排放流向之結構分解結果：中國大陸 38
表14　燃燒燃料CO2流向之結構分解結果：美國 40
表15　燃燒燃料CO2流向之結構分解結果：日本 42
表16　燃燒燃料CO2流向之結構分解結果：韓國 45
表17　各國碳洩漏之結構分解結果 46
表17　各國碳洩漏之結構分解結果（續） 47
附表1　各國燃料燃燒CO2排放量 56
附表2　各國1995-2014年燃料燃燒CO2排放量(World Bank) 57
附表3　各國1995-2014年總CO2排放量(WIOD) 58
附表4　各國1995-2009燃料燃燒CO2排放量(WIOD) 59
附表5　各國1995-2009燃料燃燒CO2排放量佔全球之比重(WIOD) 60
附表6　各國1995-2009年平均每人燃燒燃料CO2排放(WIOD) 61

圖目錄
圖1　本研究之流程圖 4
圖2　CO2排放流向圖（以3國為例） 13
圖3　台灣1995-2017年對外貿易依存度比重 17
圖4　各國1995-2009年燃料燃燒CO2排放量佔全球之比例趨勢圖 21
圖5 台灣最終需要隱含CO2排放來源比例堆疊區域圖 24
圖6 中國大陸最終需要隱含CO2排放來源比例堆疊區域圖 24
圖7 日本最終需要隱含CO2排放來源比例堆疊區域圖 25
圖8 美國最終需要隱含CO2排放來源比例堆疊區域圖 25
圖9 韓國最終需要隱含CO2排放來源比例堆疊區域圖 26
圖10　各國1995-2009年DEDS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放之比例圖 28
圖11　各國1995-2009年DEFS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放之比例圖 30
圖12 各國1995-2009年FEDS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放之比例圖 31
圖13　各國1995-2009年FEFS占一國燃燒燃料CO2排放之比例圖 33
附圖 1　各國1995-2014年燃料燃燒CO2排放量趨勢圖 57

中文文獻
江佳蓁 (2011)，排放交易制度對能源密集產業碳風險與碳洩漏之影響評估，國立台北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所，碩士論文。
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