臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

有關探討股利變動與未來盈餘變動之間關聯性，即股利是否存有資訊內涵此議題，從過去國內外文獻中，至今尚未有定論。另外由於行為財務學的興起，從社會心理學的角度來看人的行為如何影響決策，其中提及「過度自信」，係指人們通常會高估自己的能力，進而產生價值的誤判。本研究即以「過度自信效果」為研究主軸，探討具過度自信之經理人對股利發放的影響及經理人過度自信對股利是否具有資訊內涵進行研究。
實證結果顯示，當經理人具有過度自信之心理偏誤時，的確會影響股利發放之多寡，而傾向發放較多的股利，但在進一步區分當年股利係增加或減少時發現，此現象只存在股利增加時。亦言之，當公司決定增加股利時，過度自信之經理人會發放更多之股利。另一方面，在不區分股利變動方向時，過度自信之經理人，並不會削弱股利與公司未來盈餘之資訊內涵，惟將股利拆分成股利增加或減少時，當經理人具有過度自信之心理偏誤時，的確會削弱股利增加與公司未來盈餘之資訊內涵，惟對股利減少之資訊內涵而言，則並未成立。

Regarding the correlation between dividend changes and future earnings changes, that is, whether there is information content in the dividends, this issue has not been conclusive from the past domestic and foreign literatures. In addition, due to the rise of behavioral finance, how human behavior affects decision-making from the perspective of social psychology, mentioning "overconfidence" means that people usually overestimate their abilities and thus produce misjudgments of value. This study uses the "overconfidence effect" as the main research axis to explore the influence of overconfident managers on dividend distribution and managers' overconfidence on whether the dividends have information connotation.
The empirical results show that when the manager has the psychological bias of overconfidence, it does affect the amount of dividends, and tends to issue more dividends. However, when further distinguishing the increase or decrease of the dividend system in the current year, it is found that there is only dividend in this phenomenon. When added. In other words, when the company decides to increase the dividend, the overconfident manager will issue more dividends. On the other hand, when you do not distinguish between the direction of dividend changes, the overconfident manager will not weaken the information content of the dividend and the company's future earnings. However, when the dividend is split into dividends, the manager is overconfident. When psychological errors occur, it does weaken the information content of the increase in dividends and the company's future earnings. However, the information content of dividend reduction is not established.

謝　詞 I
中文摘要 II
英文摘要 III
目　錄 IV
表　次 VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 論文架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 股利資訊內涵假說與相關實證 4
第二節 經理人過度自信 6
第三節 其他影響公司股利發放之因素 8
第三章 研究設計與假說 9
第一節 研究假說 9
第二節 研究範圍 10
第三節 研究變數定義 10
第四節 研究模型 15
第四章 實證結果 18
第一節 敘述統計量與相關性檢定 18
第二節 股利資訊內涵假說之驗證 21
第五章 結論 32
參考文獻 33
著作權聲明 39

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三、網路參考資料
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