臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究探討之主題為全球行動寬頻普及率是否具有空間依存性，同時以人均GDP做為一國富裕程度之資料，驗證與行動寬頻普及率間之相關性。根據國家電信聯盟(ITU)公布之資料顯示，全球行動寬頻普及率偏高之國家多彼此相鄰，群聚於特定區域，反之亦然，為了能夠實證行動寬頻普及率空間依存性，本研究除了使用統計之傳統迴歸模型外，更使用地理資訊分析軟體ArcGIS進行探索性空間資料分析驗證行動寬頻普及率是否符合本研究之假設，確立行動寬頻普及率與人均GDP皆具有空間依存性後，使用國家距離與電信產業之特性建立空間權重矩陣，並運用空間計量經濟學中之空間迴歸模型分析國家間行動寬頻普及率間之空間交互作用與模型之配適程度，而使用之空間迴歸模型包括空間落遲模型(Spatial Lag Model)、空間自變數落遲模型(Spatial Lag of X Model)以及空間Durbin模型(Spatial Durbin Model)。研究結果顯示無論於傳統迴歸模型、空間落遲模型、空間自變數落遲模型及空間Durbin模型皆說明行動寬頻普及率與人均GDP之間具有相關性，且迴歸模型相互比較之下顯示，空間迴歸模型之配適度表現更甚於傳統迴歸模型，避免行動寬頻普及率與人均GDP相關係數高估之情形，說明將空間因素納入研究之考量後更可呈現研究資料之特性，進而驗證了空間效果之重要性。本研究藉由一國之富裕程度解釋行動寬頻普及率尚未充分，建議後續研究可探討尚未被發掘之變數，並提供政府單位制定行動寬頻相關政策之建議方向。

This research aims to explore whether mobile broadband penetration has spatial dependence and use the GDP per capita as a country's wealth level to verify the correlation with mobile broadband penetration. Based on the data which published by International Telecommunication Union(ITU) indicated the country has a high mobile broadband penetration rate, the adjacent countries also has a high mobile broadband penetration rate and vice versa. This study uses ArcGIS for exploratory spatial data analysis to verify that the mobile broadband penetration rate is consistent with the hypothesis of this study. The spatial weight matrix is established by using the country's distance and the characteristics of the telecom industry then using the spatial regression model to analyze the spatial interaction. As a result, the spatial regression model is better than a linear regression model to avoid the overestimation of the coefficient. Explain that take the spatial factors into account evidencing the importance of spatial effects. Suggested that follow-up researchers can explore the hidden variables that and observe the changes in the results of the variables after adding the spatial regression model try to provide the direction of the policymakers to enhance the performance of the mobile broadband.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 9
1.3 研究目的 10
1.4 研究範圍 11
1.5 研究架構 11
第二章 文獻回顧 13
2.1 行動寬頻普及率(Mobile Broadband Penetration) 13
2.2 行動寬頻普及率與國家人均GDP之關聯性 15
2.3 國家人均GDP之外溢效果 16
2.4 地理資訊系統(Geographic Information Systems, GIS) 17
2.5 空間統計學(Spatial Statistics) 18
2.6 空間計量經濟學(Spatial Econometrics) 20
第三章 研究方法 22
3.1. 研究資料 22
3.2. 最大概似法(Maximum Likelihood Estimate, MLE) 24
3.3. 空間權重矩陣(Spatial Weights Matrix) 25
3.3.1 國家距離權重矩陣 25
3.3.2 自由貿易協定權重矩陣 26
3.3.3 海纜節點權重矩陣 27
3.4. 空間資料分析(Spatial Data Analysis) 27
3.4.1. 全域型空間自相關(Local Spatial Autocorrelation) 28
3.4.2. 區域型空間自相關(Local Spatial Autocorrelation) 31
3.5. 空間計量經濟模型(Spatial Econometrics Models) 33
3.5.1. 空間落遲模型(Spatial Lag Model, SLM) 33
3.5.2. 空間自變數落遲模型(Spatial Lag of X Model, SLX) 35
3.5.3. 空間Durbin模型(Spatial Durbin Model, SDM) 36
3.6. 配適度檢定指標 37
3.7. 空間乘數效果(Spatial Multiplier) 39
第四章 結果分析 42
4.1. 最大概似法(Maximum Likelihood Estimate, MLE) 42
4.2. 空間自相關 43
4.2.1. 全域型Moran’s I分析 43
4.2.2. 區域型Moran’s I分析 49
4.3. 空間計量經濟模型(Spatial Econometrics Models) 53
4.3.1. 空間落遲模型(Spatial Lag Model, SLM) 53
4.3.2. 空間自變數落遲模型(Spatial Lag of X Model, SLX) 55
4.3.3. 空間Durbin模型(Spatial Durbin Model, SDM) 56
4.4. 空間計量經濟模型之比較 58
4.4.1. 國家距離權重矩陣 58
4.4.2. 自由貿易協定權重矩陣 60
4.4.3. 海纜節點權重矩陣 62
4.5. 空間乘數效果 65
第五章 結論與建議 69
5.1. 結論 69
1 空間依存性分析 70
2 空間群聚現象分析 71
3 傳統迴歸模型與空間迴歸模型之差異 71
4 空間迴歸模型之結果比較 72
5 空間乘數效果 72
5.2. 研究貢獻 73
5.2.1. 學術貢獻 73
5.2.2. 實務貢獻 74
5.3. 研究限制與未來研究方向 75
5.3.1. 研究限制 75
5.3.2. 未來研究方向 76
參考文獻 77
 
表目錄
表 1-1、2016年GDP排名前20名國家之行動寬頻普及率 4
表 1-2、2016年GDP排名後20名國家之行動寬頻普及率 5
表 3-1、各項數據項目說明與使用目的 23
表 3-2、MORAN’S I結果判讀說明 30
表 3-3、MORAN’S I檢定結果說明 30
表 3-4、LISA指標結果說明 33
表 3- 5、空間乘數計算公式與推導過程 39
表 4-1、最大概似迴歸模型分析結果 39
表 4-2、自由貿易協定空間矩陣之全域型MORAN’S I檢定結果 43
表 4-3、海纜節點空間矩陣之全域型MORAN’S I檢定結果 44
表 4-4、空間落遲迴歸模型之檢定結果 49
表 4-5、空間自變數落遲迴歸模型之檢定結果 51
表 4-6、空間DURBIN迴歸模型之檢定結果 53
表 4-7、行動寬頻普及率與人均GDP之迴歸模型分析結果比較表 55
表 4-8、行動寬頻普及率與人均GDP之迴歸模型分析結果比較表 57
表 4-9、空間乘數效果分析結果比較表 59

 
圖目錄
圖 1-1、全球行動寬頻普及率與人均GDP之散佈圖 6
圖 1-2、2016年全球行動寬頻普及率 7
圖 1-3、2016年全球人均GDP 8
圖 1-4、研究流程圖 11
圖 2-1、空間自相關示意圖 17
圖 3-1、空間分布模式示意圖 28
圖 3-2、空間散佈圖示意圖 30
圖 3-3、空間落遲模型與空間誤差模型選擇流程(ANSELIN, 2005) 38
圖 4-1、2016全球行動寬頻普及率全域型MORAN’S I分析結果 44
圖 4-2、2016全球人均GDP全域型MORAN’S I分析結果 45
圖 4-3、國家距離空間矩陣之區域型MORAN’S I檢定結果 50
圖 4-4、自由貿易協定空間矩陣之區域型MORAN’S I檢定結果 51
圖 4-5、海纜節點空間矩陣之區域型MORAN’S I檢定結果 52
圖 4- 6、空間外溢效果(以日本為例) 67
圖 4- 7、空間外溢效果(以英國為例) 68

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