臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Estimation of construction project duration is extremely hard during various construction phases due to complexity, uncertainty and limited information available during a project course. Construction managers estimate construction duration according to their previous experience based on budget planning, a method that can be inaccurate and costly. This study developed a novel inference model that accurately estimate project duration factoring in the dependent and independent factors that significantly influence project duration and captures uncertainty involved in construction field. Duration influencing factors were selected based on the previous studies review, and later categorized into time dependent and independent factors. Subsequently, two artificial intelligence approaches were fused, namely neural networks (NN) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) to create a novel Neural Network - Long Short-Term Memory (NN-LSTM) model. The NN-LSTM was applied to estimate schedule to completion (ESTC) for historical cases where NN captured the impact of independent factors in project duration as LSTM captured the long temporal dependency for sequential inputs. After the analysis, 14 influencing factors and 11 historical cases were selected to establish the case database used for learning purposes. 10-cross validation was used to partition the training and testing dataset. The learning results indicated good performance with MAPE of 4% and mean absolute error of 2% proving the model more reliable than the currently prevailing formula. Moreover, upon comparison with other methods, NN-LSTM proved to be superior to SVM, LSSVM, BPNN, ESIM, ELSIM, SOS-LSSVM and the earned value method (EVM). The model qualifies to replace the subjective estimation based on experience alone. It provides project managers with reliable schedule estimates that facilitates proper planning and help in monitoring project’s performance in terms of time, prompting timely actions in case of foreseen delay and making of informed decisions.

Estimation of construction project duration is extremely hard during various construction phases due to complexity, uncertainty and limited information available during a project course. Construction managers estimate construction duration according to their previous experience based on budget planning, a method that can be inaccurate and costly. This study developed a novel inference model that accurately estimate project duration factoring in the dependent and independent factors that significantly influence project duration and captures uncertainty involved in construction field. Duration influencing factors were selected based on the previous studies review, and later categorized into time dependent and independent factors. Subsequently, two artificial intelligence approaches were fused, namely neural networks (NN) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) to create a novel Neural Network - Long Short-Term Memory (NN-LSTM) model. The NN-LSTM was applied to estimate schedule to completion (ESTC) for historical cases where NN captured the impact of independent factors in project duration as LSTM captured the long temporal dependency for sequential inputs. After the analysis, 14 influencing factors and 11 historical cases were selected to establish the case database used for learning purposes. 10-cross validation was used to partition the training and testing dataset. The learning results indicated good performance with MAPE of 4% and mean absolute error of 2% proving the model more reliable than the currently prevailing formula. Moreover, upon comparison with other methods, NN-LSTM proved to be superior to SVM, LSSVM, BPNN, ESIM, ELSIM, SOS-LSSVM and the earned value method (EVM). The model qualifies to replace the subjective estimation based on experience alone. It provides project managers with reliable schedule estimates that facilitates proper planning and help in monitoring project’s performance in terms of time, prompting timely actions in case of foreseen delay and making of informed decisions.

ABSTRACT i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iv
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF FIGURES vii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS viii
LIST OF SYMBOLS x
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research motivation 1
1.2 Research objectives 4
1.3 Scope Definition and Basic Assumption 5
1.4 Research Methodology 6
1.4.1 Introduction 9
1.4.2 Literature Review 10
1.4.3 Model Construction 10
1.4.4 Model Validation 10
1.4.5 Model Application 11
1.4.6 Conclusion and recommendation 11
1.5 Study Outline 11
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 13
2.1 Delay in construction projects 13
2.2 Methodology 16
2.2.1 Earned Value Management (EVM) 16
2.2.2 Support Vector Machine (SVM) 20
2.2.3 Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) 22
2.2.4 Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN) 24
2.2.5 Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model (ESIM) 25
2.2.6 Evolutionary Least Support Vector Machine (ELSIM) 26
2.2.7 The Symbiotic Organisms Search-Least Squares Support Vector Machine (SOS-LSSVM) 27
2.2.8 Neural Networks 28
2.2.9 Long Short-Term Memory 29
CHAPTER 3: ESTIMATE SCHEDULE TO COMPLETION INFERENCE MODEL- NN-LSTM 33
3.1 Model architecture 33
3.2 Model Adaptation Process 35
CHAPTER 4: PREDICTION OF ESTIMATE SCHEDULE TO COMPLETION 43
4.1 Selection of the duration factors 43
4.2 Data collection 47
4.3 Data processing 50
4.4 Cross Validation 52
4.5 Model training 53
4.6 Model testing 54
4.7 Result comparison 56
4.7.1 Earned Value Management 56
4.7.2 Other AI methods 58
CHAPTER 5: MODEL APPLICATION 62
5.1 Case study 62
5.2 Data preparation 64
5.3 ESTC prediction 66
5.4 Calculation of ESAC 68
5.5 Decision-making 70
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 72
6.1 Research objectives review summary 72
6.2 Conclusion 73
6.3 Recommendations 75
REFERENCES 76

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