臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

臺灣為四面環海之島國，受全球氣候變遷影響，極端災害事件頻率與強度遽增，其中以淹水災害為臺灣最常見的天然災害，時常對環境及人民生財產安全造成嚴重損失，因此，本論文針對淹水災害進行風險評估之研究。
本研究建置淹水災害風險評估之模式，並選定基隆市為研究示範區進行災害風險分析。研究過程除了針對淹水災害之危害度及脆弱度進行分析以外，同時考慮災中應變與災後回復能力，將韌性指標以脆弱度指標之子集合方式加入本研究風險評估模式當中，並運用風險矩陣的概念結合各項指標進行分析，以產製基隆市淹水災害風險地圖。對於風險分析而言，各指標因子的權重分配問題為本研究分析重要工作項目之ㄧ，本研究選定主成份分析方法進行演算，該方法屬於科學計算法，具有分析時間短與數據差異極大化等優勢，相較於常見的專家問卷方法，可以大幅減低分析結果受到人為因素的影響程度。
研究結果顯示，本研究成功將主成份分析法應用於風險評估之權重計算，並建置基隆市淹水災害風險評估模式，同時於該模式中建立基隆市本土化大數據資料庫，且針對地方災害特性進行研究與分析。基隆市淹水風險分析結果，未來可以提供政府機關於地方性災害防救管理與施政之參考。

Flood is one of the major natural and human-induced hazards mostly by the transformation of the natural condition. The frequency of flood compared with other disaster is rapidly increasing and posing a serious threat to human life and loss property. Mitigation of flood disaster is a global concern mainly due to urbanization and climate change. In case of limited resources in Taiwan, how to decrease flood loss and to promote the sustainable use of land are a crucial issue to ensure sustainable development of natural environmental resources.
In this context, we address this problem by disaster risk analysis, which first collects the basic information in Keelung City. The study conducts the flood disaster, susceptibility, vulnerability, and resilience. The hazard and vulnerability of flood disaster are analyzed and the results are brought into the risk matrix to produce a risk map. Weight is an important part of risk analysis. In this study, we conducted a flood risk assessment using principal component analysis(PCA), in which PCA is a mathematical procedure that transforms a number of possibly correlated variables into a number of uncorrelated variables called principal components. Through the PCA, we obtained the dominate factors from vulnerable and susceptible groups for the risk analysis.
The principal component analysis has more advantage with accelerated in process, low error and can improve the discrimination of analysis results compare with the analytic hierarchy process. In addition, demonstrate that high-risk areas for flood in this study area are mainly located around the rivers/drainage system in Keelung City. It can be concluding that very important to put more attention to prevent flood disaster especially for the districts or places near the rivers system. It is expected that results from this study can be used to propose the measures and the elaboration of adaptation strategies.

摘要 I
Abstract II
目次 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1前言 1
1.2研究動機及目的 2
1.3研究內容與架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1災害風險 4
2.2危害度 7
2.2.1危害度定義 7
2.2.2危害度指標因子 7
2.3脆弱度 9
2.3.1脆弱度定義 9
2.3.2脆弱度指標因子 12
2.4韌性 15
2.4.1韌性定義 16
2.4.2韌性指標因子 18
2.4.3脆弱度與韌性之比較 21
2.5風險指標權重分析 22
第三章 研究區域與分析方法 25
3.1研究整體規劃 25
3.2研究區域 26
3.2.1研究區域概述 27
3.2.2研究區域之災害熱區分析 29
3.3主成份分析法 37
3.3.1主成份分析理論 38
3.3.2共變異矩陣與相關係數矩陣 40
3.3.3特徵值及特徵向量 41
3.3.4主成份負荷數(Loading) 41
3.3.5主成份貢獻率 42
3.3.6主成份選取基準 42
3.3.7主成份權重分析 43
3.4風險矩陣 44
第四章 淹水災害風險評估技術之建置 45
4.1災害危害度指標分析 46
4.1.1淹水災害危害度因子說明 47
4.1.2危害度指標主成份分析 60
4.1.3基隆市淹水災害危害度分級地圖 63
4.2災害脆弱度指標分析 73
4.2.1淹水災害脆弱度因子說明 73
4.2.2脆弱度指標主成份分析 85
4.2.3基隆市淹水災害脆弱度分級地圖 88
4.3災害韌性指標分析 94
4.3.1淹水災害韌性因子說明 94
4.3.2考慮韌性指標之主成份分析 98
4.3.3基隆市淹水災害韌性分級地圖 103
4.4災害風險分析 108
4.4.1基隆市淹水災害風險分析 109
4.4.2基隆市淹水災害風險調適 115
第五章 結論與建議 120
5.1結論 120
5.2建議 121
參考文獻 122

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