日常生活範圍內，供應鏈無所不在，而冷藏供應鏈應用於食品、藥物、化學之製造、儲存、運送、銷售。原料及產品在有時效性、隨時間折損產品的庫存管理下，根據其產品、供應鏈特徵，如何減少庫存量、提高服務水平、增加營收、降低報廢，彼此要素之間的權衡、成本與績效的考量、以及日漸高漲之環保意識，是易過期庫存管理的主要目的及課題。

統計數字說明，目前世界存在大量丟棄食品廢棄物的情形，而在企業裡，生管人員以傳統先進規劃系統（Advanced Planning Systems, APS）方法，稼動多產區製造。當在食品、化學或血液原料有冷藏及腐化特徵，在供給來源充足、甚至過剩之時，也就是原料供給大於預估需求，而實際需求又是隨機的情形下，過去時常採用經驗做生產量之評估決策。最終多少原料製造成產品、多少過剩原料轉移成其他類型產品的生產分配，這些大於預估需求量的超額供給，是否對營收有幫助，而如何執行超額供給量的評估，並且不造成無價值庫存堆積、或進一步能減少無價值的供給，達到營收的最大值。

收集冷藏供應鏈中，庫存管理特徵之相關資料，如產品容量需求比、最小批次生產比、需求變化比、供給率等作為自變數，使用多元迴歸分析方法，找出影響造成產品過期報廢之因素，推導出供給率影響產品過期率的權重，並以此在原料過剩的情境下，決定產品超額供給、供給率的數值，最終以營收計算公式計算，包括產品預期營收、多餘原料轉移的營收帶入，找到產品對營收最有利的供給率和預計的最大營收。

在第五章中，描述個案公司之冷藏供應鏈，其庫存管理、實際需求不穩定之特徵，過去在每年生乳原料來源過剩時，每日根據鮮乳產品預估需求量，依經驗及近日超額供給頻率評估其生乳原料分配（鮮乳、保久乳）的生產量排程。本研究以個案公司106年、7支鮮乳產品供需資料等相關變數，運用上述庫存管理特徵，如產品容量需求比、最小批次生產比、需求變化比、供給率等作為自變數，使用多元迴歸分析方法，找出供給率影響過期率的權重，以推導個案公司其鮮乳產品的預期過期率。

最終以個案建立了模擬情境，以計算出的多元迴歸模型，各自變數的權重及設定，依據鮮乳供給率及保久乳的價格變化，以營收計算公式，將鮮乳及保久乳各自的預計營收加總，呈現及推估出生管人員依據鮮乳供給率的改變，影響營收的變化，並可以從圖面找到鮮乳最佳的供給率、營收的最高點與其預估金額，避免了產品無價值供給。

According to the cold chain, among its inventory management data it shown feature with following characteristics, such as raw material till finished product temperature management, process time control, fixed purchase quantity, and random actual demand, etc. When the raw milk supply is excess, the daily demand of fresh milk products are being determined through estimation of raw milk distribution, which proportion is distinguished base on distributing best possible proportion among the feasible amount of fresh milk and ESL (Extended Shelf Life) milk. However, how do we determine the precise and efficient proportion to avoid excess supply and achieve the highest revenue results?
This study using relevant inventory management characteristics, such as product capacity demand ratio, minimum batch production ratio, demand change ratio, supply rate, etc. as the independent variable, using Multiple Regression Analysis method to find out the related factors that affect the product's expiration and scrapping.
In order to deduce the expected expiration rate of the fresh milk product of the case company, it’s aiming on achieving the goal of maximize revenue and balance the price difference between fresh milk and ESL (Extended Shelf Life) milk. Ultimately, determine the key supply rate of fresh milk to avoid excess supply and reduce product expiration.
In chapter five, this study established simulated scenario presented and estimated the optimal supply rate of the fresh milk products by model (1) and indicated the change for the amount of highest revenue based on the wide variation in prices of ESL (Extended Shelf Life) milk.

中文提要 ……………………………………………………………… i
英文提要 ……………………………………………………………… ii
誌謝 ……………………………………………………………… iii
目錄 ……………………………………………………………… iv
圖目錄 ……………………………………………………………… V
表目錄 ……………………………………………………………… vi
第1章 研究動機與目的…………………………… 1
1.1 研究動機…………………………………………… 1
1.2 研究目的…………………………………………… 1
第2章 產業描述與問題分析…………………… 3
2.1 產業描述…………………………………………… 3
2.2 問題分析…………………………………………… 9
第3章 文獻探討…………………………………………… 14
3.1 關於易過期庫存之相關文獻…… 14
3.2 庫存模型分類………………………………… 15
3.3 文獻評述…………………………………………… 16
第4章 研究方法…………………………………………… 19
4.1 營收與浪費模型…………………………… 19
4.2 運用多元迴歸模型找出預期過期率… 21
第5章 應用案例…………………………………………… 27
5.1 個案公司資料與議題…………………… 27
5.2 以多元迴歸分析模型評估最適供給率… 30
第6章 結論與後續研究方向…………………… 41
6.1 結論……………………………………………………… 41
6.2 後續研究方向………………………………… 42
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………… 43

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