臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文參考引用Rajan and Zingales (1998) 跨國家別及跨產業別模型，使用53個國家27個產業樣本，探討1989年至2004年產業出口波動之實證分析。透過一個國家的金融整合程度來了解該國依賴外部融資產業其出口波動的影響。在實證模型中本文用以衡量解釋變數-國家金融整合程度與依賴外部融資產業的樣本期間，與應變數-衡量出口波動率樣本期間有所相異，其目的在於消除解釋變數與應變數間彼此因果關係不明而引發之內生性問題。

經本文實證結果可得到國家的金融整合程度愈高對於其依賴外部融資產業的出口波動將有正向衝擊的影響。其次為穩健主要實證結果，本文亦採取多項穩健性測試分析，包含更換應變數出口波動衡量的方式、更換衡量國家金融整合程度之指標、更換產業對外融資之指標、分量迴歸分析以及去除離均五國後的OLS分析，藉由上述各項穩健性測試分析皆可得到與實證結果相同之結論，並且穩健本文主要結果之論述。

最後本文透過擴展基礎模型探討不同金融整合程度的國家，是否會因國家本身處在不同發展階段、國家政治質量或經濟質量的不同與否，而對於該國依賴外部融資產業出口波動的影響有所相異。藉由本文觀察值實證結果得知，國家的政治質量將會影響一國金融整合程度對於該國依賴外部融資產業出口的波動性。即政治制度或政治環境不健全或較不完善的國家，相較於政治制度或政治環境較為完善的國家，政治制度較不完善的國家該國的金融整合程度高，亦會增加其依賴外部融資產業出口波動的影響。

This paper applies the model proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998) to a cross-country cross-industry dataset to examine whether countries with a higher degree of financial integration will have higher export volatility in the industries that rely more on external financing. The sample covers 27 industries in 53 countries for the 1989-2004 period.

The primary result shows that for those industries relying more on external finance, financial integration can intensify their export volatilities. This result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, such as using alternative measures of export volatility, employing different indicators of financial integration, substituting the indices of external financing, taking out the outliners.

As an additional sensitivity check, I also concern the possible heterogeneous effect of financial integration on export volatility by considering the quality of political and economic institutions, and the stage of development. I find that the country with lower quality of political institution will intensify the impact of financial integration on export volatility for those industries depending more on external finance.

目錄 Ⅰ
圖目錄 Ⅱ
表目錄 Ⅱ
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 金融整合對經濟活動的影響 5
第二節 影響貿易波動的因素 9
第三章 研究方法與實證資料 12
第一節 研究方法 12
第二節 資料來源及樣本選定 14
第三節 變數定義及來源 16
第四章 實證結果與分析 27
第一節 主要結果 27
第二節 穩健性測試 30
第五章 結論 46
參考資料 49

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖 4
圖3-1 各國資產負債比 20
圖3-2 各國外債比 21

表目錄
表1-1 貿易地理預測分佈（地區總出口占世界出口的比例）2
表3-1 變數定義表-跨國家別跨產業別 22
表3-2 變數定義表-產業別 22
表3-3 變數定義表-國家別 23
表3-4 產業別相關統計數據 24
表3-5 國家別相關統計數據 25
表3-5 國家別相關統計數據(續) 26
表4-1 主要結果 29
表4-2 穩健性測試-更換應變數(TEXPORT) 32
表4-3 穩健性測試-更換金融整合指標(LDEBT) 34
表4-4 穩健性測試-更換融資指標(CEXTF) 37
表4-5 國家發展狀態 40
表4-6 國家政治制度質量 41
表4-7 國家經濟制度質量 42
表4-8 穩健測試_去除極端值(百分之五十分量迴歸) 44
表4-9 穩健測試_去除極端值(去除五國) 45

中文部分
蘇妤潔 (2017)，「金融整合對產業出口競爭力的影響」，淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士論文。

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