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研究生:蔣沛容
研究生(外文):Pei-Jung Chiang
論文名稱:兩岸觀光之興衰: 政治、經濟及陸客心理因素之探討
論文名稱(外文):The Rise and Fall of Cross-Strait Tourism: A Political, Economic and Psychological Analysis
指導教授:陳若蘭陳若蘭引用關係
指導教授(外文):Rou-lan, Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:國際經營管理碩士學程
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2018
畢業學年度:106
語文別:英文
論文頁數:95
中文關鍵詞:兩岸觀光兩岸關係固定效應模式多元迴歸分析陸客政黨輪替
外文關鍵詞:Multiple regressionFixed-effect modelChinese touristsCross-Strait TourismCross-Strait relationsParty turnover
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此研究旨於研究兩岸觀光和兩岸政治、經濟及中國客心理因素的關聯性,並進一步檢視台灣2016年政黨輪替對於中國客心理因素轉變及其對於兩岸觀光之影響。
為增加研究的深度及廣度,本研究使用四種不同研究方法,包括制度分析法、固定效應模式(Fixed-Effect Model)、多元迴歸分析(Multiple Regression Analysis)及深度訪問研究法。首先,在政治因素方面,制度分析法用來分析海峽兩岸之兩岸策略及其觀光政策,並進一步研究兩岸觀光和政策面的關聯性;研究結果證實台灣政府對於九二共識的不認同以及其積極性的觀光政策和對於陸客低價團的防禦性政客皆影響兩岸觀光,此外,中國於2016台灣政黨輪替後對於兩岸觀光的制裁及偏頗國民黨執政縣市的策略對兩岸觀光也有著深遠的影響。第二,為了分析台灣經濟因素是否會影響兩岸觀光,本研究使用固定效應模式以檢視台灣各縣市2008至2016年之經濟指標是否顯著影響兩岸觀光人數;其分析結果顯示,唯有被視為經濟指標之一的觀光硬體設備,包括旅館房間數以及地方古蹟數,對兩岸觀光有著不可小覷的影響力。再者,本研究更使用多迴歸分析,來針對陸客之心理因素,包括台灣政局穩定性、台灣人民友善程度、台灣旅遊安全性及台灣旅遊吸引力和兩岸觀光之間的關聯性進行分析;結果指出,台灣人民友善程度、台灣旅遊吸引力及安全都對於兩岸觀光有重要影響。此外,本文也更欲凸顯2016年政黨輪替後陸客的心理轉折及其對兩岸觀光之影響;然而,由於現階段沒有相關民調資料,因此本文輔以深度訪問來探討陸客在2016年台灣政黨輪替後的心理轉變對兩岸觀光造成的影響,訪談結果顯示2016年政黨輪替對於陸客來台意願及對台灣的看法皆有負面的影響。
The research aims to explore how cross-strait political, economic and psychological factors can cast impact on the cross-strait tourism. In addition, the study further investigates the transformation of Chinese tourists’ psychology after Taiwan’s party turnover in 2016.
Firstly, by examining the cross-strait strategies and the tourism policies from both Taiwanese and Chinese government, it indicates the how the government and the policies cast the impact on the cross-strait tourism. Secondly, the coefficients and the relationships between the cross-strait tourism and Taiwan’s economic indicators is testified. In addition, the correlations between Chinese tourists’ perception on Taiwan are investigated. Finally, the effects of the changes of Chinese tourists’ psychology on the cross-strait tourism after Taiwan’s party turnover in 2016 are further examined.
In order to increase the width and the depth of the study, four research methods are adapted to complement with each other. The institution analysis is used to study the cross-strait strategies and the tourism policies from both Taiwanese and Chinese government. In addition, the fixed-effected model is utilized to examine the relationship between the economy structure of each city from 2008 to 2016 in Taiwan and the cross-strait tourism. Additionally, the multiple regression analysis is adapted to explore how Chinese tourists’ perception on Taiwan’s political environment, the friendliness of the Taiwanese and the location factors from 2008 to 2015 are related to the cross-strait tourism. Finally, the study also aims further investigate the change in the perception after the party turnover in 2016. However, the relevant data is limited; therefore, the in-depth interviews were used to further gain the insights from the Chinese tourists.
The results confirm that the political, economic and the psychological factors play the key roles on the cross-strait tourism. For the political factors, not only Taiwan’s political platform of neglecting 1992 Consensus and its tourism policies would affect the cross-strait tourism, but also China’s sanction on the cross-strait tourism and its dissent to the current Taiwanese government are crucial. In addition, the economic indicators- the hardware of the tourism industry -is positively correlated to the cross-strait tourism. Furthermore, for the psychological factors, the friendliness of Taiwanese people, the location attractiveness of Taiwan and the security are proven to be related to the cross-strait tourism. Finally, the study also verifies that the change of the psychological mechanisms of the Chinese tourists to Taiwan after 2016 casts a negative impact on the cross-strait tourism.
Chapter One: Introduction 1
1. 1 Research Background 1
1. 2 Research Questions 4
1. 3 Research Methodologies 6
Chapter Two: Background of the Cross-Strait Relations 10
2. 1 Lee Teng-hui (1990-2000) 10
2. 2 Chen Shui-bian (2000-2008) 12
2. 3 Ma Ying-jeou (2008-2016) 13
Chapter Three: Literature Review 15
3. 1 Supporting Policies and Political Stability 15
3. 2 Transformation of Taiwanese Economy 18
3. 3 Location Attractiveness 22
3. 4 Emotional Attachment 23
Chapter Four: Research Hypothesis 26
4. 1 Political Factors 26
4. 2 Economic Factors 28
4. 3 Psychological Factors 29
Chapter Five: Research Design 33
5. 1 Institutional Analysis 34
5. 2 Fix-Effect Model 35
5. 3 Multiple Regression Analysis 37
5. 4 In-Depth Interview 39
Chapter Six: Empirical Findings of the Political Factors 42
6. 1 Taiwan 42
6. 2 China 49
Chapter Seven: Empirical Findings of the Economic Factors 53
7. 1 Hardware of the Tourism Industry 54
7. 2 Industrial Structure 56
7. 3 Economic Expenditure 57
7. 4 Ruling Parties 58
Chapter Eight: Empirical Findings of the Psychological Factors 61
8. 1 Political Conditions 62
8. 2 Friendliness of Taiwanese People 63
8. 3 Location Attractive and Security 63
Chapter Nine: The Changes of the Psychological Factors after 2016 67
9. 1 Political Conditions 67
9. 2 Friendliness of Taiwanese People 70
9. 3 Location Attractive and Security 71
Chapter Ten: Conclusion and Discussion 74
10. 1 Conclusion of the Study 74
10. 2 Limitation of the Study 79
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