本研究探討政府外債與經濟成長是否存在非線性的關係。觀察2000年到2015年中低所得國家與中高所得國家，使用系統性一般動差法與縱橫平滑轉換模型進行實證研究分析。
　　結果顯示，使用系統性一般動差法，中低所得國家政府外債占GDP比例門檻值為34.27%與77.02%，中高所得國家門檻值則為31.17%與75.43%。在第一個門檻值前增加外債對經濟成長有負面影響，而在兩個門檻值之間增加外債則是會對經濟成長有正面影響，超過第二個門檻值，增加外債對經濟成長有負面影響。使用縱橫平滑轉換模型，不論是中低所得國家或是中高所得國家，舉借外債對經濟成長有負面影響。綜合兩種方法而言，增加政府外債占GDP比例會對經濟成長有負面影響。
　　其他變數對中低所得國家而言，政府消費支出占GDP比例對經濟成長有負面影響，開放程度與政府軍事支出占GDP比例對經濟成長有正面影響。對中高所得國家而言，政府消費支出占GDP比例與中學註冊率對經濟成長有負面影響，稅收占GDP比例與政府健康支出占GDP比例對經濟成長有正面影響。

Based on lower-middle-income and the higher-middle-income countries’ experiences over the period from 2000 to 2015, this paper analyzes the relationship between government external debt and economic growth by using the methods of system-GMM and the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PTSR).

The system-GMM estimation results indicate that the threshold values of the ratio of the government external debt to GDP in the lower-middle-income countries are 34.27% and 77.02%, while those in the higher-middle-income countries are 31.17% and 75.43%. When the ratio is less than the first threshold value or greater than the second threshold value, increases in government external debt result in negative impact on economic growth. When the ratio lies between the first and second threshold values, increases in government external debt result in positive impact on economic growth. The PSTR estimation results indicate that raising government external debt has negative impact on economic growth for both lower-middle-income and higher-middle-income countries.

The ratio of government consumption to GDP negatively affects economic growth; the ratio of openness as well as military expenditure to GDP positively affect economic growth in the lower-middle-income countries. The ratio of government consumption to GDP and enrollment rate of secondary schools negatively affect economic growth; the ratios of tax income to GDP as well as national health expenditure to GDP positively affect economic growth in the higher-middle-income countries.

中文摘要......i
英文摘要......ii
誌謝......v
目錄......vi
表目錄......viii
圖目錄......ix
第一章 緒論......1
第一節 研究動機......1
第二節 研究目的......6
第二章 文獻回顧......7
第一節 外債與經濟成長呈現線性關係文獻......7
第二節 外債與經濟成長呈現非線性關係文獻......11
第三節 縱橫平滑轉換模型(PSTR)相關文獻......13
第三章 研究方法......16
第一節 理論基礎......16
第二節 研究資料......17
第三節 變數選取......19
第四節 一般動差法(Generalized Method of Moments, GMM)......22
第五節 縱橫平滑轉換模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR)......24
第四章 實證結果......29
第一節 中低所得國家一般動差法實證結果......29
第二節 中高所得國家一般動差法實證結果......37
第三節 中低所得國家縱橫平滑轉換模型實證結果......45
第四節 中高所得國家縱橫平滑轉換模型實證結果......55
第五章 結論......67
參考文獻......70

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