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研究生:吳家豪
研究生(外文):WU, CHIA-HAO
論文名稱:後塔信時期的泰國政治變遷:民主退卻觀點的分析
論文名稱(外文):Thailand’s Political Changes in Post-Thaksin Era:A Perspective of Democratic Retreat
指導教授:陳佩修陳佩修引用關係
指導教授(外文):CHEN, PEI-HSIU
口試委員:趙文志翁俊桔
口試委員(外文):CHAO,WEN-CHIHWENG, CHUN-CHIEH
口試日期:2018-06-23
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立暨南國際大學
系所名稱:東南亞學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:區域研究學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2018
畢業學年度:106
語文別:中文
論文頁數:98
中文關鍵詞:民主半民主憲法選舉軍事政變
外文關鍵詞:DemocracySemi-DemocracyConstitutionElectionCoup
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泰國傳統政治結構的核心主要環繞在泰王、軍人與文人團體等三者間的互動,自1932年由君主專制政體改為君主立憲制後,泰國的民主發展就在軍人與文人政府的更迭過程中持續演變。1992年黑色五月事件後,泰國正式進入以選舉為根基的民主時代,各界均看好泰國自此朝向全民主發展。然而2006年泰國軍方發起間隔15年的軍事政變,雖循過往惡性循環模式重新整頓政局,然而仍無法使軍方回復過往獨裁統治的盛況,(軍方)遂於2014年再次發動軍事政變,隨即頒布臨時憲法及重新修頒2016年新憲,且限制五人以上的集會運動,並以各種理由延宕大選之日期,迄今權力仍由軍方把持。雖軍政府表示最遲將於2019年2月舉辦大選,然各界均認為此時間僅是預估規劃,政府並未給予任何承諾。因此,從此現象可以發覺軍政府背後之企圖,無非是恢復過往威權統治時期的權力,導致泰國之民主受到嚴重的破壞。
The core of traditional political structure of Thailand is mainly surrounded by the interaction between Thai king, military and literati. Since the absolute monarchy had been changed to the constitutional monarchy in 1932, the democratic development of Thailand evolved during changes between the military government and the literati government. After Black May (Bloody May) in 1992, Thailand officially entered the democratic era which was based on elections, people are optimistic about Thailand's development towards Comprehensive democracy.However, in 2006, Thai military launched a military coup which was separated by 15 years. Although the military tried to rectify the political situation in order to avoid the vicious cycle, the military could not reply to the past dictatorship. In 2014, the military launched the coup again, immediately enacted an provisional constitution and later enacted the new constitution in 2016. The military prohibited public procession and public meetings over 5 people, and also delayed the election by various reasons. The power is still controlled by the military so far.Although the military government declare that the election will be held in February 2019 at the latest, people believe it is only an estimation, the government has not given any promise. Therefore, it is possible to speculate that the intention of the military government is to restore the power of the past authoritarian rule, leading to serious damage to the democracy of Thailand.
摘要································································································i
Abstract···························································································ii
目次·······························································································iv
表目次····························································································v
圖目次···························································································vi
第一章 緒論··························································1
第一節 動機與目的···············································1
第二節 文獻探討·················································2
第三節 研究方法與限制···········································18
第二章 泰國民主發展歷史·············································20
第一節 軍事威權統治(1932-1973) ··································20
第二節 半民主形成與鞏固(1973-2000)·······························25
第三節 塔信時期(2001-2006)·······································33
第三章 塔信體制網絡的分析···········································40
第一節 塔信體制網絡·············································40
第二節 政黨體系與政黨運作·······································44
第三節 保守體制(王室網絡)的對抗·································51
第四章 軍事政權的復辟···············································65
第一節 王權的繼承···············································65
第二節 帕拉育崛起背景與政策方針·································71
第三節 泰國政治結構之演變·······································79
第五章 結論·························································87
第一節 研究發現·················································87
第二節 研究建議·················································91
參考文獻····························································92

表目次
表1-1:泰國歷次政變(1932-2018)··························································14
表3-1:2007年參與國會選舉政黨與大選結果············································46
表3-2:1997年憲法與2007年憲法之比較··················································54
表3-3:1997年與2007年選舉制度之比較··················································55
表3-4:2007年憲法的缺點(與1997年憲法比較)·········································56
表3-5:2007-2008年司法裁決解散之政黨·················································58
表3-6:司法裁決解職之總理·································································59
表4-1:憲法公投結果··········································································77

圖目次
圖1-1:民主化模型··············································································6
圖1-2:民主鞏固的概念········································································6
圖1-3:泰國的「惡性循環」政治過程························································15
圖2-1:1998-2007年泰國媒體不自由的程度··············································34
圖3-1:2001-2011年泰國國會大選政黨名單席次百分比(單位%)····················47
圖3-2:泰國2011年大選選前民調(單位%)················································48
圖3-3:泰國傳統的政治核心結構(王室網絡) ············································51
圖3-4:泰國近代的政治結構·································································52
圖4-1:2014臨時憲章規範下的特殊機構··················································74
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2014/5/22。〈泰國軍方發動政變全面接管政權〉,《風傳媒》, <http://www.storm.mg/article/31435/20140522>。
2014/5/28。〈泰軍方:已釋放很多被拘者〉,《BBC 中文網》, <http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/05/140528_thai_coup>。
2014/5/30。〈沒有軍方的支持,文人政府將輕易瓦解—泰國歷年軍方政變整理列表〉,《The News Lens 關鍵評論》, <https://www.thenewslens.com/article/4297>。
2014/6/9。〈Election, two other laws untouched〉,《曼谷郵報》,<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/414406/>。
2014/7/23。〈King backs interim charter〉,《曼谷郵報》,<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/421856/>。
2014/7/23。〈New constitution to be drafted, in effect in one year〉,《曼谷郵報》,
<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/421959/interim-charter-does-not-exclude-prayuth-being-pm>。
2014/8/21。〈政變軍頭出任總理泰國民主再度倒退〉,《風傳媒》,<http://www.storm.mg/article/34966/20140821 >。
2014/9/4。〈泰國將軍總理巴育,抓權抓勢抓軍隊〉,《環球人物》,<https://kknews.cc/zh-tw/world/3j24jv3.html>。
2014/9/9。〈強人帕拉育:當泰國民主遭遇將軍總理〉,《中國新聞周刊網》,<https://3g.163.com/news/article/A5MSF41F00014AEE.html>。
2014/9/19。〈NCPO names military heads who will pick reform council〉,《曼谷郵報》,
<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/433012/ncpo-names-military-heads-who-will-pick-reform-council>。
2014/9/30。〈NRC picks stir barrage of criticism〉,《曼谷郵報》, <https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/435025/nrc-picks-stir-barrage-of-criticism>。
2014/10/6。〈All 250 National Reform Council members appointed〉,《曼谷郵報》,<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/436208/national-reform-council-membership-finalised-gazetted>。
2015/12/24。〈預計2017和平移轉權力泰軍政府:完成改革是民主化前提〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://hk.thenewslens.com/article/33190>。
2016/2/4。〈泰國強人總理—帕拉育〉,《ASEAN PLUS南洋誌》, <https://aseanplusjournal.com/2016/02/04/aseanland0204/>。
2016/4/1。〈泰國新憲法草案出爐紅衫軍、為泰黨:反對到底〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
< https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/39298 >。
2016/6/25。〈長子乖張長女乖巧,泰王蒲美蓬的繼承者難題:「我沒有死的本錢」〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/42799>。
2016/7/13。〈Police raid Prachatai for vote no material〉,《曼谷郵報》,<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1034297/>。
2016/7/16。〈Media says new order curbs freedoms〉,《曼谷郵報》,<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1036797/>。
2016/7/16。〈泰國足可嘲笑土耳其政變水準低:泰軍校設有政變課程〉,《東方新聞網》,<https://kknews.cc/zh-tw/news/npolk8.html>。
2016/7/27。〈Abhisit says no to draft charter〉,《曼谷郵報》,<https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1045905/>。
2016/8/8。〈泰國通過史上第20部憲法,軍方實力空前強化〉,《端》,<https://theinitium.com/article/20160807-dailynews-Thailand/>。
2016/8/9。〈泰國憲法公投過關,走向隱性軍政府〉,《端》,<https://theinitium.com/article/20160809-international-thailand-referendum-analysis/>。
2016/10/16。〈拉瑪九世70年:泰王蒲美蓬辭世與國家後續發展〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/51566>。
2016/10/30。〈泰王駕崩攝政王掌權政局迷離〉,《亞洲週刊》,<http://www.yzzk.com/cfm/content_archive.cfm?id=1476934089756&docissue=2016-43>。
2016/11/12。〈立憲君主政體的黃昏:泰國後蒲美蓬時代王權建構的困境〉,《自由時報》,
< http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/1884787>。
2016/12/2。〈哇集拉隆功繼位成泰王拉瑪十世預計明年正式加冕〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/55771>。
2017/1/13。〈泰總理:將尊重國王建議,修改新憲法及臨時憲法〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/59109>。
2017/7/18。〈泰國頒布新法:泰王能直接掌控數十億美元王室資產〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/73766>。
2017/8/24。〈泰王拉瑪十世的擴權:營造「恐懼」能奪權,但能否鞏固權力?〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/76987>。
2017/10/19。〈使人戒慎恐懼的「冒犯君王罪」:泰王逝世一年後,言論自由只有快速緊縮〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/80915>。
2018/1/16。〈賦予總理絕對權力?泰國民主化的背後靈「臨時憲法第44條」〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/87433>。
2018/2/2。〈臉書轉貼BBC新聞竟涉「辱王室」恐坐牢,泰國社運人士流亡海外〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/88868>。
2018/2/7。〈泰國大選再延至2019年引抨擊,政治禁令下的反軍政府運動漸趨活躍〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/88929>。
2018/3/2。〈30個泰國政治群體註冊登記成立新政黨〉,《每日頭條》,<https://kknews.cc/world/93zm6rl.html>。
2018/3/3。〈阿披實:巴育要給我們吃定心丸啊〉,《每日頭條》,<https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/world/gy32rqm.html>。
2018/3/10。〈泰前總理阿披實不支持巴育當總理〉,《每日頭條》,<https://kknews.cc/world/3er9zj3.html>。
2018/3/13。〈泰政府承諾大選日期,政壇新勢力進場備受矚目〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/91284>。
2018/4/5。〈誰敢選巴育當泰國總理立馬退黨?巴育提醒阿披實:說話小心點〉,《每日頭條》,
<https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/world/epgx99y.html>。
2018/4/11。〈泰國新晉註冊政黨數量繁多,泰媒稱選舉時恐混亂〉,《每日頭條》,<https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/world/288pqk9.html>。
2018/5/3。〈不滿泰國軍政府打壓社運人士,曼谷近千民示威要政府還權於民〉,《中央通訊社》,
<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/94865>。
2018/5/5。〈泰反軍政府人士集會要求速還政於民〉,《中央通訊社》,<http://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201805050209-1.aspx>。
2018/5/21。〈「泰國大選」曼谷示威遊行爆發前,紅衫軍在先行搞了場「預熱」?〉,《每日頭條》,
<https://kknews.cc/zh-mo/world/xq644kr.html>。
2018/5/25。〈泰國總理巴育64歲生日,十世王賜花瓶祝福!〉,《每日頭條》,<https://kknews.cc/world/289jkzg.html>。
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