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研究生:張暘亘
研究生(外文):Chang, Yang Hsuan
論文名稱:經理人過度自信於經濟衰退時對企業併購之影響
論文名稱(外文):The impact of CEO overconfidence on mergers & acquisitions during economic recession
指導教授:陳嬿如陳嬿如引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Yenn Ru
口試委員:何耕宇陳鴻毅陳嬿如
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:財務管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2018
畢業學年度:106
語文別:英文
論文頁數:51
中文關鍵詞:經理人過度自信經濟衰退企業併購
外文關鍵詞:CEO overconfidenceEconomic recessionMergers & acquisitions
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本研究探討過度自信經理人於經濟衰退階段時之併購行為。本研究蒐集S&P1500大企業於1993年至2016年的資料,對過度自信經理人於景氣衰退階段的併購機率、宣告效果、長期股價表現進行分析。因為過度自信經理人低估景氣衰退所造成的高度不確定性,同時高估本身能夠透過併購所創造的公司價值,我們預期過度自信經理人相較非過度自信經理人更容易在景氣衰退的階段進行併購。然而實證結果過顯示過度自信經理人的併購機率於2008年金融海嘯後大幅下降,減少併購的幅度顯著高於非過度自信經理人。此結果和過去文獻一致,說明在財務資源不足的情況下,過度自信經理人會比非過度自信經理人更不願意投資。因為過度自信經理人高估自家公司權益價值,認為資本市場低估其權益價值,就算面對能為公司創造價值的投資案時也不願意向外發行股票籌資,因而導致他們在經氣衰退時較非過度自信經理人投資更保守。
The study examines the behaviors of overconfident CEOs during recessions using firms included in S&P 1500 Index from 1993 to 2016. We propose that overconfident CEOs would undertake more M&As than non-overconfident CEOs during recessions for their biased beliefs lead them to underestimating the risk they would incur in recessions and overestimating the synergy they can create through M&As. However, we found that, during and after the 2008 Recessions, overconfident CEOs reduce significantly more in undertaking M&As than non-overconfident CEOs. The results are consistent with past literatures and suggest that decrease in financial resources caused by recession lead overconfident CEOs, who overestimate the value of their own equity and are unwilling to issue new equity, to reducing more in undertaking M&As than non-overconfident CEOs after and during recession.
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review and Hypothesis 3
2.1 Literature Review 3
2.1.1 Determinants of Mergers and Acquisitions 3
2.1.2 CEO Overconfidence 4
2.1.3 Recession and M&As 6
2.2 Hypothesis 7
2.2.1 Probability of Bidding 7
2.2.2 Announcement Effect and Long-term Performance 9
3. Empirical Analysis 10
3.1 Data 10
3.2 CEO Overconfidence 10
3.3 Recession Years 12
3.4 Probability of Bidding 13
3.5 Announcement Effect 14
3.6 Long-term Performance 15
4. Empirical Results 17
4.1 Probability of Bidding 17
4.2 Announcement Effect 21
4.3 Long-term Performance 23
5. Conclusion 25
References 26
Appendix: Variable Definitions 51
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