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研究生:鄭至皓
研究生(外文):Bulganchimeg Munkhbat
論文名稱:智慧型手機的專利分析和趨勢預測
論文名稱(外文):Patent Analysis and Trend Prediction of Smartphone
指導教授:魏秋建魏秋建引用關係
指導教授(外文):WEI, CHIU-CHI
口試委員:張毓騰劉光泰魏秋建
口試委員(外文):Chang, Yu-TengLIU, GUANG-TAIWEI, CHIU-CHI
口試日期:2019-06-18
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:工業管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:107
語文別:英文
論文頁數:46
中文關鍵詞:智能手機應用程序預測技術
外文關鍵詞:Smartphoneapppredictiontechnology
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:111
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智能手機是一項偉大的技術,它以各種方式改變了我們的世界。這是對核心市場
的重大打擊,並成為流行文化的一部分。它改變了人與人之間的關係,加速了對信息
的訪問。實際上,智能手機已經取代了我們日常使用的許多設備,例如相機,便攜式
立體聲,筆記本,鬧鐘,信用卡,錄音機,計算器,字典等。與各種應用程序相結合,
智能手機甚至可以成為前所未有的多功能工具,使人類幾乎可以做任何他們想做的事
情。本研究旨在通過分析現有智能手機專利,然後利用德爾菲法預測智能手機的發展
趨勢來研究智能手機的現狀。
Smartphones are a great technology that has transformed our world in a variety of
ways. It was a major blow to the core market and became part of popular culture. It has
changed the relationship between people and accelerated access to the inform ation. In
reality, smartphone has replaced a lot of our daily used devices, such as camera, portable
stereo, notebook, alarm, credit card, recorder, calculator, dictionary, and the like. In
conjunction with various kinds of App, a smartphone can even be a n unprecedented
multifunctional tools that enable human to do almost everything they want to do. This
study aims to investigate the current situation of smartphones by analyzing the existing
smartphone patent and then predict the trend of smartphone using Delphi method.
摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
Acknowledgements iii
Chapters iv
Tables iv
Figures vii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Section 1 Background 1
Section 2 App download and usage statics 8
Section 3 Research objectives 11
Section 4 Research method 11
Section 5 Research scope 12
Section 6 Thesis framework and research process 12
Chapter 2 Literature review 15
Section 1 History of mobile phone and smartphone 15
Section 2 The first sensitive smart innovative phone 18
Section 3 Technology prediction 21
Section 4 Delphi method 22
Section 5 Delphi Technique 24
Section 6 Patent analysis 27
Chapter 3 Research Method 30
Section 1 Research method 30
Section 2 Questionnaires 31
Section 3 Procedures and data collection 32
Chapter 4 Result and Discussion 34
Section 1 General information of respondents 34
Section 2 Questionnaire results 37
Section 3 Discussion 42
Chapter 5 Conclussion and Recommendation 43
Section 1 Conclusion 43
Section 2 Recommendation 44
References 45

"Top Countries by Smartphone Penetration & Users - Newzoo". Retrieved 20 April 2018. http://www.businessofapps.com/data/app-statistics/
Newton, Casey (September 10, 2013). "Apple's new iPhone will read your fingerprint". The Verge. Retrieved September
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_smartphone_penet ration
Heeks, Richard (2008). "Meet Marty Cooper – the inventor of the mobile phone".BBC. 41 (6): 26–33. doi:10.1109/MC.2008.192.
"Communities Dominate Brands: Celebrating 30 Years of Mobile Phones". Communities-dominate.blogs.com. 13 November 2009. Retrieved 7 September 2018.
Gartner Says Five of Top 10 Worldwide Mobile Phone Vendors Increased Sales in Second Quarter of 2016". Egham, UK: Strategy Analytics. 19 August 2016. Retrieved 20 March 2016.
Hahn, Hans; Kibora, Ludovic (2008). "The Domestication of the Mobile Phone: Oral Society and New ICT in Burkina Faso". Journal of Modern African Studies. 46: 87–109.
Bernice B. Brown (1968). "Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.": An earlier paper published by RAND (Document No: P-3925, 1968, 15 pages)
Chen, Niangjun (2018) Online Algorithms: From Prediction to Decision. Dissertation (Ph.D.)
The Modified Delphi Technique - A Rotational Modification," Journal of Vocational and Technical Education, Volume 15 Number 2, Spring 1999, web: VT-edu-JVTE-v15n2: of Delphi Technique developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey.
Rescher(1998): Predicting the Future, (Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1998).
Passig, David (1997) "Imen Delphi: A Delphi Variant Procedure for Emergence". Human Organization: Journal of the Society for Applied Anthropology, Southern Methodist University.Dallas, TX. Spring, 56(1), 53-63
Sackman, H. (1974), "Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process", R-1283-PR, April 1974. Brown, Thomas, "An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting", R-944-ARPA, 1972
Grazia Cecere, Nicoletta Corrocher, Riccardo David Battaglia 2014: Innovation and competition in the smartphone industry: Is there a dominant design?
Rowe and Wright (2001): Expert Opinions in Forecasting. Role of the Delphi Technique. In: Armstrong (Ed.): Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Practical Assessment Research and Evaluation Volume 17, Number 5, January 2012

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