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研究生:黃于萱
研究生(外文):Yu-Shiuan Huang
論文名稱:政治制度、政黨實力以及政黨投入總統大選的決定
論文名稱(外文):Political Institutions, Party Size and Parties’ Decisions to Enter Presidential Elections
指導教授:李鳳玉李鳳玉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Feng-Yu Lee
口試委員:蘇彥斌蔡宗漢
口試委員(外文):Yen-Pin SuTsung-han Tsai
口試日期:2019-07-25
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:107
語文別:中文
論文頁數:123
中文關鍵詞:政黨實力總統選舉選舉制度同時選舉半總統制現任者
DOI:10.6342/NTU201902270
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儘管過去學界對政黨發展及行為已進行了數十年的研究,但他們多半將焦點放在西歐的內閣制國家上,忽略了不同的憲法結構差異可能會造成不同的政黨起源、組織及行為。且即便是將研究焦點放在總統大選所帶來的影響上,在分析層次仍只關注總體層次的政黨體系,忽略了個體層次上的政黨行為。
在人民具有直選總統權利的民主國家中,國會選舉固然重要,但總統大選才是決定一個國家執政權的最終歸依。可以想見,不論是在總統制還是半總統制國家,總統大選都會比國會選舉來的重要。而政黨能否在這樣的政府體制生存下去,與其在總統大選上的成敗密不可分。本文希望透過對總統制及半總統制民主國家的比較分析,探討政黨大小、總統的選舉制度、現任者參選、同時選舉、政府體制、聯邦制如何影響政黨投入總統大選的決定。
不同於West & Spoon(2013)使用二分變項,僅僅以5%的標準來區分政黨大小,本研究使用政黨最近一次參與國會大選所獲得的席次率衡量政黨實力,並修正兩位學者搜集自1975至2009年的23國政黨個體層次參與總統大選的資料發現:不同的總統選制對不同實力的政黨單獨參選的決定並無影響;現任者參選僅會降低實力中等政黨(席次率介於5%至30%)單獨參選的機率,並不會影響實力較小或較大政黨的參選決定;同時選舉會增加實力較大政黨(席次率10%及以上)單獨參選的機率,但不影響實力較小政黨的參選決定;相較於總理總統制,總統制會增加實力較小政黨(30%及以下)的單獨參與總統大選的機率,但不影響實力較大的政黨;不論政黨實力為何,總統議會制皆不會影響政黨參選的決定;聯邦制整體而言會降低不同實力政黨單獨參選的機率,但相較於實力較弱的政黨,資源較豐富的大黨仍有比較高的誘因單獨推派候選人參選。上述的研究發現在經過以較為合理的方式界定政黨實力二分變項以及去除總統選制為條件多數決制個案的穩健性測試後,仍獲得實證上的高度支持。
口試委員會審定書I
謝辭II
中文摘要III
英文摘要V
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機1
第二節 章節安排4
第二章 文獻回顧9
第一節 大黨與小黨的參選誘因12
第二節 影響政黨參選決定的因素15
第三節 大黨與小黨的界定標準以及資料搜集與模型選擇問題21
第三章 理論與假設27
第一節 大黨與小黨的參選誘因有無差異27
第二節 假設推導32
第四章 研究設計41
第一節 研究範圍與資料來源41
第二節 相關變數說明43
第三節 模型設計51
第五章 資料分析55
第一節 本研究之政黨參選決定模型55
第二節 穩健性測試68
第三節 不同制度組合下的政黨參選機率80
第六章 結論83
第一節 研究發現與貢獻83
第二節 研究限制和未來研究方向87
參考文獻89
附錄一97
附錄二103
附錄三107
附錄四117
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