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研究生:董力綺
研究生(外文):Li-Chi Tung
論文名稱:動態財務分析之探討-以台灣與中國產險業為例
論文名稱(外文):A study of Dynamic financial Analysis in Non-Life Insurance Industry-example of Taiwan and China Insurers
指導教授:王財驛王財驛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tsai-Yi Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺中科技大學
系所名稱:保險金融管理系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:風險管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:107
語文別:英文
論文頁數:98
中文關鍵詞:動態財務分析財產保險清償能力測試
外文關鍵詞:DFADynamic Financial Analysisnon-life insurancesolvency test
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早期監理機關採用一些措施來監管資本,如RBC,IRIS,FAST,但是這些都是屬於靜態財務分析的工具,並未考慮外部經濟環境對保險公司可能產生的影響。動態財務分析(DFA)是一種結合公司內部財務資訊和外部經濟環境數據的財務分析工具。在全球金融危機之後,台灣學者對DFA的相關研究較少,但在金融危機之後,全球金融環境發生了變化,各國的經濟狀況與過去已有所不同。故本研究採用DFA方法來測試保險公司清償能力與財務情況。
本文採用了14間台灣本國產險公司和16間中國本國產險公司的財務數據,並使用Dynamo3.0進行未來五年公司財務狀況的模擬。本研究假設產險公司僅經營兩種業務:強制汽車責任險和汽車第三者責任險,因這兩個險種佔汽車保險整體保費收入和賠款金額最大比例。探討分析海峽兩岸產險公司動態財務經營。
本研究實證模擬出來的結果顯示,在台灣產險公司的業主權益都是每年成長的趨勢,其中,FB公司表現最佳。但在中國產險公司的業主權益中,有四間公司(BO.CI.DB.YA)出現財務惡化的趨勢。由實證結果發現,台灣公司並沒有出現財務管理不善的問題,但在中國公司則有出現失去清償能力的問題。利用DFA的模擬可以提供保險公司提早改變經營策略,並提供監理機關提早對可能失去清償能力的公司盡早進行檢查。
Early regulators used different measures to regulate capital, such as RBC, IRIS and FAST, which were tools for static financial analysis and did not consider the impact of the external environment on the insurance company. Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) is a financial analysis tool that combines internal financial statements and external economic environment data. After the global financial crisis in 2009, Taiwan scholars have less research on DFA. However, after the financial crisis, the global financial environment has changed, and the economic situation of countries has been different from the past.
This study collect the financial data of 14 Taiwan local non-life insurance companies and 16 China local non-life insurance companies, and uses Dynamo3.0 to simulate the company''s financial situation in the next five years. We assume that the company has only two business lines: compulsory automobile insurance and third party liability insurance, which account for the largest proportion of automobile insurance premium income and claim loss.
The results of our empirical simulations show that the shareholders'' surplus in Taiwan non-life insurance companies is growing every year, of which FB Company has the best performance. However, among the shareholders'' surplus China non-life insurance companies, four companies (BO.CI.DB.YA) showed a trend of financial deterioration. From the empirical results, it was found that Taiwan companies did not have the problem of poor financial management. In China companies, there is a problem of losing solvency. The use of DFA simulations can provide insurers with an early improvement in their business strategies, and can provide regulators with early inspections of companies that may lose their solvency.
中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
致謝 iii
CONTENTS iv
LIST OF FIGURES vi
LIST OF TABLES viii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Motivation 1
1.2 Research Objective 9
Chapter 2 Literature Review 11
2.1 DFA Development Background 11
2.2 DFA Related Empirical Literature 12
Chapter 3 Research Methods 20
3.1 Dynamic Financial Analysis 20
3.2 Method of DFA model 21
3.3 DFA model construction steps 23
3.4 DFA model framework 25
3.5 Main variables of the DFA model 27
3.6 Introduction of Dynamo 3.0 34
Chapter 4 Empirical Results 38
4.1 Data 38
4.2 Assumptions 39
4.3 Simulation results 42
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 60
5.1 Findings 60
5.2 Conclusions 61
5.3 Recommendations 62
References 63
Appendix1: List of Taiwan non-life insurance company''s name and code 67
Appendix2: List of China non-life insurance company''s name and code 68
Appendix3: The empirical results of Taiwan insurers'' shareholders'' surplus 69
Appendix4: The empirical results of China insurers'' shareholders'' surplus 83
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