臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　全球氣候變遷導致降雨型態改變，極端的降雨強度變化導致台灣枯旱程度嚴重加劇，在地表水的供不應求的期間，地下水資源的開發就變得十分的重要。本研究著眼於台灣中部濁水溪沖積扇的地下水庫，分析1999到2017年間第1及第2含水層觀測站的地下水位歷線，指出歷史中地下水位相對枯旱的期間與強度，目的是了解本區地下水枯旱狀態的時間分布特性，提供未來地下水管理保育工作的研究基礎。
　　首先，本研究應用標準化地下水位指數法(SGI)，分別使用SGI180歷線與SGI360歷線，評估半年尺度與一年尺度下的地下水位相對強度變化。(1)半年尺度的評估下，第1含水層呈現穩定的豐枯水季交替，第2含水層則在2013、2014及2016年出現無枯水季的現象(2)一年尺度的評估下，最嚴重的枯旱現象出現在2002~2004，此期間第1到第2含水層都出現連續3年的枯水延時，而地層越往下，近年的枯旱訊號則越趨微弱。
　　其次，應用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法，將第1及第2含水層在研究時間1999到2017年間各地下水位歷線的趨勢分為顯著正趨勢(z≥1.96)、顯著負趨勢(z≤-1.96)及無顯著趨勢(1.96〉z〉-1.96)三者，分析含水層枯旱變動趨勢，顯示第1含水層受地表氣候及人為用水影響，在雲林的扇央和扇尾區域呈現明顯的負趨勢；而往下到第2含水層，因此地層為受壓含水層，只有扇頂補注區因直接受到地表氣候影響而呈現負趨勢。
　　接著利用SGI指標的出現機率訂定枯旱度的等級，搭配趨勢檢定的結果，建立(1)單一標準地下水管理線：選擇SGI資料累積分布函數90%、70%、50%、30%與10%出現機率對應豐水、多水、有水、輕度乾旱、中度乾旱與重度乾旱，利用色塊圖顯示枯旱狀態，了解即時枯旱狀態的空間分布。(2)日水位超越機率地下水管理線：改良水利署的月平均水位管理線，以過去日水位資料計算每一天的超越機率值，建立安全水位、下限水位與嚴重下限水位歷線，提供合適的枯旱預警機制。(3)移動式平均地下水管理線：以6月1日起始到隔年5月31日結束為一完整消退循環，以枯旱度篩選經歷年份，將豐水年到枯水年間建立10個級距，藉以觀測各測站在豐枯水年的豐枯水季地下水位變動的狀態。
　　最後，本研究發現研究區域地下水測站，其每年最高地下水位與水位消退到最低水位的差值呈現良好的線性相關，利用歷年資料建立的線性方程式預測各測站的最低水位。研究顯示濁水溪沖積扇上的地下水位測站整體測站之最高水位與其消退差間的相關係數呈現良好的相關性，消退預測的方均根誤差皆小於1公尺，預測結果十分良好。

Groundwater resources have been well exploited in Zhuoshui River Alluvial Fan area for a long history, and is considered to be a vital source of water supply during dry seasons of each year. Variation in precipitation patterns has caused many extreme events in recent decades as well as impacts on groundwater recharge characteristics owing to global climate change. Further studies of historical groundwater records should be taken to meet
the need of better groundwater management strategies for the future.

In the present study, Zhuoshui River Alluvial Fan is chosen as study area. Daily groundwater level monitoring records during 1999 and 2017 from 37 stations on this area are investigated in order to assess the overall groundwater level response to natural
drought phenomena.

Firstly, groundwater level records from each of the stations are analyzed to detect groundwater drought events in short and long time scale using the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) method. Two SGI indictor, SGI180 and SGI360, time series are estimated form data composed with daily groundwater level accumulative sum for an
accumulation period of 180 days and 360 days separately.

Secondly, trend of groundwater level during study period of 37 stations are evaluated with Mann-Kendall test, and establishing standards for groundwater management levels.

Finally, this study uses a groundwater level regression curve with a linear equation between the highest water level and the water level difference to predict the future minimum water level. Wutu station are chosen to build model and the effectiveness of
model are tested.

中英文摘要 II
致謝 VIII
目錄 IX
圖目錄 XI
表目錄 XIV
第一章 前言
1.1研究動機 1
1.2研究流程與論文架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧
2.1乾旱研究
2.1.1全球乾旱研究 7
2.1.2地下水乾旱研究 9
2.2研究區域
2.2.1區域範圍 11
2.2.2地形與地質 11
2.2.3地表水體與河川分布 15
2.3水文地質構造
2.3.1水文地質特性概述 16
2.3.2地下水含水層分層 17
第三章 研究方法
3.1研究資料選取 19
3.2標準化地下水位指數法 25
3.3 Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法檢定法 27
3.4枯旱度評估 29
3.5地下水管理線的建置 33
第四章 研究結果
4.1枯旱度評估結果
4.1.1 第1含水層枯旱分析 36
4.1.2 第2-1含水層枯旱分析 43
4.1.3 第2-2含水層枯旱分析 46
4.1.4含水層中位數分析結果 49
4.1.5含水層分析結論 52
4.2 Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法結果 53
4.3地下水管理線的建置結果
4.3.1單一標準地下水管理線 56
4.3.2日水位超越機率地下水管理線 61
4.3.3移動式平均地下水管理線 63
4.4最低地下水位預測 73
第五章 結論與建議
5.1 結論 78
5.2 建議 80
參考文獻 81
附錄一：研究測站水位歷線、SGI180歷線與SGI360歷線圖 87

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