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研究生:張順興
研究生(外文):Soon Hing Chong
論文名稱:馬來西亞與東協+3貿易流量之變遷
論文名稱(外文):The Evolution of Trading Flows between Malaysia and ASEAN+3
指導教授:雷立芬雷立芬引用關係
口試委員:官俊榮劉鋼楊豐安
口試日期:2018-11-19
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學研究所
學門:農業科學學門
學類:農業經濟及推廣學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2018
畢業學年度:107
語文別:英文
論文頁數:75
中文關鍵詞:馬來西亞東協+3貿易引力模型
DOI:10.6342/NTU201804393
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This study aims to analyze the pattern of Malaysia trade relations with ASEAN+3 using gravity model via selected annual data. The major findings of this study are conveyed as follows. First of all, Malaysia has a great trade cooperation with all partner countries since year 1996 until 2009 before the global financial crisis. After the global financial crisis, the trade relations with ASEAN+3 became less related but stronger related with other countries. However, the trade relations between Malaysia and ASEAN+3 is still above normal level. Secondly, the coefficients of Malaysia trade relations with ASEAN+3 and other trade partner countries dropped in 2015 and 2016 based on the economic mass and geographical distance due to the dramatic drop of crude oil price. Thirdly, the trade relations between Malaysia and the three East Asian countries became better when they underwent the Asian financial crisis. However, during the global financial crisis, the trade relations with China and Japan have been affected, while the relationship with South Korea enhanced. Finally, the trade relations between Malaysia with the three East Asian countries decreased after the global financial crisis. It indicates that the trade relations between Malaysia with China, Japan and South Korea slowly become colder.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i
ABSTRACT ii
LIST OF FIGURES iv
LIST OF TABLES v
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background and Motivation of Study 1
1.2 Objectives of Study 5
CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW OF MALAYSIAN ECONOMY AND TRADE 7
2.1 Malaysian Economy, Exports and Imports History 7
2.2 The Trade Relations of Malaysia with China, Japan and South Korea 16
CHAPTER 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 29
3.1 ASEAN and Malaysia 29
3.2 Gravity Model 33
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY 38
4.1 Research Method 38
4.2 Empirical Model 41
4.2.1 Model 1: Overall Trade Relations 41
4.2.2 Model 2: Trade Relations between Malaysia and ASEAN+3 44
CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF EMPIRICAL STUDY 46
5.1 Data Sources and Cleaning Process 46
5.2 Empirical Results of Model 1 46
5.3 Empirical Results of Model 2 52
5.4 Policy Recommendation 57
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS 63
REFERENCES 67
APPENDIX 70
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