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研究生:派翠克
研究生(外文):Patrick A. Mendy
論文名稱:外人直接投資對甘比亞經濟成長之影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Economic Growth (GDP).The Case of The Gambia.
指導教授:胡吳岳胡吳岳引用關係
口試委員:柳婉郁陳亭萱
口試日期:2019-01-22
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:107
語文別:英文
論文頁數:67
中文關鍵詞:對外直接投資國內生產總值向量誤差修正模型格蘭傑因果關係邊際
外文關鍵詞:FDIGDPVECMGranger CausalityMarginalUnidirectional
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本文研究對外直接投資(FDI)對甘比亞國內生產總值(GDP)的影響。採用世界銀行與國際貨幣基金組織1978至2016年之資料,利用普通最小平方法(OLS)、Johansen 共整合、向量誤差修正模型(VECM)與格蘭傑因果關係檢定來分析。OLS估計結果顯示對外直接投資對GDP有正向邊際影響。VECM估算結果顯示,GDP與FDI在短期和長期具顯著正向因果關係,表示對外國直接投資可以促進GDP成長。格蘭傑因果關係結果顯示GDP與FDI之間存在單向因果關聯。因此,我們可以確定對外直接投資對甘比亞GDP具有正向影響,有別於過去研究的發現。因此,本研究建議政府應該積極發展國家基礎設施,以吸引外國企業至甘比亞投資。
The thesis investigates the Impact of FDI on the GDP for the Gambia. It employed secondary time series data sourced from World Bank Website and statistical publications of international Monetary Fund (IMF) using OLS, Johansen’s Cointegration, VECM approach and Causality Analysis for 1978 to 2016 period. The OLS outcomes showed a positive marginal significant impact of FDI on GDP. Findings from VECM estimation technique revealed a marginal significant positive short and long term causativeness relationship with bearings from GDP towards FDI. Which suggests FDI serves as an engine of growth for GDP. The Granger Causality results analysis indicates a unidirectional causal associationship among GDP and FDI. Thus, we can determine a positive impact of FDI on GDP as opposed by discoveries and faith of some researchers as well as other stakeholders. It is therefore suggested that the government should try and develop the current nature of the infrastructures in the nation in order to inspire eloquent future foreign business adventures in the country.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 2
摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
Chapter 1 1
Introduction 1
1.1 Problem Statement. 1
1.2 Research Objectives. 2
1.3 Research Significance. 3
1.4 Research Scope. 4
1.5 Research Structure. 4
Chapter 2 5
2.1 Background. 5
2.2 The Gambia Gross Domestic Product. 6
2.3 Definition and Significance of FDI. 11
Chapter 3 16
3.1 Literature Review 16
Chapter 4 23
Methodology 23
4.1 Nature and Source of Data. 23
4.2 The Solow Residual Growth Model. 23
4.3 Model Specification. 25
4.4 Structure of Analysis. 26
4.5 The Ordinary Least Squares Method (OLS). 27
4.6 Procedures for Ordinary Least Squares Method. 28
Chapter 5 38
The regression results 38
5.1 The Descriptive Statistic and Analysis. 38
5.2 OLS Regression Empirical Results Analysis. 40
5.3 Augmented Dickey Fuller Test Results and Analysis. 44
5.4 The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Granger Causality Test. 47
Optimal Lag Length Criteria 47
5.5 Johansen’s Cointegration Test Result and Analysis. 48
5.6 VECM Granger Causality and Block Exogeneity Wald Tests. 55
5.6 The Pairwise Granger Causality Tests. 56
5.7 Summary of the Findings. 57
Chapter 6 59
6.1 Discussion and Conclusion. 59
6.2 Policy Implication and Recommendation. 61
Reference 63
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