臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) attracts new and advanced foreign technology, know how, and the possibility for accession to the network of international production and trade. Besides, FDI is the best resource for covering the balance of payments deficit, since there are no liabilities abroad. This is the reason for transition countries to continuously make conditions for attracting inward FDI because they have balance of payments deficits. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) assessment, as well as others, foreign direct investment inflow to Southeastern Europe in the next three years will deteriorate.
Despite this general trend, good projects will always find foreign investors. That general view of FDI as a quality source of balance of payments deficit financing especially makes sense in Serbia as a transition economy of the region of Southeastern Europe, where all economies suffer from balance of payments deficit, not only in early years of transition, but also today. As a consequence of respectable FDI stock in the time of structural production changes in combination of huge public spending in countries of the region, deficit of current account remains. FDI level in aforementioned countries should be higher, especially in the years after privatization in order to create a condition for sustainable development. Countries need to be proactive about improving their attractiveness to FDI. However, many drivers of foreign investment—such as a country’s location, market size, and availability of natural resources—cannot be influenced by decisions and actions of policymakers. Furthermore, other policy-related drivers of FDI—such as macroeconomic performance, infrastructure quality, and human capital—can only be influenced in the medium- to long-run. In contrast, there are factors related to laws and institutions that countries can address and improve in the short-term.
This thesis aims to evaluate what are the most important determinants of FDIs in Serbia and to establish their correlation. The proposed method is a Multiple-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDM) model: Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL). Two questionnaires were designed in order to collect the necessary information. The first one contains questions about: age, gender, current country of residence, and education. The second questionnaire is designed to discover the relations between three dimensions: government, economy factors, and social factors; and six criteria: bureaucracy, slow progress, exchange rate volatility, inflation level, lack of skilled labor force, and mentality of local people. Our results indicated that the most influential dimension is government, and the most influential criteria is bureaucracy.

Table of Contents
ABSTRACT …………………………………………………………………………………….i
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………………………………………………………………………iii
LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………...…….vi
LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………….………………………..…vii

CHAPTER I: Introduction …………………………………………………………………….1
1.1 Motivation ………………………………………………………………………………….1
1.2 Research Objectives ……………………………………………………………………...3
1.3 Methodology ……………………………………………………………………………….3
1.4 Structure of Thesis…………………………………………………………………………4
CHAPTER II: Literature Overview……………...………………………………………….….5
2.1 Definition of Foreign Direct Investment …......………………………………………………5
2.1.1 Forms of FDIs …………………………………………………………………………..7
2.1.2 Kinds of FDIs…………………………………………………..…………….………..…..7
2.2 Encouragement and Restriction of FDIs ……………………………………………......9
2.2.1 Why and How Governments Encourage FDI ………………………………………….9
2.2.2 How Governments Discourage or Restrict FDIs ……………………….....………………..10
2.3 The Significance and Trends of FDIs for Developing Countries …………………...11
2.3.1 Trends in Developing Countries …………………………….……….……..……………..11
2.4 The Significance and Trends of FDIs for Serbia ……………….………….………………..15
2.4.1 Main Obstacles of FDIs in Serbia ……………………….……………………………...18
2.4.1 SWOT Matrix …………………………………………………………………………..19
2.5 FDI Relative Studies ………………………………………………………………………...22
2.6 DEMATEL Relative Studies ………………………………………………………………..25
CHAPTER III: Methodology …………………………………………………………………28
3.1 DEMATEL ………………………………………………………………………………..28
3.1.1 Steps in DEMATEL ……………………………………………………………………29
3.2 Comparison with Other MCDM Methods ……………………………………………...33
3.3 Advantages and Disadvantages of DEMATEL ......…………..………………………………33
CHAPTER IV: Data Analysis and Discussions ……………………………………………35
4.1 Data Collection Procedures …………………………………………………………….35
4.1.1 Influence Degree Explanation.……………………...….…………………………………..36
4.2 Data Analysis …………………………………………………………………………….36
4.2.1 Backgrounds of the Respondents …………………………………………………. 36
4.2.2 Using DEMATEL to Evaluate Criteria ………………………………………………37
4.3 Discussions and Management Applications ………………………………………….41
CHAPTER V: Conclusions, Limitations and Future Work ……………………………….43
5.1 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………..43
5.2 Future Work ………………………….………………………………………………………43

REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………..45
LIST OF APENDIXES ………………………………………………………………………….52

REFERENCES

Abdullah, L. and Zulkifli, N. (2015). “Integration of Fuzzy AHP and Interval Type-2 Fuzzy DEMATEL: An Application to Human Resource Management, Expert Systems with Applications”, vol. 42, pp. 4397–4409.
Aghion, P., Blundell, R., Griffith, R., Howitt, P., and Prantl, S. (2009). “The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics”, vol. 91, pp. 20–32
Aitken, B., Harrison, B., and Lipsey, R.E. (1996). “Wages and foreign ownership A comparative study of Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States. Journal of International Economics”, vol. 40, pp. 345–371.
Aitken, B., and Harrison, A.E. (1999). “Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela. American Economic Review”, vol. 89, pp. 605–618.
Alfaro, L. and Rodriguez-Clare, A. (2004). “Multinationals and Linkages: Evidence from Latin America.” vol. 4, pp.113-170.
Amadeo, K. (2018). “Foreign Direct Investment, Its Pros, Cons, and Importance to You” Retrieved July 5, 2018, from https://www.thebalance.com/foreign-direct-investment-fdi-pros-cons-and-importance-3306283
Amadeo, K. (2018). “How FDI Affects Your Life.” Retrieved July 6, 2018 from https://www.thebalance.com/foreign-direct-investment-fdi-pros-cons-and-importance-3306283
Antràs, P. and Yeaple, S.R. (2014). “Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade. Handbook of International Economics”, vol. 4, pp. 55–130.
Asad, M.M., Mohajerani, N., and Nourseresh, M. (2016). “Prioritizing Factors Affecting Customer Satisfaction in the Internet Banking System Based on Cause and Effect Relationships. Proc Econ Finance” vol. 36, pp. 210–219.
Bao, C. G. and Chen, M.X. (2015). “Foreign Rivals are Coming to Town: Responding to the Threat of Foreign Multinational Entry.” Vol. 2, pp. 55-60.
Baykasoglu, A., Kaplanoglu, V., Durmusoglu, Z.D.U., and Sahin, C. (2013). “Integrating Fuzzy DEMATEL and Fuzzy Hierarchical TOPSIS Methods for Truck Selection, Expert Systems with Applications”, vol. 40, pp. 899-907.
Bernard, A. B., Jensen, J.B. and Schott, P.K. (2009). “Importers, Exporters and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods. In and M. J. R. Timothy Dunne, J. Bradford Jensen (Ed.), Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data”, pp. 513–552.
Blomstrom, M., Lipsey, R.E., and Zejan, M. (1994). “What Explains Growth in Developing countries?”, vol. 5, pp. 19-24.
Blouin, J., Huizinga, H., Luc, L., and Nicodème, G. (2014). “Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure. International Monetary Fund.”, vol.10, pp 78-88.
Borensztein, E.J., De Gregorio, J. and Lee, J.W. (1998). “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?”, vol. 45, no.1, pp. 115-135.
Caves, R. 1974. “Multinational Firms, Competition and Productivity in the Host Country.”
Economica 41: 176-193.
Caves, R. 1974. “Multinational Firms, Competition and Productivity in the Host Country.”
Economica 41: 176-193.
Caves, R. 1974. “Multinational Firms, Competition and Productivity in the Host Country.”
Economica 41: 176-193.
Caves, R. 1974. “Multinational Firms, Competition and Productivity in the Host Country.”
Economica 41: 176-193.
Caves, R., (1974). “Multinational Firms, Competition and Productivity in the Host Country”, vol. 41, pp. 176-193.
Caves, R. (2007). “Multinational Enterprise and Economic Analysis (3rd edn). Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.”, vol. 7, pp. 59-77
Calvo, G. A., Leiderman, L., and Reinhart, C.M. (1996). “Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s. Journal of Economic Perspectives”, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 123–139.
Chang, K.H. and Cheng, C.H. (2010). “A Risk Assessment Methodology Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set in FMEA, International Journal of Systems Science”, vol. 41, no. 12, pp. 1457–1471.
Chang, K.H. (2014). “A More General Risk Assessment Methodology Using a Soft Set-based Ranking Technique, Soft Computing”, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 169–183.
Dalalah, D., Hajaneh, M., and Batieha, F. (2011). “A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection, Expert Systems with Applications”, vol. 38, pp. 8384-8391.
De Gregorio, Jose. (2003). “The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Natural Resources in Economic Development”, vol. 2, pp. 322-340.
De Mello, L., Jr. (1999). “Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data, Oxford Economic Papers”, vol. 51 no. 1.
Duttagupta, R., Bluedorn, J., Guajardo, J., and Topalova, P. (2011). “International capital flows: reliable or fickle. In IMF World Economic Outlook”, pp. 125–164.
EconomicsHelp.org (2016). “Advantages of Fixed Exchange Rate” Retrieved September 19, 2018, from https://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/exchangerate/advantages-disadvantages-fixed/
EconomicsHelp.org (2017). “Polices to Reduce Inflation” Retrieved December 20, 2018, from https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/42/inflation/economic-policies-to-reduce-inflation/
Feenstra, R. C., and Hanson, G.H. (1997). “Foreign Direct Investment and Relative Wages: Evidence from Mexico’s maquiladoras. Journal of International Economics”, vol. 42, no. 3–4, pp. 371–393.
Findlay, R. (1978). “Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model; Quarterly Journal of Economics”, vol. 92, pp. 1-16.
Forbes, K.J., and Warnock, F.E. (2012). “Capital Flow Waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment. Journal of International Economics”, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 235–251.
Fratzscher, M. (2012). “Capital Flows, Push Versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Economics”, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 341–356.
Gabus, A. and Fontela, E. (1972). “World Problems, An Invitation to Further Thought within The Framework of DEMATEL”, pp. 88-110.
Geng, X. and Chu, X. (2012). “A New Importance-Performance Analysis Approach for Customer Satisfaction Evaluation Supporting PSS Design, Expert Systems with Applications”, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 1492– 1502.


Girma, S., Gong, Y., and Görg, H. (2008). “Foreign Direct Investment, Access to Finance, and Innovation Activity in Chinese Enterprises. World Bank Economic Review”, vol. 22, no.2, pp. 367–382.
Global Policy Forum (2017). “Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Outflows in the Developing and the Developed Countries World” Retrieved December 11, 2018, from https://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/tables-and-charts-on-social-and-economic-policy/foreign-direct-investment.html
Govindan, K., Kannan, D., and Shankar, K. M. (2014). “Evaluating the Drivers of Corporate Social Responsibility in the Mining Industry with Multi-Criteria Approach: A Multi-Stakeholder Perspective, Journal of Cleaner Production”, vol. 84, no. 1, pp. 214–232.
Hale, G. and Long, C. (2008). “Did Foreign Direct Investment Put an Upward Pressure on Wages in China? IMF Economic Review”, vol. 3, pp. 404–430.
Harding, T., and Javorcik, B.S. (2007). “Developing Economies and International Investors: Do Investment Promotion Agencies Bring Them Together?”, vol. 6, pp. 115-123.
Harrison, A. E. and McMillan, M.S. (2003). “Does Direct Foreign Investment Affect Domestic Credit Constraints? Journal of International Economics”, vol. 1, pp. 73–100.
Hausmann, R. and Fernandez-Arias, E. (2000). “Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol”, no. 417. pp. 55.
Hsu, C.W., Kuo, T.C., Chen, S.H., and Hu, A.H. (2013). “Using DEMATEL to Develop a Carbon Management Model of Supplier Selection in Green Supply Chain Management, Journal of Cleaner Production”, vol. 56, pp. 164-172.
Invest in Serbia (2015). “Why Serbia” Retrieved November 11, 2018, from http://www.invest-in-serbia.com/why-serbia.html
INVESTED REVIEWS (2018). “Greenfield Investment vs Brownfield Investment Strategies” Retrieved August 4, 2018, from https://investedreviews.com/greenfield-investment-vs-brownfield-investment-strategies/
Investopedia (2018). “Skilled Labor” Retrieved August 6, 2018, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skilled-labor.asp
Javorcik, B.S. (2004). “Does Foreign Direct Investment increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers through Backward Linkages, American Economic Review “vol. 94, no. 3, pp. 605-627.
Javorcik, B. S. and Spatareanu, M. (2009). “Liquidity Constraints and Firms’ Linkages with Multinationals. World Bank Economic Review”, vol. 23, no.2, pp. 323–346.
Jenab, K., Sarfaraz A., Weinsier, P. D., Moeini, A., and AlAhmari, A. M. A. (2015). “I-DEMATEL Method for Integrated Manufacturing Technology Selection, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management”, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 349–363.
Li, Y., Hu, Y., Zhang, X., Deng, Y., and Mahadevan, S. (2014). “An Evidential DEMATEL Method to Identify Critical Success Factors in Emergency Management, Applied Soft Computing”, vol. 22, pp. 504–510.
Liu, H., You, J. X., Lu, Ch., and Chen, Y. Z. (2015). “Evaluating Health-Care Waste Treatment Technologies Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews”, vol. 41, pp. 932–942.
Lu, M.T., Lin, S.W., and Tzeng, G.H. (2013). “Improving RFID Adoption in Taiwan’s Healthcare Industry Based on a DEMATEL Technique with a Hybrid MCDM Model, Decision Support System”, vol. 56, pp. 259–269
Mallampally, P. and Sauvant, P. K. (1999). “International Monetary Fund, Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries”. Retrieved August 10, 2018, from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/03/mallampa.htm
Manole, V. and Spatareanu, M. (2014). “Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers and Firms’ Access to Credit. Applied Financial Economics”, vol. 24, no.12, pp. 801–809.
MoneyMatters (2018). “Factors Influencing Foreign Direct Investment in a Country” Retrieved September 25, 2018, from https://accountlearning.com/factors-influencing-foreign-direct-investment-in-a-country/
Nikjoo, A. V. and Saeedpoor, M. (2014). “An Intuitionistic Fuzzy DEMATEL Methodology for Prioritizing the Components of SWOT Matrix in the Iranian Insurance Industry”, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 439–452.
Nordea (2016). “Serbia: Economic and Political Overview” Retrieved November 2, 2018, from https://www.nordeatrade.com/fi/explore-new-market/serbia/economical-context?vider_sticky=oui
Pan, J.N. and Ngnyen, H.T.N. (2015). “Achieving Customer Satisfaction Through Product–service Systems”, vol. 247, pp. 179–190.
Patil, S.K. and Kant R. (2014). “A Hybrid Approach Based on Fuzzy DEMATEL and FMCDM to Predict Success of Knowledge Management Adoption in Supply Chain, Applied Soft Computing”, vol. 18, pp. 126-135.
Reinhart, C. M. and Reinhart, V.R. (2008). “Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present. NBER Working Paper Series”, pp. 1–68.
Shieh, J.I., Wu, H.H., and Huang, K.H. (2010). “A DEMATEL Method in Identifying Key Success Factors of Hospital Service Quality, Knowledge-Based Systems”, vol. 23, pp. 277-282.
SparkNotes LLC (2018). “What is Bureaucracy?” Retrieved August 14, 2018, from http://www.sparknotes.com/us-government-and-politics/american-government/the-bureaucracy/section1/
Sun, H. (1998). “Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 1979-96. The World Economy”, vol. 21 no. 5, pp. 675-94.
Suo, B. Feng and Fan, Z.P. (2012). “Extension of the DEMATEL Method in an Uncertain Linguistic Environment,” vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 471–483.
The Impact of FDI on the Economic Growth (2018). Retrieved November 16, 2018, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303469265_The_Impact_of_FDI_on_the_Economic_Growth_of_Serbia


The World Bank (2017). “How Developing Countries Can Get the Most Out of Direct Investment” Retrieved August 2, 2018, from http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/competitiveness/publication/global-investment-competitiveness-report
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2018). “World Investment Report 2018” Retrieved July 15, 2018, from https://unctad.org/sections/dite_dir/docs/wir2018/wir18_fs_rs_en.pdf
United Nation Statistics (2013). “Compilation of Basic Economic Statistic” Retrieved July 11, 2018, from https://unstats.un.org/unsd/economic_stat/Economic_Census/Compilation_of_Basic_Economic_Statistics.htm
Uygun, Ö., Kaçamak, H., and Kahraman, Ü.A. (2015). “An Integrated DEMATEL and Fuzzy ANP Cechniques for Evaluation and Selection of Outsourcing Provider for a Telecommunication Company.” vol. 86, pp. 137–146.
Van Loo, F. (1977). “The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Investment in Canada. Review of Economics and Statistics”, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 474-81.
Wang, Z., Mathiyazhagan, K., Xu, L., and Diabat, A. (2016). “A Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Approach to Analyze the Barriers to Green Supply Chain Management Adoption in a Food Packaging Company”, vol. 117, pp. 19–28.
Wu, S.M., Liu, H.C., and Wang, L.E. (2017). “Hesitant Fuzzy Integrated MCDM Approach for Quality Function Deployment: A Case Study in Electric Vehicle”, vol. 55, no. 15, pp. 4436–4449.
Wu, H.H and Tsai, Y.N. (2011). “A DEMATEL Method to Evaluate the Causal Relations among the Criteria in Auto Spare Parts Industry, Applied Mathematics and Computation”, vol. 218, pp. 2334-2342