臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

蘇花公路是連接台灣北部和東部地區唯一的一條道路，而東部花蓮地區具有豐富的地理景觀及文化遺址，觀光產業十分發達。因此無論是颱風豪雨造成的道路崩塌，或公路防災預警系統誤報而造成的交通中斷，都會讓旅客無法進入花蓮觀光地區，造成當地商家的經濟損失。目前台灣的公路防災預警機制，是依照中央氣象局的累積降雨量及時雨量去評估是否採取封路措施，雖然公路防災預警機制能有效的降低民眾進入危險地區的機率，但也時常因為誤報而導致社會資源的浪費，進而造成無謂的經濟損失。
Lee and Ho (2009) 提出 Shallow Landslide Prediction based on Infinite Slope Model and TOPMODEL (SIMTOP 模型) ，此模型能夠高度解析集水區的地文、水文、土地等空間資訊，並配合邊坡穩定理論與地形性水文模式，進行崩塌災害模擬。因此本研究利用 Lee and Ho 的 SIMTOP 模型與台灣現行的公路防災預警系統 (公路防災機制) 進行比較，評估 SIMTOP 模型在公路防災的成本效益。本研究利用李光敦與何瑞益 (2016) 的研究監測結果，將降雨事件與災害事件進行情境分析，並計算當災害發生時可能造成的經濟損失。本研究顯示出 SIMTOP 模型的預期經濟損失小於公路防災預警機制的預期經濟損失。
最後，本研究採用成本效益分析，將 SIMTOP 模型加入現行的預警系統後，其災害造成的經濟損失可以減少 $2,622,7 元。另外，本研究使用成本效益分析計算出的淨現值為 $1,622,70 元，成本效益比為 2.62，兩種分析都顯示出SIMTOP 模型具有顯著的經濟效益。

Suhua Highway is the only road connecting northern and eastern Taiwan. The eastern Hualien area is rich in geographical and cultural sites, and the tourism industry is very developed. Therefore, whether the road collapse caused by typhoon or the traffic disruption caused by the false alarm of the highway disaster prevention warning system will make passengers unable to enter the Hualien tourist area, resulting in economic losses for local businesses. At present, Taiwan's highway disaster prevention early warning mechanism is based on the cumulative rainfall and timely rainfall of the Central Weather Bureau to assess whether road closure measures are taken. Although the highway disaster prevention early warning mechanism can effectively reduce the probability of people entering dangerous areas, it is often caused by false positives. The waste of social resources leads to economic losses.
Lee and Ho (2009) proposes Shallow Landslide Prediction based on Infinite Slope Model and TOPMODEL (SIMTOP model). The SIMTOP model can highly understand the spatial information of the catchment, such as geography, hydrology and land. With the slope stability theory and the topography-based hydrological model, the collapse disaster simulation is carried out. In the study, we compare the SIMTOP model with current highway disaster prevention early warning system and provide the cost-benefit assessment for the SIMTOP model. This study uses the research monitoring results of Lee and Ho (2016) to analyze the rainfall event and disaster events and calculate the economic losses that may occur when the disaster occurs. This study shows that the expected economic loss of the SIMTOP model is less than the expected economic loss of the highway disaster prevention early warning system.
Finally, this study uses a cost-benefit analysis to add the SIMTOP model to the current early warning system, as a result the economic losses caused by the disaster can be reduced by NTD 2,622,7. In addition, the net present value of the study using the cost-benefit analysis was NTD 1,622,70, and the cost-benefit ratio was 2.62. Both analyses showed significant economic benefits from the SIMTOP model.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 台灣公路防災預警系統簡介 5
第二節 風險評估方法之相關文獻 7
第三節 世界各國天然災害管理之經濟效益研究案例 10
第三章 研究方法 15
第一節 成本效益分析 15
第二節 情境假設 16
第三節 樣本資料 20
第四章 研究結果 24
第一節 情境機率 24
第二節 變數的計算 27
第三節 成本效益分析 41
第五章 結論與建議 42
第一節 研究結論 42
第二節 研究建議與限制 43
文獻參考 44
附錄 48

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