臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究為探討兩岸航空公司在運價管制下的航空貨運競爭行為，近年來由於電子資訊產品占兩岸貿易比重日益增加，促使航空貨運往來日益熱絡，由於海峽兩岸特殊環境下，班次及運價是影響航空貨運之重要因素，將採取實際數據應用於市場競爭分析中。
本研究之目的主要有二項，一、針對具有運價及班次上限的寡占航空貨運市場，分析運價及班次變化對於航空貨運公司個別營收或對航線整體營收之影響，進而瞭解對於航空貨運業者的可能衝擊及因應之道，二、希望協助政府作為兩岸航線未來管理及營運策略參考，同時達到航空貨運永續發展的願景及滿足市場需求的航線班次，以獲得航空公司各自利潤最大化。
羅吉特模式(Logit Model)適合分析業主運具的挑選行為，且此項方法已被廣泛應用於多項研究中，本論文為計算效用函數，第一步驟為「航空公司選擇模式」，接著針對航空公司的成本與飛行班次數而建立「成本關係式」，最後將「單航線航空公司間競爭模式」作為競爭分析模型，將航空公司的收入扣除成本而獲得最大利潤。
藉由各項情境結果，本研究藉由情境結果設計四種情境，進行敏感度分析及情境分析，分析不同係數如何影響均衡運價與班次，其中以兩種情境可將航空公司維持原有之利潤甚至獲得更多利潤，情境1為班次減少、運價不變時，各家航空公司可以獲得更多利潤；情境3班次略微減少、運價降低時，也能保持各家公司原有之預設值的利潤，從中分析航空公司的運價與班次數變動對航線市場所造成的影響，可讓政府作為未來價格及班次規劃的調整。

This study aims to market competition among air carriers under cross-strait airfreight freight rates regulations. In recent years, the increasing proportion of cross-strait trade in electronic products, air cargo has become increasingly popular. Due to the special environment of cross-strait, service frequency and freight rates are important factors affecting air cargo. This study will be applied to actual data in market competition analysis.
The two main purposes of this research are: One, to against the market environment under Cross-Strait Airfreight Regulations and to analyze the impact of freight rates and frequencies of service changes on airline revenues. And then we could understand the possible impacts and responses to the airfreight. Two, to optimize the application of Cross-Strait Airfreight Regulations in order to achieve both a sustainable aviation market and a flight schedule that meets the market’s need. The airlines would make the maximum profit.
Review literature focusing on Logit Model is a suitable method for discussing Consignors' Mode Choice Behavior and has been widely used. First of all, we discuss the Consignors' Mode Choice Behavior in the transportation market. Then, the cost relation is established for the cost of the airline and the frequencies of service. Finally, the Market Competition Model among single-route is used as a competitive analysis model. The airline's income minus the cost and then we could get the maximum profit.
Through various scenarios results, this study designs four scenarios and uses the original preset results to find Outliers equilibrium results. Analysis of the changes in freight rates and frequencies of service. And then we could find that the two scenarios are the ideal state of this study. In the case of scenario 1, when the number of service frequencies is reduced and the freight rates are maintained, each airline can obtain more profits. If we choose scenario 3, when the frequencies of service are slightly reduced and the freight rates are reduced, we could maintain the original preset profit of each company. From this, it analyzes the impact of airline freight rates and frequencies of service on the route market. The government can be used as an adjustment to future Airfreight regulations.

誌謝 vi
目錄 vii
表目錄 ix
圖目錄 x
符號說明 xi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 5
1.3 研究流程 6
1.4 研究內容 7
第二章 文獻回顧 9
2.1 市場競爭下之策略規劃 9
2.1.1 航空自由化-開放與管制的市場 9
2.1.2 航空公司競爭行為相關研究及資料 9
2.2 賽局理論簡介及應用 13
2.2.1 賽局理論之基本概念 13
2.2.2 納許均衡Nash equilibrium 15
2.2.3 航空公司運輸業應用賽局理論之相關研究 15
2.2.4 賽局於本研究之運用 17
2.3 兩岸航線貨運相關沿革及資料 20
2.4 小結 23
第三章 研究方法 24
3.1 運具選擇行為 24
3.2 單航線之航空公司間競爭模式 28
3.3 小結 32
第四章 實例應用與分析 33
4.1 現況之均衡分析 33
4.2 參數敏感度與假設情境分析 41
4.3 綜合分析 53
第五章 結論與建議 57
5.1 結論 57
5.2 建議 59
參考文獻 60
附錄1台北至大陸主要城市公告運價 64
附錄2桃園機場兩岸貨量2016年全年資料 65
附錄3 燃油附加費調整通知 66
附錄4桃園到上海的客貨運班機時刻表 67

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