臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

全球氣候變遷會改變水文循環的速率，增強水文極端事件的發生頻率及強度，降雨特性的改變使得用於傳統水文分析的定常性假設不再適用，因此本研究旨在探討台灣地區降雨特性是否存在非定常性，以及若存在非定常性時降雨特性隨時間的變化情形。
本研究使用位置、尺度和形狀的廣義附加模式 (generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape，GAMLSS)進行台灣地區年降雨指標非定常性分析，探討降雨量、延時及極端值等特性之變化情形，選用北、中、南、東等四區域各兩站，共八個雨量站(台北、宜蘭、日月潭、台中、高雄、恆春、大武、成功)不同觀測長度之日雨量資料，分析十種年降雨指標，包括年總雨量、濕季(5-10月)雨量佔年雨量比例、年最大一日雨量、年最大二日雨量、年最大連續降雨日數、年最大連續降雨量、年大雨日數(日雨量≧80mm)、降雨日降雨強度(年總雨量/年降雨日數)、年不降雨日數及年最大連續不降雨日數，藉由機率分佈隨時間的變化觀察各區域八個測站年降雨指標的變化趨勢。分析結果顯示大多數年降雨指標之變化情形在北、中、南、東部並無明顯區域特性，年最大一日雨量及年最大二日雨量有相似之變化，在台北、恆春及大武站於1990年後之近30年來均有上升之趨勢；年最大連續降雨日數在北部呈現定常性，南部及東部則有下降的變化情形；降雨日降雨強度除日月潭及成功站為定常性之外，其餘測站皆在1980年後之近40年來皆有上升趨勢；年不降雨日數在台北、恆春及大武站均有上升的趨勢，宜蘭、台中及成功站則在近年來有下降的情形。此外，本文亦探討不同時間長度之分析是否會影響結果，在本研究中時間長度縮短較多之測站更容易產生不同之模擬結果，且顯現在長時期雨量紀錄的非定常性可能因時間縮短而呈現定常性。

Global climate change would induce changes of the rate of hydrologic cycles and intensify the frequency and intensity of hydrologic extreme events. Changes in rainfall characteristics lead to the hypothesis of stationary in traditional hydrologic analysis no longer applicable. Nonstationary analysis of rainfall characteristics thus becomes one of the important issues in water resources management. In this study, the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) is adopted for the nonstationary analysis of the annual rainfall indices in Taiwan. Ten annual rainfall indices are used to detect alterations of the magnitude, duration, and extreme of annual rainfall regime at eight rainfall stations in the north, central, south, and east regions of Taiwan. The results indicate that 55% of the annual rainfall indices are nonstationary, and the characteristics of regional similarities are not found in most of the annual rainfall indices. Trends of some annual rainfall indices are observed at different stations. Annual 1-day maximum rainfall and annual 2-day maximum rainfall have upward trend in the past 30 years at Taipei, Hengchun, and Dawu stations. Annual maximum consecutive rain days has downward changes in the south and east regions. Daily rainfall intensity has rising trend in the past 40 years at most stations except for Sun Moon Lake and Chengkung stations. Annual dry days has increasing trend at Taipei, Hengchun, and Dawu stations, while the downward trend in recent years has been observed at Yilan, Taichung, and Chengkung stations in recent years.

摘要 I
Extended Abstract II
誌謝 VIII
目錄 IX
表目錄 XI
圖目錄 XII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機與目的 1
1-2 相關文獻回顧 2
1-2-1 非定常性相關研究 2
1-2-2 以GAMLSS模擬非定常性相關研究 6
1-3 本文組織架構 9
第二章 研究方法 10
2-1 Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法 11
2-2 位置，尺度和形狀的廣義附加模式(GAMLSS) 12
2-2-1 模式架構與計算 12
2-2-2 機率分佈 14
2-2-3 附加項 16
2-2-4 優選模式評鑑標準–AIC信息準則 17
2-2-5 優選模式診斷 17
2-3 年降雨指標 18
第三章 研究區域與資料概述 20
3-1 研究區域介紹 20
3-2 雨量站基本資料 21
3-3 年降雨指標統計特性 23
第四章 年降雨指標非定常性分析結果與討論 28
4-1 Mann-Kendall檢定 28
4-2 以GAMLSS模擬年降雨指標之分析結果與討論 33
4-2-1 年降雨指標之最佳模式 33
4-2-2 蠕蟲圖 38
4-2-3 年降雨指標模擬結果 42
4-2-4 年降雨指標隨時間變化型態之分類 72
4-2-5 年降雨指標分析時間長度之探討 75
4-3 Mann-Kendall檢定結果與GAMLSS模擬成果之比較 78
4-4 小結 78
第五章 結論與建議 80
5-1 結論 80
5-2 建議 82
參考文獻 83
附錄一 平均值及變異數隨時間變化圖 91
附錄二 模擬時間為1946~2017年之分位數曲線圖 101

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