臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以攻勢現實主義理論觀點出發，檢視川普政府對中政策之形成背景、政策目標、具體作為，同時提出三大假設：中國已具備成為潛在霸權的條件、中國正試圖成為區域霸權、美國政府的對中政策已由防禦性轉為進攻性。接著建構理論檢驗指標以驗證研究假設，包括潛在霸權的能力與戰略作為，以及既有霸權的戰略選項，再進行理論評估與檢討。
本研究的主要發現如下：
一、川普政府對中政策是國際、國內與個人層次交錯影響下的產物
川普政府對中政策主要係對習近平上台後對外的擴張挑戰的回應，同時反映了美國社會傳統保守主義、反全球化主義、反建制主義、愛國主義的興起，以及兩黨對中政策立場的轉變，也受到川普總統個人的價值信仰與領導風格的影響。
二、中國具備成為潛在霸權的能力與意圖
在潛在霸權的能力上，在經濟上中國的實質GDP已超越美國，在軍事上中國已具備和美國打一場傳統戰爭的能力。在潛在霸權的意圖上，中國正以一帶一路、中國製造2025與南海擴張企圖成為東亞太平洋與中南亞的區域霸權。
三、川普政府對中政策以進攻性的抗衡為主軸
川普政府推翻過去美國歷任政府對中的建設性交往政策，以主動出擊的政策遏制中國的擴張，其進攻性展現在自由開放同盟為基石的印太戰略、市場經濟同盟為軸心的經貿制裁、以及軍事同盟為後盾的南海軍事行動三方面，以圍堵一帶一路、打擊中國製造2025、遏制中國的南海擴張。
四、攻勢現實主義是解釋大國行為的有力工具
中國作為潛在霸權的生存戰略，即以霸權地位、財富、傳統武力與核武嚇阻為目標，以及美國作為既有霸權的生存戰略，包括在政治、經濟、軍事層面的外部抗衡與內部抗衡，均與攻勢現實主義對霸權生存戰略的理論分析相當吻合。

This thesis examines the Trump Administration’s policy toward China from the theoretical perspective of offensive realism. Three hypotheses are proposed for theoretical testing: China is capable of being a potential hegemony, China is attempting to become a regional hegemony, and U.S. Government’s China policy has turned from being defensive to offensive. Various indicators of potential power, strategic objectives, and strategic choices are devised for hypothesis testing, which is followed by theoretical evaluation and review. The main conclusions of the research discovery are summarized as below:

I. Trump Administration’s China policy is mainly driven by international, national and individual factors: The policy is a strategic response to China’s external expansion since Xi Jin-ping took power. The policy reflects the rise of conservatism, anti-globalizationalism, anti-establishmentarianism, patriotism as well as the bi-partisan convergence in tougher stances toward China. The policy is also affected by President Trump’s personal factors such as conservative beliefs, disrespect for established precedents and distaste for communism.

II. China is equipped with both the capabilities of and the intensions to becoming a potential hegemony: Regarding capabilities, China has surpassed the U.S. in real GDP and is capable of waging a conventional war with the U.S. Regarding intensions, China is attempting to become the regional hegemony in the Asia-Pacific and Central-Southern Asia by means of Belt and Road Initiative, Made in China 2025, and militarization in the South China Sea.

III. Trump Administration’s China policy is based on the pillar of strategic balancing: Trump Administration overturns the “constructive engagement” policy honored by previous administrations and instead takes on a new offensive policy of strategic balancing. The policies comprises Indo-Pacific strategy based on “free and open” alliances, trade and economic sanctions supported by market-economy alliances, and South China Sea military operations backed up by quasi-military alliances.

IV. Offensive realism is a potent theoretical tool in explaining great powers’ strategies: China’s survival strategies as a potential hegemony-with hegemonic status, wealth, traditional forces and nuclear power as major objectives-are congruent with offensive realism’s theoretical assumptions and analyses. So are the U.S.’s survival strategies as an incumbent hegemony, with internal and external balancing in political, economic, and military aspects.

第一章　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
第一節　研究動機與目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
第二節　理論與文獻回顧．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 2
第三節　研究假設與方法．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 11
第四節　研究架構與流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ．． 13
第二章　攻勢現實主義理論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．17
第一節　攻勢現實主義的理論架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．17
第二節　攻勢現實主義的理論定位．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．21
第三節 攻勢現實主義的理論缺陷．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
第三章　川普政府對中政策的形成背景．．．．．．．．．．．．．35
第一節　政策的層次分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．35
第二節　政策的中國因素．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 49
第四章　川普政府對中政策的具體作為．．．．．．．．．．．．．65
第一節　以自由開放同盟與印太戰略圍堵一帶一路．．．．．．．．66
第二節　以市場經濟同盟與經貿制裁打擊中國製造2025．．．．．． 71
第三節　以南海軍事同盟與威力展示遏制中國的南海擴張．．．．．83
第五章　川普政府對中政策的理論檢視．．．．．．．．．．．．． 91
第一節　理論檢視前的國際體系結構．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 91
第二節　假設一驗證：中國已具備成為潛在霸權的條件．．．．．． 93
第三節　假設二驗證：中國正試圖成為區域霸權．．．．．．．． 102
第四節 假設三驗證：美國政府對中政策已由防禦性轉為進攻性 ．105
第六章　結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 117
第一節　研究發現．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 117
第二節　研究限制與展望．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 125
參考文獻．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 128
壹、中文部份．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 128
貳、英文部份．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 136

壹、中文資料
一、書籍
王義桅、唐小松譯，《大國政治的悲劇》，台北：麥田出版(2014)。譯自Mearsheimer, John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton&Company, Inc( 2001)
王義桅，《一帶一路：機遇與挑戰》，香港：中華書局(2016)
王飛凌、劉驥譯，《中華秩序：中原、世界帝國與中國力量的本質》，台北：八旗文化(2018)。譯自Wang, Fei-Ling. The China Order: Centralia, World Empire, and the Nature of Chinese Power. New York: State University of New York Press(2017)
石之瑜，《社會科學方法新論》，台北：五南(2003)
包宗和，〈結構現實主義的論點、辯述與反思〉，《國際關係理論》，台北：五南(2011)
包淳亮譯，《註定一戰？中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱》，台北：八旗文化(2018)。譯自Allison, Graham. Destined for War? Can America and China Avoid Thucydides’s Trap? Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt(2017)
朱崇旻譯，《總統川普：讓美國再度偉大的重整之路，將帶領世界走向何處？》，台北：時報出版(2017)。譯自Trump, Donald J. Great Again: How to Fix Our Crippled America. New York: Simon&Schuster, Inc(2015)
吳玉山，〈權力移轉理論：悲劇預言〉，《國際關係理論》，台北：五南(2011)
何清漣，《紅色滲透：中國媒體全球擴張的真相》，台北：八旗文化(2019)
何大明譯，《沒有安全感的強國：從鎖國、開放到崛起，中國對外關係七十年》，台北：左岸文化(2018)。譯自Nathan, Andrew J. & Scobell, Andrew. China’s Search for Security. New York: Columbia University Press(2012)
明居正，〈古典現實主義的反思〉，《國際關係理論》，台北：五南(2011)
明居正，《大美霸權的浮現：後冷戰時期大國政治的邏輯》，台北：五南(2013)
林添貴譯，《轉向：從尼克森到柯林頓美中關係揭密》，台北：先覺出版(1999)。譯自Mann, James, About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton. New York: Alfred A. Knopf(1998)
林添貴譯，《2049百年馬拉松：中國稱霸全球的祕密戰略》，台北：先覺出版(2015)。譯自Pillsbury, Michael. The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. New York: St. Martin’s Griffin(2016)
林添貴譯，《南海：21世紀的亞洲火藥庫與中國稱霸的第一步？》，台北：麥田出版(2015)。譯自Hayton, Bill. The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia : New Haven: Yale University Press(2014)
林添貴譯，《南中國海》，台北：麥田出版(2016)。譯自Kaplan, Robert. Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific. New York: Random House(2014)
徐斯儉主編，《習近平大棋局》，台北：左岸時事(2016)
翁明賢主編，《論中國夢》，台北：淡江大學出版中心(2015)
高德源等譯，《誰是美國人》，台北：左岸政治(2008)。譯自Huntington, Samuel. Who Are We: The Challenge to America’s National Identity. New York: Simon & Schuster(2004)
高德源譯，《現實主義與國際關係》，台北：五南(2002)。譯自Donnelly, Jack. Realism and International Relations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press(2000)
張春柏譯，《霸權興衰史：一五○○至二○○○年的經濟變遷與軍事衝突》，台北，五南(2014)。譯自Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House(1987)
鈕先鍾譯，《戰略緒論》，台北：麥田出版(1996)。譯自Beaufre, Andre. An Introduction to Strategy. New York: Praeger(1965)
鈕先鍾著，《西方戰略思想史》，台北：麥田出版(1995)
黃裕美譯，《文明衝突與世界秩序的重建》，台北：聯經(1997)。譯自Huntington, Samuel. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York: Touchstone(1997)
葉淑貞等譯，《致命中國：中國赤龍對人類社會的危害》，台北：博大國際文化(2017)。譯自Navarro, Peter & Autry, Greg. Death by China: Confronting the Dragon-A Global Call to Action. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall(2011)
葉至誠、葉立誠，《研究方法與論文寫作》，台北：商鼎文化(2002)
蔡政文，〈國際關係理論與當前台灣國際關係應有的研究方向〉，《國際關係理論》，台北：五南(2011)
劉明福，《中國夢》，香港：中華書局(2010)
鍾友綸譯，《美、中開戰的起點》，台北：光現出版(2017)。譯自Navarro, Peter. Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books(2015)
瞿海源等主編，《社會及行為科學研究法：質性研究法》，台北：東華書局(2012)
二、期刊
王高成，〈美國國家安全戰略報告的內涵與影響〉，《展望與探索》，第16卷第1期(2018)
王崑義，〈中國的國際戰略與一帶一路的形成〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》，第12卷第3期(2016)
王緝思，〈特朗普的對外政策與中美關係〉，《中國外交》(2018年3月)
王繼舜，〈印度視角下的中國大陸一帶一路戰略〉，《戰略安全研析》，第150期(2018)
吳福成，〈中美貿易戰對中國製造2025之挑戰〉，《臺灣經濟研究月刊》，第41卷第11期(2018)
吳若瑋，〈美中貿易爭端的進展與影響〉，《經濟前瞻》，第179期(2018)
吳若瑋，〈中國大陸倡設亞投行的策略、發展與影響〉，《展望與探索》，第16卷第3期(2018)
李大中，〈美國歐巴馬政府時期的南海政策〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第18卷第3期(2017)
李世琿，〈日本印太戰略的形成、發展及影響〉，《戰略安全研析》，第148期(2018)
李瓊莉、張顥瀚，〈越南與菲律賓對中國大陸南海軍事化行動的回應〉，《戰略安全研析》，第150期(2018)
林廷輝，〈中美近期南海航行自由的爭議與觀察〉，《戰略安全研析》，第153期(2019)
林泰和，〈美國對中國政策的轉變〉，《戰略安全研析》，第153期(2019)
林泰和，〈川普的亞太戰略－地緣政治的復仇〉，《日本與亞太研究季刊》，第1卷第4期(2017)
胡敏遠，〈中美南海議題之競合－中國追求「新型大國關係」的挑戰〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第19卷第1期(2018)
韋宗友，〈中美戰略競爭、美國地位焦慮與特朗普政府對華戰略調整〉，《美國研究》(2018年第4期)
倪峰，〈常規因素與非常規因素滙合—美國對華政策的質變〉，《中國外交》(2018年10月)
徐堅，〈美國對華政策調整與中美關係的三大風險〉，《中國外交》(2018年10月)
高長，〈美中貿易戰及其對全球經貿衝擊〉，《展望與探索》，第17卷第4期(2019)
張登及，〈「再平衡」對美中關係之影響：一個理論與政策的分析〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第14卷第2期(2013)
張登及，〈中共對臺政策：層次分析與趨勢展望〉，《戰略安全研析》，第146期(2017)
張國城，〈中國航母的發展模式：攻勢現實主義的觀點〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第18卷第3期(2017)
張國城，〈從現實主義看中國航母的外交和軍事影響〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》，第9卷第3期(2013)
許碧書，〈亞太再平衡：論印太戰略與一帶一路〉，《臺灣經濟研究月刊》，第42卷第11期(2019)
陳一新，〈川普政府的美國外交政策〉，《戰略安全研析》，第151期(2018)
陳育正，〈印太戰略的發展與其未來之挑戰〉，《戰略安全研析》，第151期(2018)
陳牧民，〈珍珠鏈的虛與實：談中國在印度洋的戰略佈局〉，《全球防衛雜誌》，第352期(2013)
陳冠安、張登及，〈全球體系、區域次體系和極數國定理：攻勢現實主義的案例檢證〉，《問題與研究》，第58卷第1期(2019)
董慧明，〈中共一帶一路的軍事戰略意涵〉，《戰略安全研析》，第151期(2018)
楊昊，〈形塑中的印太：動力、論述與戰略布局〉，《問題與研究》，第57卷第2期(2018)
趙明昊，〈特朗普執政與中美關係的戰略轉型〉，《美國研究》(2018年第5期)
蔡東杰，〈美中在南海之軍事互動及其發展〉，《日本與亞太研究季刊》，第3卷第1期(2019)
蔡榮祥，〈中國崛起與南海衝突：臺灣在亞太秩序中之戰略影響〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第19卷第1期(2018)
蔡慧美、傅豐誠，〈中美貿易戰背後的中國大陸經濟體制問題〉，《經濟前瞻》，第180期(2018)
鄭端耀，〈國際關係攻勢與守勢現實主義理論爭辯之評析〉，《問題與研究》，第42卷第2期(2003)
鄭端耀，〈國際關係新古典現實主義理論〉，《問題與研究》，第44卷第1期(2005)
歐陽子惇、王冠雄，〈論歐巴馬政府南海政策執行之變化-航行自由〉，《展望與探索》，第16卷第11期(2018)
鍾欣宜，〈中國製造2025之初探〉，《經濟研究》，第17期(2017)
謝志淵，〈中共吉布地軍事基地的戰略意涵與影響〉，《戰略安全研析》，第150期(2018)
謝志淵，〈美國「印太戰略」的機遇與挑戰－兼論對臺灣影響〉，《海軍學術雙月刊》，第52卷第3期(2018)
顏慧欣，《近期美中貿易戰發展動向之研析》，〈經濟前瞻〉，第182期(2019)
三、網路資源
BBC中文網，《卡爾文森號航母歷史性訪問越南》(2018-03-06) https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-43299835
BBC中文網，《英國防大臣：可能在南海建軍事基地》(2018-12-31) https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/46723327
BBC中文網，《特朗普針對通訊業宣佈緊急狀態》(2019-05-16 ) https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-48290413
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