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研究生:林咨辰
研究生(外文):Zih-Chen Lin
論文名稱:人口老化與健康保險: 以泰國為例
論文名稱(外文):Population Aging and Universal Health Insurance:the Case of Thailand
指導教授:廖珮如廖珮如引用關係
指導教授(外文):Pei-Ju Liao
口試委員:王胤琪蔡宜展
口試委員(外文):Yin-Chi WangYi-Chan Tsai
口試日期:2019-07-05
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:107
語文別:英文
論文頁數:30
中文關鍵詞:人口老化非正規部門健康保險泰國
DOI:10.6342/NTU201900982
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此篇研究為探討泰國人口老化,對其健康保險(Universal Health Insurance, UHI)的影響。本文主要使用動態一般均衡模型(Dynamic General Equilibrium),並加入了勞動生產力衝擊以及醫療支出衝擊,來探討泰國人口老化對健保制度的影響。研究結果發現,在2025年以及2050年的人口老化下,定額稅以及定額稅佔薪資的比例會增加,並導致社會福利減少。若在人口老化的情況下,政府實施擴大正式部門(formal sector)勞動力的政策,民眾租稅負擔會下降,社會福利因此獲得改善。除此之外,在人口老化的情況下,若政府調整以人計酬的醫療支出,並固定醫院費用,以人計酬的醫療支出可以調降,定額稅以及定額稅佔薪資的比例會減少,社會福利獲得改善。
This paper studies the impact of population aging on the Universal Health Insurance (UHI), which is capitation payment, in Thailand. A dynamic general equilibrium model with the labor productivity shock and medical expenditure shock is employed to estimate the impacts of population aging on UHI in Thailand. The result suggests that the lump-sum tax (ζ) and the lump-sum tax to wage ratio (ζ/w) increase in Aging 2025 and Aging 2050. Besides, the welfare decreases in Aging 2025 and in Aging 2050. In the scenarios with larger formal sector, tax burden is lower and welfare is improved. Also, we explore the policy of fixing the level of the total hospital expenditure (H) and changing the lump-sum medical subsidy from the government. We find that the lump-sum medical subsidy for young and old agents can be lower in scenarios of population aging. Additionally, the lump-sum tax (ζ) and the lump-sum tax to wage ratio (ζ/w) decrease in the Aging 2025 and Aging 2050, and the policy improves the welfare of workers.
目 錄
口試委員會審定書……………………………………………………………… i
中文摘要………………………………………………………………………… ii
英文摘要…………………………………………………………………………. iii
第一章 Introduction…………………………………………………………….. 1
第二章 The Model………………………………………………………………. 4
2.1 Demographics…………………………………………………………….. 5
2.2 Economic Informality and Labor Productivity Shock……………………..5
2.3 Health Expenditure Risk and Universal Health Insurance………………...6
2.4 The Government…………………………………………………………....6
2.5 The Hospital…………………………………………………..……………8
2.6 Production……………………………………………………..………….. 8
2.7 Preference………………………………………………………………......9
2.8 Young Agent…………………………………………………………..…...9
2.9 Old Agent………………………………………………………....………11
2.10 Recursive Competitive Equilibrium……………… ……………………12
第三章 Data and Calibration…………………………………………………13
3.1 Demographics…………………………………………………………….13
3.2 Preferences……………………………………………………………..…13
3.3 Production………………………………………………………………...14
3.4 Labor Productivity Shock………………………………………………...14
3.5 Medical Expenditure Shocks……………………………………………..15
3.6 Social Security System……………………………………………………18
第四章 Quantitative Analysis…………………………………………………..19
4.1 Benchmark Economy……………………………………………………..19
4.2 Impacts of Population Aging…………………………………………......21
4.3 Impacts of Formal and Informal Sector Ratio in Population Aging……..24
4.4 Impacts of Lump-Sum Medical Subsidy for Agents From the Government in Population Aging…………………………………………………………..24
第五章 Concluding Remarks………………………………………………….27
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………….……30
Ahuja, A., Peungchanchaikul, C., and Piyagarn, N, 2004, On monetary and fiscal policy mix over Thailands business cycles, Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper, DP/09/2004.
Attanasio, Orazio, 1999, Consumption, in J.B. Taylor and M.Woodford(eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam:Elsevier, pp.741-812.
Hanvoravongchai Piya, 2013, Health Financing Reform in Thailand: Toward Universal Coverage under Fiscal Constraints, World Bank.
Minchung Hsu, and Pei-Ju Liao, 2015, Financing National Health Insurance: The Challenge of Fast Population Aging, Taiwan Economics, Vol.43, No.2, pp.145-182.
Minchung Hsu, Xianguo Huang,and Somrasri Yupho, 2015, The Development of Universal Health Insurance Coverage in Thailand: Challenges of Population aging and Informal Economy, Social Science&Medicine, Vol.145, pp.227-236.
Minchung Hsu,and Tomoaki Yamada, 2017, Population Aging, Health Care and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, pp.131.
Tanboon, S., 2008, The bank of thailand structural model for policy analysis, Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper, DP/12/2008.
Uwe E. Reinhardt, 2003, Does The Aging of The Population Really Drive The Demand For Health Care?, Econometrica, Vol.22, No.6, pp.27-39.
Wagstaff, A. and Manachotphong, W., 2012, The Health Effects of Universal Health Care: Evidence from Thailand. , The World Bank
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